Some are calling it the “Matchup of the Century.” Others, “Saban Bowl V.” And still some, “The Game That May End the World As We Know It.”
Whatever your preference, Saturday night, in Tuscaloosa is not only the biggest regular season game in years, but maybe in decades. Rarely has a game featured this much talent on the field, this much intrigue off of it, and this much coaching personality on the sidelines. LSU and Alabama. Saban and Les. No. 1 and No. 2. Who’s your pick?
Whoever it is, here are 10 key stats which could dictate Saturday’s winner:
6.6: What’s the significance of 6.6? Well, if you’re thinking it’s the number of players that Nick Saban makes cry in an average practice, I’m sorry to say, you’re wrong. I think.
Instead 6.6 is the number of yards that Trent Richardson is averaging per carry this year. The Heisman front-runner (in this writer’s mind) now has 989 yards on the season, with 17 touchdowns, this despite the fact that he shares carries with Eddie Lacy, and often finds himself on the bench watching as a spectator come the fourth quarter of most of Alabama’s blowouts. All things considered, not too shabby.
But Saturday Richardson will likely play all 60 minutes, and is simply the biggest X-factor in this game for the Crimson Tide. There will never be anyone who completely stops Trent Richardson (even an invading Army would have no shot), but LSU needs to at least slow him down. You know, if they want to win and all.
Really though, if there’s one team that is best equipped to try and slow down the Richardson Express, it’s the Bayou Bengals. The Tigers are third in the country in rush defense, allowing just 76 yards per game, thanks to a ferocious front seven that’s as good as any in the country (except interestingly, maybe Alabama’s). On the edges, the pair of Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo have been devastating, and behind them are a pair of phenomenal linebackers in Stefoin Francois and Karnell Hatcher.
Basically, if Richardson gets those 6.6 yards per carry (or anything close), it’s going to be a long night for LSU.
But if they can hold him in check? The game could go either way.
39.3: Over the years, LSU has been known for two things under Les Miles.
Well, two things besides grass eating and fake punts anyway.
Those two things are running the ball and playing defense. Nobody is better at winning ugly than LSU is, and in the past you’d be more likely to see Nick Saban singing karaoke then you would seeing the Bayou Bengals putting up big points on anyone.
Only that’s exactly what they’ve been doing all season, with that 39.3 representing the number of points per game LSU is scoring this year. Forget “running the ball and playing defense,” the new LSU Tigers are about “scoring, and scoring in bunches.”
And what’s most impressive beyond that raw stat of 39.3 points per game is this: LSU has only gotten better over the course of the season. Since winning a low scoring 19-6 slugfest at Mississippi State in Week 3, LSU has averaged 41 points per game, and haven’t scored less than 35 points in any of those five games.
These aren’t your daddy’s LSU Tigers.
70+: Staying with LSU’s offensive success, a big thanks to the Tigers offensive explosion has to go to this number right here. Seventy represents Jarrett Lee’s completion percentage in LSU’s last three games. He hasn’t been under that number since an October 1 game against Kentucky.
And since I’m feeling friendly today, let me throw out another bonus stat on Lee: In his 155 pass attempts this season, Lee thrown a grand total of one interception. It came in the fourth quarter against Mississippi State when LSU had a comfortable lead in hand, and obviously had no impact on the final outcome.
But while that stat might not mean a whole heck of a lot to you, it’s significant to LSU fans all over the country. After all, it was just a few years ago when Jarrett was known as “Pick-Six Lee,” when he threw 16 interceptions as a freshman in 2008.
Needless to say, he’s come a long way.
8: Staying with the quarterback theme, how about eight; the number of career starts Alabama’s A.J. McCarron has made.
Of course with those eight starts does come one big caveat. In the sophomore’s defense, for what McCarron lacked in experience entering the season, he’s made up for in poise. Not only has he exceeded most people’s expectations, he’s crushed them, and entering Saturday’s game is completing 67 percent of his passes, with 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Not to mention that for a guy who was only expected to be a “game-manager” in 2011, Saban and offensive coordinator Jim McElwain have opened the playbook, and McCarron has responded, maybe most impressively doing it against quality competition. Of his eight wins as a starter, three were against clubs that rank in the Top 30 nationally in total defense, with all three on the road. They were at Penn State, at Florida and….(are you ready for this?)… at Vanderbilt. Yes, those Vandy Commodores.
Still, as good as those defenses are, none has quite the level of talent, skill and sense of the moment that LSU does.
Speaking of which…
+15: You know what +15 is? It’s LSU’s turnover margin, which is second nationally behind only Oklahoma State. LSU has recovered seven fumbles with 11 interceptions, while only turning the ball over three times.
And really, that might be the most underrated part of this LSU defense right now. Beyond just the speed and NFL skill, is that not only do the Tigers boast a good defense, but an opportunistic one.
As for Alabama, well they’re not nearly as much.
Although on second thought…
44: Who cares about how many forcing turnovers, when you’re basically not giving up any yardage or points at all? ‘Bama isn’t allowing much of either, and where they’ve been most impressive is against the run. The Crimson Tide are allowing just 44 yards per game on the ground, which not only ranks them No. 1 in the country, but is nearly twice as good as their closest competitor (Cincinnati is ranked No. 2, allowing 72 yards per game. What a bunch of bums!).
And while we’ve discussed LSU’s nasty defensive front at length, how about Alabama’s? The names roll off the tongue as easily to us college football fans, as they will to NFL fans in a year or two. Four guys who I have no doubt will be playing on Sunday’s are Josh Chapman, Jesse Williams, Damion Square and Quinton Dial, and well, those are only the defensive linemen! The Tide could very well have the best linebacking corps in the country too with Dont’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw and others. As for the defensive backs— well, actually, I’ll just stop, since I’m probably making LSU fans sick to their stomachs right now.
8 (Again): Alright, so now that I’ve terrified LSU fans by discussing the ‘Bama defense at length, let me also add an addendum and say that if there’s one team in football (and yes, I’m including NFL teams in this discussion) who can handle the Crimson Tide’s ferocious defense, it appears to be LSU’s.
That’s because for all the talk about Alabama’s offensive line being the best in college football, a pretty compelling case could be that LSU’s has been better. Through eight games, LSU has allowed just seven sacks a game, which ties them for 12th in the nation. For comparison’s sake, Alabama has allowed 12.
Now that’s not to say Alabama’s offensive line is bad, since it obviously isn’t. It’s just a fun comparison, and something to make you remember that these two offensive lines are more even than most people realize.
38th: Of every stat in college football that doesn’t have to do with LSU or Alabama, maybe the most incredible is this: In 47 trips to the red zone this year, the Stanford Cardinal (yes, as crazy as it sounds, people do actually play football outside the deep South) have scored 47 times. Meaning that every single time the Cardinal have gotten into the red area of the football field, they’ve gotten at least three points. LSU meanwhile is ranked No. 2 in that category, converting 38 of 39 red zone trips into points.
But Alabama? Well, they’re actually pretty average, ranking 38th nationally, and scoring in only 85 percent of their trips to the red zone. And while that number isn’t bad, it does mean that six out of the 41 times that the Crimson Tide have found themselves inside of the 20, they’ve come away empty-handed.
Points will be at a premium Saturday, and neither team can afford to give any away.
LSU seems less likely to do that.
7: Come on now, you didn’t think I could let an entire preview happen without mentioning Ole No. 7, did you? Yes, I’m talking about the Honey Badger himself, Mr. 
Tyrann Mathieu.
Now for those of you who aren’t regular readers of mine, just understand that there isn’t a person on this planet who loves the guy more than I do, including his own parents. And for the record, I wasn’t late to join the party either; if anything, I was setting up decorations before the invitations were even sent out. I even named Mathieu the best defensive back in the SEC before the season even started. Seriously, that happened.
And thankfully for me, Mathieu has made me look good this fall. On the season, he has been a one-man wrecking crew (or maybe the appropriate nickname would be “Demolition Man,” given his haircut), with two interceptions, five tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, and three fumble recoveries. Really though, what makes Mathieu great is the things you can’t measure in stats. He’s become the single biggest defensive terror in college football, the guy that makes opposing offenses say “where the heck is that dude lined up,” not to mention the one person who has done more to help change the national perception of honey badgers than anyone else. Really, Mathieu is a man of any talents.
Simply put, if Trent Richardson is the most important player for Alabama to win this game, Mathieu is the most significant for LSU.
1: No number is more important on Saturday than the Number 1. It’s what’s at stake not only in the SEC, but in all of college football. You know that, I know that, even Les Miles’s pet chimpanzee knows that. (Ok, so maybe Les doesn’t have a pet chimpanzee. It’s fun to think about though, isn’t it?)
So who’s No. 1?
We get to find out soon enough.
For all his opinion, insight and articles, be sure to follow Aaron Torres on Twitter @Aaron_Torres.
