It came out last week that West Virginia, which is expected to enter the Big 12 in the fall, had cancelled a non-conference series with Florida State. The fact that the Mountaineers backed out of the series doesn’t strike me as a huge deal. WVU is about to see its conference schedule pick up, and the ‘Eers needed to make room for their new league opponents. Contracts are written for this very reason. FSU will be compensated accordingly.
I’m more interested in the Seminoles’ side of the situation. FSU may be losing out on a marquee non-conference game, but if you controlled the Seminoles scheduling, would you fill that opening with another upper-tier team (assuming you could)? Or, would you find a body bag game? What would factor into your decision?
Regie Eller: I’ll chime in on this one if I may.
Honestly, Florida State has no other option but to fill the game, now, with whatever they can. And, oh yeah, by the way, Florida State wanted out of the game too. It’s statement says otherwise, but Jimbo Fisher and company–much like Saban–did not and do not want any part of scheduling the Oklahoma, West Virginia’s of the world. In today’s world of college football, there are different ways by which every school schedules; Jimbo and FSU want to dominate it’s current conference and compete for a national championship. Period.
Make no mistake about it, either, that close Oklahoma loss a year ago by the Seminoles was crucial to, at the least, one other loss, and it can be argued more, on the season.
Florida State will replace West Virginia with a cream-puff and they will further show you why they never liked what Bobby Bowden and the previous regime scheduled by never scheduling an Oklahoma-West Virginia again.
The only thing I would factor, and what will be factored by Jimbo and Randy Spetman, is adding another sure-fire win for FSU; one that will not cost FSU for the next three to four weeks.
FSU will take its check, from West Virginia, reply with a “thank you very much”, throw it into the IPF (Indoor Practice Facility) Fund and add another win to the schedule. Win, Win, Win for the Seminoles.
Kevin McGuire: Agreed. Given the timing of everything it may not be Florida State’s choice for the caliber of opponent they can schedule right now. But if I were the one making the decisions and had ultimate power to add any opponent I could I would always go for the higher caliber opponent. Florida State already has an FCS opponent on the schedule and if you want to make a claim as being an elite team, to me, you have to beat decent teams along the way. Florida State has things going in the right direction and it could just be a matter of time before they are in the running for a BCS game. If they want to truly announce their return to the top of the college football world it will take wins against marquee opponents to do so.
Michael Felder: You’ve got to play the system not the game of fan satisfaction. It isn’t about placating fans or appeasing the media, it is about amassing wins and sticking to the popular scheduling matrix of the now.
If you’re a league that plays eight conference games then you play one challenge game, one FCS game, two should win games and you get your eight standard league contests. That’s the formula. That’s how Butch Davis worked his scheduling. That’s how Saban works his scheduling. That’s how Tressel worked his schedule. That’s how Stoops schedules. Basically, that is college football scheduling right now and Jimbo Fisher gets that as well as anyone else.
For Florida State that means Florida is their challenge game, every year. It’s built in. No need to take a butt whipping or worse yet a physical beating at the start of the year when they already have the Gators at the end of the year. Put a Charleston Southern, a Sun Belt and a lower tier BCS school on the schedule and get to moving.
Regie Eller: Bingo Mike. I have heard from many FSU fans that hate West Virginia, now, being off the schedule. Of course the same fans were pissed when FSU lost an early-season set of games; but as long as we get to see a cool game in Doak, right? Some live game to game, and if you do you have lost. Jimbo, and the coaches who get it, do not, they are looking big-picture and the only thing West Virginia and Oklahoma give Florida State is increased publicity and increased, potential, injuries. Which is better? Which is worse? Florida State already gets its fair share of pub, it can afford less. Injuries, on the other hand, no one can afford that. And remember, for years Florida State played both Florida and Miami as non-conference opponents. And of course Florida will always remain as the final game fixture for the Noles. It is senseless to be scheduling another premiere non-conference opponent, if you are serious about a crystal ball.
Aaron Torres: It’s interesting, because this very topic recently came up amongst UConn fans. With West Virginia likely off both UConn and FSU’s schedules, some were wondering if it was worth going down to Tallahassee for the exposure of the program. Personally, I have no strong opinion one way or the other for UConn.
But for Florida State, I don’t really see the upside. The truth is that Mike already laid out the path for them: Go undefeated against an ACC schedule that will include wins over Clemson, likely two over Virginia Tech (including an ACC Championship Game), and Florida, and you’re almost certainly playing for a BCS National Championship. One loss and you’re likely playing for an ACC title and a trip to the Orange Bowl. So really, what’s the upside to adding a UConn, Rutgers or quality non-AQ school that has everything to gain and nothing to lose by playing you?
Regie also hit on a big point for me, which is injury. As Allen and I have discussed, while that early season Florida State-Oklahoma game was fun for fans last year, it was kind of the tipping point of each team’s season; neither was the same after that. Oklahoma muddled through a few games before losing to Texas Tech, and Florida State- without E.J. Manuel- lost to Clemson. Who knows how the season turns out differently if that game isn’t played.
In the end, the schedule is already mostly set, and I say you stick with a playing either an FCS school or a very low-level non-AQ.
Again, it’s risk vs. reward, and in this case the risk is the far bigger factor.
Kevin MGuire: The fact that Florida State always has Florida on the schedule does lessen the need to schedule an early season quality opponent, I’ll concede that. But I still think there is tremendous value in doing so in September. By scheduling a tougher opponent you are giving your team something to prepare for and use as a measuring stick for the remainder of the season. These are the kind of games that only make your team better. Does it put a little extra mental pressure on your team, players and coaches early on? Of course. It is an early test, but you can get an early look at what you have on a big stage.
The formula for Florida State still remains the same. They have a couple games they should win, and their rivalry game against Florida, and they still have to win the ACC games, which have nothing to do with non-conference games. An early-season loss out of conference means nothing in ACC play. If anything, it helps improve the chances to play in a BCS game because it could add one more big win to help move up the rankings.
If you are not scheduling a game because of a fear of injury, remember that injuries can happen in any game. It doesn’t matter who you play, because of you twist an ankle against Fordham State or Arkansas the recovery time will be the same.
Michael Felder: Kevin after seeing what Florida State went through against Oklahoma I’m not sure how you can make the injuries point. It wasn’t just a freak twisted ankle or a blown ACL, the Noles got hammered by attrition. Pounding by BCS bodies that not only cost them receivers, quarterback and linemen but quite possibly their next game against Clemson too. If they play a Kansas or a Minnesota in that spot the toll on their bodies isn’t the same.
It’s in the same vein as when we discuss with Boise State or other non-BCS teams. They can show up for one big game and it works because they don’t do it week after week. For Florida State they do have to do it week after week and scheduling in the ACC, 9 games to be exact. Making that 9 a 10 means one extra week of hell on the bodies.
Until there is standardized scheduling there really is no benefit to doing it. Wins count more than quality losses. No point in taking an unnecessary risk.
Tom Perry: There was a time when Bowden first arrived in Tallahassee that he needed to play anyone, anywhere to build the FSU brand. The Seminoles started winning and everyone took notice. I think a lot of Florida State people would like to see that mentality return, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Everyone else has hit on all of the reasons why it doesn’t make any sense … and the biggest point to me is the fact FSU already has a big-time non-conference game with Florida.
The reason WVU has been scheduling games like this for about a decade now is because the Mountaineers realized the only way they could get a spot in the big game was by having someone on the schedule that took the focus off the Big East schedule. Now that they will be in the Big 12 there will be much less reliance on the non-conference schedule.
Kevin McGuire: The Oklahoma game, though it supports the injury argument in this particular discussion, was just that; One game. Is it more physically demanding to play a top-flight program? Of course it is. Which is why they are beneficial to your program over the long haul, because it shows you just how much more you have to work and prepare. Games like this can serve as an eye opener. Remember how highly ranked Florida State was going in to that Oklahoma game? While injuries hurt (no pun intended), it brought the Seminole hype back down to earth, giving the program something to shoot for in 2012 and 2013 and so on.
Wins count more than quality losses, sure. But quality wins mean more than “regular” wins too.
Regie Eller: Kevin, I disagree.
At the end of the year, no one is actually looking at who beat who and how it happened on a grand stage. It is solely about how many wins you have to bring to the table. That is just how it is. You may get brownie points for playing, and beating, Oklahoma, but what happens when you lose? You’re penalized just the same. It does not behoove Florida State, or any team that considers itself top-flight, to schedule upper-echelon BCS opponents.
The truth is, no one can honesty afford to lose its starting quarterback and survive the season. So, why add another opponent–Oklahoma or West Virginia– that will impede that, when, in the end, it will not matter if that win was versus Oklahoma or Minnesota?
Losing your quarterback, a set of your starting wide receivers, your anchors on offensive line, and the story goes on, does not show you how much more work you need to prepare; it shows you there is zero need to schedule such a game.
Ten is always greater than nine. And it doesn’t matter how you get there.
Allen Kenney: Interestingly enough, it sounds as though FSU is shooting pretty high to fill the opening left by WVU.
Kevin McGuire: Honestly I think one thing that was critical this past season was strength of schedule. The reason Alabama played for the BCS title instead of Oklahoma State was largely influenced by strength of schedule. Simply put, their lone loss was to a higher quality opponent than Oklahoma State’s. Granted, these were conference games but the point is there, that the better competition you face, the more likely you are to be rewarded at the end of the season.
The formula can backfire on you too. Just ask 2004 Auburn. While they were playing Louisiana-Monroe and Citadel, USC was playing Virginia Tech, BYU and Notre Dame. Oklahoma was playing Oregon. Auburn had to claw their way in to a top-three ranking as the season progressed. One key non-conference game (or two?) would have vaulted them in to the mix with a more realistic chance.
Allen Kenney: Disagree there, Kevin. By any objective measure, Oklahoma State had a better strength of schedule this year than ‘Bama.
Michael Felder: Was going to say just that Allen. Oklahoma State had the clear win in strength of schedule, even with Bama playing an actual out of conference ‘challenge’ of sorts against Penn State.
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