When North Dakota State and Sam Houston State do battle on Saturday it will put two teams against each other that have a combined 27-1 record this season. It will also pit two teams that most people who are reading this have probably ever heard of. Neither team comes from one of the big three traditional power house conferences that have dominated the national landscape as of late (CAA, SOCON, and Big Sky). However the rise of these two teams and the way they got here may be signaling a change is near as conferences like the Missouri Valley and Southland get stronger and stronger.
This game however is about these two teams and not about their conferences. When you look at each of them you see two powerful rushing attacks that can beat you in multiple ways with multiple players. Both teams will utilize the option and misdirection to find holes in the defense and look to exploit them. Both teams also come in with very strong defenses that will be tested on every down in this game. These two teams have held up to three games thus far in these playoffs, can they make it happen just once more?
North Dakota State
The Bisons were a dominant team on offense this year, they averaged 32.36 points per game and were almost perfectly balanced as they threw for 176.43 yards per game and ran for another 177.43. They rely on the legs of star DJ McNorton and star in the making Sam Ojuri to carry the load for them. Both players are over 10 TD’s each and Ojuri is already over 1,000 yards with 1,078 for the season. McNorton is just short of 1,000 yards with 981 yards himself and I fully expect him to be over 1,000 before halftime of this game.
Leading the Bisons through the air will be QB Brock Jensen. Jensen is a nifty dual threat QB who has beat teams with his arm and legs this season. Jensen has a 13:3 TD:INT ratio on the year to go along with a 68.% completion percentage and over 2,400 yards. Jensen also scored eight more times on the ground and was able to pick up big time first downs all season long.
When Jensen drops back to pass he’s almost always looking at Warren Holloway. Holloway has 33 more catches than any other receive on this team and also leads the team in yards and scores. He, like McNorton, is expected to be over 1,000 yards before the end of the game (currently at 988). Holloway is a killer over the middle against zone defense and the Bearkats CB’s will need to try their hardest to stay in his hip pocket which isn’t easy against a smooth runner like Holloway. Another person to look for on this offense is the big TE named Matt Veldman. Veldman is a red zone monster who uses his frame well to box out targets and make the catch.
North Dakota State leads the county in scoring defense by only allowing 13.21 points per game. They have only allowed 21 points this entire post season despite playing two explosive offensive teams in Lehigh and Georgia Southern. They Bisons do it by creating turnovers, they currently rank fifth in the nation with +1.29 turnover margin per game. The Bearkats must be careful to not make mistakes against this Bison defense that loves to capitalize on them.
The turnovers all start up front with DL Coulter Boyer and Cole Jirik. Combined these two lineman have had 15 sacks and 21.5 TFL. This kind of pressure forces QB’s to often make poor decisions and force throws into coverage. When they do that it’s the ball hawking Marcus Williams who is waiting for them. Williams has seven INT’s on the year and he has already returned three of them for scores. He ranks tops in the MVFC and fourth nationally in INT’s and QB Brian Bell needs to be very aware of where Williams is at all times.
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Sam Houston would say that you can take North Dakota State’s rankings and throw them away. Sam Houston averages 39.14 points per game and has an even more dominant rushing attack. They aren’t quite as balanced as the Bisons are but when you’re as dominant as Sam Houston is, why would you need to be?
Sam Houston is led by all-everything RB Tim Flanders, the junior RB has run 1,560 yards this year and scored 22 TD’s. He ranks 15th nationally in rushing and was in the running for this year’s Walter Payton Award. The Bearkats will only go as far as Flanders can carry them. To get an idea of how important he is to this offense consider this, he not only leads the team in rushing by nearly 600 yards he is also only 45 yards short of also leading his team in receiving. The Bearkats will be as creative as they have to go be to get Flanders the ball in space.
When Flanders struggles to get going its WR/RB Richard Sincere who gets the ball, Sincere is the Bearkats version of what Percy Harvin once was at Florida. He’s more of a RB than Harvin was but he’s a quick and athletic player who they love to get the ball to. Sincere doesn’t do much in terms of route running but he’s deadly coming off the bubble screen and if you miss a tackle on him there may not be a second shot.
Brian Bell will coordinate this at times confusing and misdirection based offense. He’s an athletic player who has scored six of his own rushing TD’s to go along with his 20 TD’s and a 5:1 TD:INT ratio compared to Jensen’s 4:1. Bell’s numbers are a little inflated though because he is not asked to throw down the field very much. Most of his throws are short by design and are targeting receivers who are usually wide open with space to operate.
This Bearkat defense has been one of the most tenacious defense I have seen this season. They are ranked first this season in rush defense allowing only 69.93 rushing yards per game, rank second in turnover margin with a +2 per game, and average 6.93 TFL this season.
The Bearkats do it with a team effort no one player has more than four and a half sacks on the season or over eight and a half tackles for loss. The Bearkats though still have 97 TFL on the year. If you had to pick a player or two to watch though then there is no better pick than the twin brother Darius and Darnell Taylor.
Darnell Taylor is an absolute monster for Sam Houston State and that’s what many of us expected when he spurned an offer from the FBS and the Houston Cougars to join his twin brother at Sam Houston a few years ago. That decision is paying off to say the last as Darnell leads the Berkats in tackles with 114 and is quickly becoming a NFL prospect with his play at the DB position. His brother Darius is third on the team in tackles with 68 despite playing a reserve LB role. He is so active and aggressive when it comes to finding the ball that its hard for the Bearkats to keep him off the field. Combined the two brothers have become an incredible force registering 182 tackles, 15.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 7 PBU, 3 INT, 3 FF, and 3 QBH on the season.
Also not to be outdone we would be remiss if we didn’t mention CB Daxton Swanson will be setting his sights on Warren Holloway all day on Saturday. Swanson has eight INT’s on the year and has been shutting down WR’s in the Southland Conference all year long. Swanson v. Holloway may just be the X-Factor matchup to watch in this game. If Holloway can beat the coverage and the Bisons can establish some offense through the air this air tight defense may be forced to loosen up.
The Prediction
This game comes with possibility of being an epic match up. Neither team is going to toss the ball around a whole lot but both can certainly put up a lot of points and quickly. Look for both teams to try and establish the run against these stout defenses and the team that does very well may be the team that comes away with the win.
I like Sam Houston to complete the miracle season. I haven’t been on their bandwagon all season long but I am now, their dynamic combo on offense and defense will be too much for the Bisons who I don’t think will be able to run the ball like they need to.
Matt Elder has provided small school football content for Crystal Ball Run all fall long. To get his insight on everything small school football, the NFL Draft and more, please follow him on Twitter @MatthewCElder.
When North Dakota State and Sam Houston State do battle on Saturday it will put two teams against each other that have a combined 27-1 record this season. It will also pit two teams that most people who are reading this have probably ever heard of. Neither team comes from one of the big three traditional power house conferences that have dominated the national landscape as of late (CAA, SOCON, and Big Sky). However the rise of these two teams and the way they got here may be signaling a change is near as conferences like the Missouri Valley and Southland get stronger and stronger.
This game however is about these two teams and not about their conferences. When you look at each of them you see two powerful rushing attacks that can beat you in multiple ways with multiple players. Both teams will utilize the option and misdirection to find holes in the defense and look to exploit them. Both teams also come in with very strong defenses that will be tested on every down in this game. These two teams have held up to three games thus far in these playoffs, can they make it happen just once more?
North Dakota State
The Bisons were a dominant team on offense this year, they averaged 32.36 points per game and were almost perfectly balanced as they threw for 176.43 yards per game and ran for another 177.43. They rely on the legs of star DJ McNorton and star in the making Sam Ojuri to carry the load for them. Both players are over 10 TD’s each and Ojuri is already over 1,000 yards with 1,078 for the season. McNorton is just short of 1,000 yards with 981 yards himself and I fully expect him to be over 1,000 before halftime of this game.
Leading the Bisons through the air will be QB Brock Jensen. Jensen is a nifty dual threat QB who has beat teams with his arm and legs this season. Jensen has a 13:3 TD:INT ratio on the year to go along with a 68.% completion percentage and over 2,400 yards. Jensen also scored eight more times on the ground and was able to pick up big time first downs all season long.
When Jensen drops back to pass he’s almost always looking at Warren Holloway. Holloway has 33 more catches than any other receive on this team and also leads the team in yards and scores. He, like McNorton, is expected to be over 1,000 yards before the end of the game (currently at 988). Holloway is a killer over the middle against zone defense and the Bearkats CB’s will need to try their hardest to stay in his hip pocket which isn’t easy against a smooth runner like Holloway. Another person to look for on this offense is the big TE named Matt Veldman. Veldman is a red zone monster who uses his frame well to box out targets and make the catch.
North Dakota State leads the county in scoring defense by only allowing 13.21 points per game. They have only allowed 21 points this entire post season despite playing two explosive offensive teams in Lehigh and Georgia Southern. They Bisons do it by creating turnovers, they currently rank fifth in the nation with +1.29 turnover margin per game. The Bearkats must be careful to not make mistakes against this Bison defense that loves to capitalize on them.
The turnovers all start up front with DL Coulter Boyer and Cole Jirik. Combined these two lineman have had 15 sacks and 21.5 TFL. This kind of pressure forces QB’s to often make poor decisions and force throws into coverage. When they do that it’s the ball hawking Marcus Williams who is waiting for them. Williams has seven INT’s on the year and he has already returned three of them for scores. He ranks tops in the MVFC and fourth nationally in INT’s and QB Brian Bell needs to be very aware of where Williams is at all times.
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Sam Houston would say that you can take North Dakota State’s rankings and throw them away. Sam Houston averages 39.14 points per game and has an even more dominant rushing attack. They aren’t quite as balanced as the Bisons are but when you’re as dominant as Sam Houston is, why would you need to be?
Sam Houston is led by all-everything RB Tim Flanders, the junior RB has run 1,560 yards this year and scored 22 TD’s. He ranks 15th nationally in rushing and was in the running for this year’s Walter Payton Award. The Bearkats will only go as far as Flanders can carry them. To get an idea of how important he is to this offense consider this, he not only leads the team in rushing by nearly 600 yards he is also only 45 yards short of also leading his team in receiving. The Bearkats will be as creative as they have to go be to get Flanders the ball in space.
When Flanders struggles to get going its WR/RB Richard Sincere who gets the ball, Sincere is the Bearkats version of what Percy Harvin once was at Florida. He’s more of a RB than Harvin was but he’s a quick and athletic player who they love to get the ball to. Sincere doesn’t do much in terms of route running but he’s deadly coming off the bubble screen and if you miss a tackle on him there may not be a second shot.
Brian Bell will coordinate this at times confusing and misdirection based offense. He’s an athletic player who has scored six of his own rushing TD’s to go along with his 20 TD’s and a 5:1 TD:INT ratio compared to Jensen’s 4:1. Bell’s numbers are a little inflated though because he is not asked to throw down the field very much. Most of his throws are short by design and are targeting receivers who are usually wide open with space to operate.
This Bearkat defense has been one of the most tenacious defense I have seen this season. They are ranked first this season in rush defense allowing only 69.93 rushing yards per game, rank second in turnover margin with a +2 per game, and average 6.93 TFL this season.
The Bearkats do it with a team effort no one player has more than four and a half sacks on the season or over eight and a half tackles for loss. The Bearkats though still have 97 TFL on the year. If you had to pick a player or two to watch though then there is no better pick than the twin brother Darius and Darnell Taylor.
Darnell Taylor is an absolute monster for Sam Houston State and that’s what many of us expected when he spurned an offer from the FBS and the Houston Cougars to join his twin brother at Sam Houston a few years ago. That decision is paying off to say the last as Darnell leads the Berkats in tackles with 114 and is quickly becoming a NFL prospect with his play at the DB position. His brother Darius is third on the team in tackles with 68 despite playing a reserve LB role. He is so active and aggressive when it comes to finding the ball that its hard for the Bearkats to keep him off the field. Combined the two brothers have become an incredible force registering 182 tackles, 15.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 7 PBU, 3 INT, 3 FF, and 3 QBH on the season.
Also not to be outdone we would be remiss if we didn’t mention CB Daxton Swanson will be setting his sights on Warren Holloway all day on Saturday. Swanson has eight INT’s on the year and has been shutting down WR’s in the Southland Conference all year long. Swanson v. Holloway may just be the X-Factor matchup to watch in this game. If Holloway can beat the coverage and the Bisons can establish some offense through the air this air tight defense may be forced to loosen up.
The Prediction
This game comes with possibility of being an epic match up. Neither team is going to toss the ball around a whole lot but both can certainly put up a lot of points and quickly. Look for both teams to try and establish the run against these stout defenses and the team that does very well may be the team that comes away with the win.
I like Sam Houston to complete the miracle season. I haven’t been on their bandwagon all season long but I am now, their dynamic combo on offense and defense will be too much for the Bisons who I don’t think will be able to run the ball like they need to.
Matt Elder has provided small school football content for Crystal Ball Run all fall long. To get his insight on everything small school football, the NFL Draft and more, please follow him on Twitter @MatthewCElder.
