After the intial success of our “Meeting of the Minds,” feature a few weeks ago, the staff at Crystal Ball Run has decided to bring it back, for a once weekly debate, centered on the biggest storyline entering the weekend.
This week, the Crystal Ball Run staff takes the simple, yet complex question of this: Is there a downside to big, Week 1 games in college football?
Q. There is nothing more exciting for college football fans than a great, opening weekend game. Last year, Virginia Tech-Boise gave us maybe the best game of the entire season, and TCU-Oregon State and LSU-North Carolina weren’t too shabby either. The year before, Tech-‘Bama was a classic, and in 2008, ‘Bama-Clemson set the tone for the Tide’s resurgence.
With that said, there is one major consequence to a huge, Week 1 college football game. That of course is being on the wrong side of the final score. A loss in Week 1 can all but derail season, as seen with Virginia Tech last season. Sure they ended up winning the ACC. At the same time, their National Championship hopes were put on life support after the Boise loss, and eliminated a week later against James Madison.
So with that, here’s the question: Taking your allegiance as a fan to a particular school out of it, are opening week games really the best thing a college football program can do for its players?
Aaron Torres: Personally, I think you’re looking at two different variables here. Are they fun for fans? Of course. But if you’re a coach, AD or player, are they necessarily what’s best for your particular program? I say no.
Take Oregon this year for an example. The Ducks are believed by everyone to be the favorites in the new Pac-12, and with a win opening night against LSU may become the favorites to win the National Championship. Other than a trip to Stanford in conference play, there won’t be a game Oregon isn’t favored in for the rest of the year. Assuming of course, there are no catastrophic injuries.
Still, if you asked Chip Kelly if he really wanted this game- in Week 1 none the less- I bet he’d say no. It’s bad enough that he’s breaking in almost entirely new offensive and defensive lines, but to do it against one of the most physically imposing teams in the country? That seems like a big, fat, “no thank you,” to me. I’d guarantee that if you gave Chip some truth serum, he’d probably like to get a few cupcakes against smaller, crappier schools before having to face a school like LSU.
And that’s where the paradox lies. These games great for the fans, yes. But if Oregon loses (or LSU for that matter), the fans don’t care about how “great,” it is for everyone else. Just that their team lost. For Kelly that might not be a huge deal, but for someone like Mark Richt, whose job might literally be lost if his team loses the first two games of the season, it could be devastating.
In conclusion, I say they’re fun for the fans. Not necessarily for the participants.
Michael Felder: In thinking about the answer here I’m going to rule out the fans entirely. It’s great for them regardless of how much the losers bitch about the outcome.
For teams, coaches, ADs and players the games’ take on their meaning after the fact. Going into the game everyone is equally excited. Clemson was just as pumped as Bama in 2008. Cal was just as amped as Tennessee in 2006 and 2007. Virginia Tech and Boise State in 2010 both saw the game as “their” statement for the nation.
After the game? That’s a different story. The winners of big time non-conference games see their season get off to a great start, with momentum being sustained and buzz floating around the program. For the losers? The year can get long. Clemson saw the dismantling turn into a problem they couldn’t fix, ultimately firing Tommy Bowden. Virginia Tech saw their issues compounded by a loss to James Madison on short rest and an ultimate destiny of never climbing higher than 13th in the BCS rankings, despite boasting the nation’s fourth longest win streak at 11 games through championship week.
The point being, if you schedule the games, win them. You lose and it all goes downhill.
Tom Perry: Clearly the coaching staff would like to have a week to iron out a few wrinkles and play a “confidence-building” game. Georgia is in an odd predicament this year. With all of the issues surrounding Mark Richt, the Bulldogs could really use a win over Boise in the opener. However, if you asked Richt and the players if they’d take a loss against Boise, but get past South Carolina the next week I’d say they would take it. The next game is much more important to Georgia than the opener is to Boise. Plus, teams like Virginia Tech and now Georgia go into this game with a lot of pressure to represent the BCS against Boise. We saw how well Oregon handled it in back-to-back season openers.
I love having some games worth watching in the first week, but I understand why everyone would love to avoid an Oregon-LSU match up to start the season
Matt Yoder: Generally, I would want to feast on the Akron’s, Louisiana-Monroe’s, and San Jose State’s of the world for at least a week or two before I went to tackle LSU or Oklahoma. With no preseason, these huge week one games are a gamble for both teams. Is it worth the risk though? It depends from program to program and game to game.
Take a look at this week’s biggest games to start the season – LSU vs. Oregon and Boise State vs. Georgia. For Boise, they have to go out and get this game in Atlanta because it’s their one chance to beat a BCS team. With their experience and schedule the rest of the way, this may be their national title play-in. Of course you want this game against Georgia because without it, there’s a huge hole on your resume. However, if I’m Mark Richt with a young team maybe not ready for the spotlight, I’m a little more hesitant for a huge Week 1 tilt. Same thing goes for the Will Lyles Bowl. Oregon has a team that just went to the title game with an experienced, dynamic offense and a Heisman Trophy candidate. LSU is a great team, but just had their QB arrested this week. The early game probably favors Oregon there.
As a fan though, I love the opening week monster games. And for the teams, a loss isn’t exactly a killer because we all know it’s better to lose early than late.
Allen Kenney: As an Oklahoma fan, I remember hearing the bitching after the Sooners lost their opener – and a Heisman-winning quarterback – in 2009 to Brigham Young in a made-for-TV game at JerryWorld. Given that OU already had a marquee non-conference game at Miami on the schedule that year, the thinking was that a body bag game against a Sun Belt team would have better served the team.
That makes sense to me… if you’re a complete chump. If you’re worried about playing a team because you’re afraid you will lose, you should probably get out of the game. That’s why you’re there.
Pride aside, different factors play into scheduling, but I think that if you can schedule big, you should do it. For one thing, contrary to popular opinion, the BCS does reward teams for playing better competition. If you have designs on a national title shot or at-large bid, playing a good non-conference game is a nice thing to have on the resume.
Also, in terms of marketing your team in the BCS race, a good game early allows you to “frame the debate.” Like the saying goes, it’s a chance to make a good first impression. For instance, in 2008, Southern Cal flew across the country on opening weekend and drop-kicked Virginia. All of a sudden, the Trojans became the consensus No. 1 team in the nation. Last year, Pat Forde’s “bus” campaign behind Boise State gained a ton of steam by virtue of the Broncos beating Virginia Tech on Labor Day.
Michael Felder: Co-sign Allen’s use of “framing the debate” in this discussion. The fact of the matter is the people who complain about these games are people who have lost or think they might lose. The next Tide fan I hear complaining about scheduling Virginia Tech will be the first.
Aaron Torres: Agree with everything that’s been said, and what’s so fascinating to me, is that everyone has a different reason to schedule them.
As an example, let me expand on something Matt said earlier. He mentioned how Boise “needed” the game with Georgia, and he’s right. It’s likely the Broncos only chance to play a big-time, BCS-level school, and potentially earn street cred that they’ll carry with them throughout the season. Same with TCU’s win over Oregon State last year and BYU’s victory against Oklahoma the year before (sorry Allen).
At the same time, what’s just as interesting is that Georgia “needs” this game just as must as Boise does. You know how I know that? Because Mark Richt said so himself. To me, that was the most fascinating, under-reported quote from the entire summer. When Mark Richt went on the record and said that Georgia needed Boise’s name to get the ‘Dawgs “back,” into the national college football discussion. Interestingly, I think he’s right. When was the last time we talked about Georgia as a real relevant entity? Probably their opener with Oklahoma State two years ago.
Boise and Georgia needed each other, and similarly, TCU and Baylor (who also play each other in Week 1) need each other as well. For Baylor, beating TCU would be a bigger feather in their cap in the eyes of college football fans than beating just about anyone in the Big XII except maybe Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and to a smaller degree A&M and Texas. Likewise for TCU. Even if Baylor isn’t that good, it’s just one more AQ notch on their bedpost.
Even though it’s a conference game the same argument can be made for Miami and Maryland. Taking out the idea of Miami’s grease fire, neither had much pub coming into the year, and will get more by winning (even if it’s Maryland) than they would’ve schedule Akron or New Mexico State.
That is also why we should give both LSU and Oregon credit. For all the crap that we’ve given these two teams about the off-the-field problems, both have a lot to more to lose by getting beat Saturday, than they do to gain if they’re victorious. Both are national entities already. Both are already in our consciousness. Both have tough enough schedule as it is. And both are in the National Championship hunt without their trip to JerryWorld.
Those two need each other about as much as I need more fried food in my diet, yet they’re playing each other anyway.
We as college football fans are lucky because of it.
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