Don’t call it a comeback.
No seriously, don’t.
It sucks when you hit a gambling cold streak. But when you finally get off it, it’s like the first time you wake up drunk from the night before in college. You feel a little weak still, but you’re alive. God dammit, you’re alive.
Last week: 4-2
Overall: 13-20-1
Quick thoughts
– CEO Ben Koo looks like a genius with Ohio St’s big win in Illnios. I bet Illinois, and Ben stopped in to the comments last week to own me. That is why he is a CEO folks. Man.
– Todd Graham and Pitt. Yea, might be a quick marriage.
– A tough time of year to bet games. Bettors fatigue setting in. Good news though. In two weeks some teams will really start mailing it in.
On to the picks.
Kansas State -10 @ Kansas
Such great value in this one. Kansas St. is pretty much on the cusp of the Top 10. They have flown under the radar all season long. Usually you’d think this is a trap game (KSU hosts Oklahoma next week) but Bill Snyder is too good of a coach to let that happen.
Auburn @ LSU Under of 47.5
Tons of important LSU players suspended for this one including their leading rusher. Also two trends:
– Under is 4-0 in Auburn’s last four games.
– Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these two.
Looking at a 20-13 type of game that will safely fall below the over/under line.
Wisconsin @ Mich St Over of 49
ESPN had a great show about Wisconsin called “depth chart.” It was an inside look at the Badgers. It was hard to not come away respecting the program in Madison. QB Russel Wilson is a stud, he seems determined to not let Wisconsin lose. On the flip side, Michigan State’s last game went under with Michigan. Wisconsin’s offense is a little better than Michigan’s and they put up at least 28.
Tons of trends point towards to the over:
– Over is 5-0 in Sparty’s last five games as a home underdog.
– Over is 8-1 in Wisconsin’s last 9 games as a favorite.
Oklahoma St -6.5 @ Missouri
Against my better judgement, I am taking the Cowboys. Brandon Weeden didn’t play great last week, so I’m thinking this week he blows Missouri’s doors off. If you take this game, go easy on it. Missouri isn’t awful. If this spread drops to 5 ½… RUN! Like Missouri to the SEC.
Get more from Derek at The Pensblog.
