(Editor’s note: To say the heat is on Georgia Bulldogs coach Mark Richt in the wake of a season-opening loss to the Boise State Broncos would be an understatement. We asked the guys from Coaches By The Numbers to assess Richt’s coaching chops for us to see if the criticism is warranted.)
Before the final second on the clock ticked off the scoreboard in Georgia’s opening season loss to Boise State, the Dawg Nation was already deep in thought about who was going to be the next head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs. Mark Richt has had back-to-back seasons with five-plus losses, and the natives are restless to say the least. The word “fan” is just nickname for a “FANatic,” so is it really time for coach Richt to start calling realtors about putting his house on the market?
As always, let’s dig into some numbers and see what conclusions we can come up with. Here is a quick snapshot of Georgia head football coaches (post-World War II with a minimum of 5 years experience) prior to Mark Richt taking over:
| Coach | Years | Win % |
SEC Championships |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wally Butts | 1939-1960 | 59.57% (140-86-9) | 3 |
| Vince Dooley | 1964-1988 | 69.69% (201-77-10) | 4 |
| Ray Goff | 1989-1995 | 56.79% (46-34-1) | 0 |
| Jim Donnan | 1996-2000 | 67.79% (40-19) | 0 |
| Butts-Donnan | 49 years | 63.46% | 7 |
Now, let’s take a look at some numbers on Mark Richt:
| Coach | Years | Win % | SEC Championships |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Richt | 2001-Present | 73.28% (96-35) | 2 (2002, 2005) |
Some additional numbers on Coach Richt:
| Conf. Win % | Non-Conf. Win % | Home Win % | Away Win % | Win % Against Top 25 (time of game) | Win % in Close Games (4 pts. or less) | Win % Against Rivals | Win % in Bowl Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.85% | 85.71% | 80.95% | 77.27% | 53.85% | 62.07% | 56.67% | 70.00% |
And one final set to consider:
| # of AP All-Americans | # of NFL Draft Picks | Top 5 Among Active Coaches for # of NFL Draft Picks in Following Positions |
|---|---|---|
| 15 (5th among active coaches since 2001) | 58 (1st among active coaches since 2001) | QB, RB, WR, TE, DE, DT, LB, DB, PK |
After examining the numbers above, it is almost laughable that Mark Richt could possibly be on the hot seat, right? Only the delusional amongst Dawg Nation could possibly want a coach with the above numbers fired, right? Well, as the great fictional sleuth Sherlock Holmes once said, “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.” We have looked at part of the data. Now, let’s dig a little deeper:
| Years | CBTN Stars | Avg. Scoring Off. | Avg. Scoring Def. | Win % | Conf. Win % | Non-Conf. Win % | Top 25 Win % (TOG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001-2004 |  Rating: 72.02 |
28.80 ppg | 16.26 ppg | 80.77 | 73.53% | 94.44% | 60.00% |
| 2005-2007 | Rating: 70.43 |
29.10 ppg | 18.05 ppg | 76.92% | 66.67% | 92.22% | 70.59% |
| 2008-2010 |  Rating: 56.56 |
30.82 pgg | 24.18 ppg | 61.54% | 54.17% | 73.33% | 28.57% |
Also keep in mind that his SEC championships were in 2002 and 2005. Additionally, let’s see if Mark Richt is overachieving or underachieving with his talent level (CBTN Coach Rank is for active and inactive coaches during the given time period):
| Coach | Years | Avg. Recruiting Class | CBTN Coach Ranking | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Richt | 2002-2004 | 8.67 | 5 (out of 144 coaches) | 3.67 |
| Mark Richt | 2005-2007 | 8.33 | 11 (out of 148 coaches) | -2.67 |
| Mark Richt | 2008-2010 | 10.00 | 33 (out of 156 coaches) | -23.00 |
So, what we have here is a case of a great coach who doesn’t look so great anymore. What really sticks out from the above numbers is the +/- 20 percent drop in overall winning percentage, conference winning percentage and non-conference winning percentage. Additionally, over the last three years, Richt’s winning percentage against top 25 teams has dropped more than 40 percent from the previous three years. Given the caliber of athletes that Georgia has been landing in their perennial top 10 recruiting classes, Richt has clearly transitioned from meeting expectations. Before we make any conclusions, we want to end with three data sets that we think may explain Richt’s declining numbers:
| Coach | Def. Coord. | Years | # of Times Opp. Scored 30+ Points | # of Times Opp. Scored 14 or Less | Avg. Scoring Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Richt | Brian VanGorder | 2001-2004 | 1 | 21 | 16.26 ppg |
| Mark Richt | Willie Martinez/Todd Grantham | 2007-Present | 19 | 16 | 23.17 ppg |
Additionally:
| Coach | DC | Years | # of NFL Draft Picks at LB | # of NFL Draft Picks at DE | # of NFL Draft Picks at DT | # of NFL Draft Picks at DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Richt | Brian VanGorder | 01-04 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| Mark Richt | Willie Martinez/Todd Grantham | 07-10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
For more on the “VanGorder Effect”, click here. And finally (data below does not include Richt’s numbers):
| Conference | Years | Avg. CBTN Head Coach Star Rating | # of Natl. Championships |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 2001-2005 | 2.87 | 1 |
| SEC East | 2001-2005 | 2.57 | 0 |
| SEC | 2005-2010 | 3.71 | 5 |
| SEC East | 2005-2010 | 3.70 | 2 |
It is pretty amazing that from 2007 to 2011 (including Boise St.), Georgia has given up 30+ points 19 different times. This compares to the one solitary time the Bulldogs did from 2001 to 2004 under Brian VanGorder. It is also interesting to note that Georgia has had only one NFL draft pick in the defensive backfield over the last four years. This compares to six from 2001-2004.
Since 2001, SEC teams, as a whole, are 76-328 (18.81%) when giving up 30+ points. Specifically, Georgia is 8-15 (34.78%) when giving up 30+ points. Looking at all FBS teams since 2001, the winning percentage is 17% when giving up 30+ points. What can we conclude from this? If you want to win a lot of games, don’t give up 30+ points.
We also can’t ignore the fact that the SEC in general and the SEC East specifically has gotten a lot better over the last five years. This has certainly contributed to some of Mark Richt’s woes. There are a lot of rumblings from the Georgia fan base and pundits about getting rid of offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. Since Bobo took the reigns of the Georgia offense in 2007, the Dawgs have averaged 29.22 points per game. This compares to an average scoring offense of 28.80 from 2001 to 2004, a period when Georgia won 80 percent of its games. If offense is Georgia’s problem, it is only because the defense is a bigger problem.
After a thorough review of the numbers, maybe the Dawg Nation isn’t quite delusional as originally thought. Maybe the data is pointing to a coach who is simply trending in the wrong direction.
The late and great investing guru Phillip Fisher used to say that there are only three reasons to sell a stock: wrong facts, changing facts or scarcity of cash. Well, with Mark Richt, the statistical facts have changed, and if he doesn’t right the ship and do it sooner rather than later, it just might be time for the Dawg Nation to hunker down, sell their stock and buy something new.
Whatever the UGA athletic department and athletic director Greg McGarity decide to do, we simply ask that they keep the following in mind regarding their football program: Georgia has won 5 national championships (one outright title) since 1869. To put it another way, Georgia has won or shared in the national championship 3.52 percent of the time (0.70% if you are counting outright titles). Given this fact, we ask the Dawg Nation to temper the expectations just a bit.
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