All week long, the staff at Crystal Ball Run is debating college football’s hottest topics, in a segment we call the “Meeting of the Minds.”
Yesterday, the guys debated about which player they would take first overall if college football had an imaginary Fantasy Draft, and followed it up later with a heated debate about whether or not TCU will succeed when they join the Big East.
Today we look at the Big Ten, and ask the question: With all the troubles surrounding Ohio State right now, which program will benefit the most?
Aaron Torres: It appears as though, despite avoiding major NCAA sanctions, THE Ohio State University probably will be taking a step back over the next couple years. A probationary period (likely involving some kind of scholarship reductions), combined with head coaching uncertainty for at least this recruiting cycle, probably means that the days of Ohio State pumping out 10 win seasons are limited for the foreseeable future. The Buckeyes won’t fall to the bottom of the Big Ten standings, but they might not be overwhelming favorites (like they have been the last few years) anytime soon.
The question is, assuming Ohio State takes at least some moderate step back (even if it’s just to the pack with the rest of the Big Ten), who is the program which you think is most likely to benefit?
A strong case could be made for Wisconsin, Nebraska or Michigan State, but to me the clear winner is Michigan. The Wolverines seem to be stable at head coach in Brady Hoke, and he was smart enough to surround himself with much more competent assistants than Rich Rod ever did. Getting Greg Mattison to coach the defense was nothing short of a coup. Add in the fact that recruiting has been off the charts early, and the fact that the Michigan “name” allows them to get guys nationally that others (Wisky, MSU etc), might not, and to me the Wolverines are the big winner in the mess that has come about in Columbus.
What are your guys thoughts?
Michael Felder: I’m going to take Wisconsin here. Not just because they’ve got Russell Wilson this year and have a legitimate BCS Championship shot but because they are the team best set up from an on-field, infrastructure and divisional standpoint to capitalize on the Buckeye’s setback. Penn State has a Joe Pa problem and until that gets corrected call me “ye of little faith” when it comes to the Nittany Lions.
Wisconsin is in the Ohio State division of the B1G so their path to the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis goes through Columbus. Removing the “league favorite,” tag from the Buckeyes through scholarship reductions, a possible bowl ban and the recruiting issues that come with all of it, means Wisconsin’s route just got a little bit easier.
Once you get in the building you’ve at least got a chance.
Tom Perry: While I agree Wisconsin benefits from the potential slide at Ohio State … Michigan is going to benefit more in my estimation.
The Wolverines have the potential to come back to Ohio and recruit some of the better players like they did in 1990s. Right now, Michigan’s program is on more stable footing than Ohio State, and that’s going to be a positive on the recruiting trail.
Michigan also benefits because its rival has taken a hit and there’s a chance to close the gap. The Wolverines are the real winner.
Aaron Torres: Another one we see eye-to-eye on Tom!
As for for Wisconsin, here’s my only argument against the Badgers: Can they, or do they recruit the type of athletes that will keep them consistently in the 11-1, 10-2 top of the standings range? Honestly, I’m not so sure.
Look, I love Bret Bielema, and love what they did last year. He obviously has a system that works. But to some degree, he also struck a little lightning in a bottle last year, when he returned an entirely intact offensive line, and senior quarterback who knew the system, and made just enough plays when they needed him to. It was a formula for success that I’m just not sure they’ll have long term, especially if Michigan can start recruiting again like they did at the end of the Lloyd Carr era.
Now does that mean I think Wisconsin will be better than Michigan this year? Of course not. But big picture, in 3-4 years I could see a scenario where they most consistently are.
Allen Kenney: I don’t have any skin in the game at State College, so I don’t have a strong feeling about Joe Pa. That said, whether you want him to stay or go, it seems awfully clear to me that his time as head coach is drawing to a close.
Once the Paterno era ends, I suspect that gig will draw interest from some strong candidates. If Penn State can land a name candidate – Urban Meyer? – the Nittany Lions could make some strides.
So this one is contingent on a complete guess that Joe Pa is going to hang ’em up, but I’ll say Penn State.
Aaron Torres: Penn State is such a fascinating place to me in the sense that about 40 different DI coaches have been angling for that job, the way that a bunch of brothers and sisters fight over an inheritance for a parent whose about to bite the dust. Just off the top of my head, I know that Randy Edsall, Greg Schiano and Al Golden (amongst many others) were all thought to be hanging around just hoping Paterno would retire.
And interestingly, to the point you made Allen, I don’t think any of them will get it. Especially with a bigger name like Meyer or Dan Mullen (whose name I have heard) getting the call. With the program in the right hands, this is a “sleeping giant,” in the sense of a team that can not only compete for Big Ten championships, but National Championships consistently too.
The problem is, when will that guy get the chance? I know common logic says that Joe Pa doesn’t have too many good years left, but haven’t we been saying that for like 15 years? Didn’t we think he was done in 2002? Here we are 10 years later, and the old man is going strong.
That’s my only concern with taking Penn State here. Until I see the old man moved to a home, I don’t think they’ll be much more than a consistent 7-8 win team with the chance for things to break right and win a Big Ten title every 3-4 years.
Allen Kenney: I don’t think anyone in the PSU camp is “rooting” for the old man to go. But I do think that if you loaded Happy Valley up with truth serum, you’d find a strong majority of fans wish he’d step down.
Aaron Torres: Allen, I actually happen to agree. I’ve talked to more than one Penn State fan who has said the same. There are plenty of people who will admit that the sooner the Joe Pa era ends, the better.
So with that in mind, nobody besides Tom and me is buying the Brady Home kool-aid? So much of college football is timing, and I think his couldn’t be any more impeccable. Right coach, right time, right as their biggest rival is taking a step back.
Plus after the debacle that was the Rich Rod era, I think Hoke gets more time to figure things out than others might, in the same situation.
Michael Felder: Aaron, I see what you’re getting at with Michigan but the problem is they’re going through Nebraska, Michigan State and, if they can get back on their 2009 grind, Iowa on their side of the division. Yes, Ohio State uncertainty will help them in recruiting but I don’t think it paves the way to Indy any more clearly for them considering they’ll be scrapping on a totally different side of their division.
Matt Yoder: Being only a short bike ride away from THE Ohio State University, the one program Bucknuts fear most in the new B1G is far and away Wisconsin.
Nebraska is still a bit of a mystery for Big Ten country, Michigan State has to prove something beyond their one year wonder status, PSU is an intriguing choice as possible heir to the throne but as you guys said there is so much long-term uncertainty with Joe Pa, Iowa desperately needs some good mojo again, and Michigan has a major, major rebuilding project on their hands post Rich Rod. In fact, Michigan has become such an embarrassment that some OSU fans secretly want Brady Hoke to have moderate success just so it actually means something to beat Michigan again. Did you know Purdue has beat Ohio State twice to Michigan’s once since 2002?
But if we look throughout OSU’s run of dominance the last decade, no program has given the Buckeyes the consistent problems Wisconsin has. (Although we’re all discounting the odd chance that Ohio State somehow circles the wagons and win the league again this year, unlikely but conceivable.) The Badgers have more wins against OSU since the national title win in ’02 (three) than any Big Ten team. Twice those wins ended unbeaten seasons for Ohio State, both in Madison. They also have more B1G wins than anyone not named Ohio State the last five years (27), won the conference last season, and have built a consistent winner under Bret Bielema.
Now with OSU reeling and Wisky on the same side of the divisional split, the cards are laid out perfectly for the Badgers to take a firmer hold on a claim for Big Ten superiority and drive the knife into Brutus Buckeye a little deeper. If Wisconsin wins in Columbus this year and gets to that first Big Ten title game, we may actually see Wisconsin-Ohio State become the B1G’s premier rivalry game.
Aaron: Matt, excellent insight, and a lot of the reasons you mentioned are reasons why I stayed away from selecting certain teams: The uncertainty at Penn State, Michigan State needing to prove themselves over the course of time (were they a good “team,” or are they now a good “program.” Big difference), and Iowa’s inconsistency are reasons why I couldn’t select them.
In the end, it looks like Wisconsin is the clear winner here. The biggest advantage that they have going is that they’re already “there,” so to speak. Penn State can get “there.” Michigan State might be on their way “there.” And Michigan will eventually get “there.”
But Wisconsin already has the coach, system and players to not only succeed (they’ve already done that), but to continue to add onto that success. I think I’ve been swayed their way!
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