Our buddy Beyond the Bets has the lowdown on a very early release of college football win totals for the 2012 season. The odds come courtesy of online book 5Dimes.com.
The juice is damn near extortionary, and the selection is limited. However, if you want a line on what the true college football experts think about the upcoming season, it makes for a nice start.
Check them out after the jump.
2012 college football win totals (5Dimes.com)
Alabama 10.5 (under -180)
Arkansas 8.5 (over -130)
Florida State 9.5 (o -130)
Georgia 9.5 (o -150)
LSU 10.5 (u -230)
Marshall 6.5 (u -140)
Michigan State 8.5 (o -140)
Ohio State 8.5 (o -180)
Oklahoma 9.5 (o -180)
Oregon 9.5 (o -195)
USC 9.5 (o -260)
Texas 8.5 (u -130)
West Virginia 8.5 (o -140)
A few knee-jerk reactions:
*What the hell is Marshall doing on this list?
*The odds on USC really jump out. Looks like a hedge to me.
The consensus is that the Trojans are one of the two or three best teams in the country. They should be favored in every game they play this year, which makes 9.5 seem low. Why not set it at 10.5 like Alabama and LSU? I suspect the bookies are covering their bases in case the Trojans’ depth issues do them in. Hence the big juice on the over.
*West Virginia presents an interesting proposition. The Mountaineers are facing a step up in competition this season from the Big East. A year ago, they went 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less – those things tend to swing back around a year later.
On the other hand, the ‘Eers have the equivalent of eight home games when you factor in a game at FedEx Field against the mighty James Madison Dukes.
*Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, Texas is still Texas. The Longhorns should be light years ahead of most of their schedule from a talent standpoint. In their heyday, the ‘Horns were making Bevo feed out of teams like Oklahoma St. (not Kansas St., of course).
If the last two years have soured you on UT, I don’t blame you. Even so, nine wins strikes me as imminently doable.
*I realize teams tend to underperform in the first year under a new head coach, but I just can’t see Ohio St. not getting to nine wins. What am I missing?
