There are lots of opinions out there on college football, but not all are created equal. If there’s one you should take more seriously than the rest, it’s the collective wisdom of the oddsmakers.
Todd Fuhrman, race and sports analyst with Caesars Entertainment Corp. in Las Vegas, weighs in with the answers to “Five Burning Questions” on what’s going down out in the desert with just a few weeks before the start of the season.
1. I think there are a lot of misconceptions out there about the function of point spreads and odds on games. Clear something up for us: Generally, is the house’s goal to get even action on both sides of a game, or is it trying to set the line as close as possible to what it thinks the score will be? Or both?
In the ideal bookmaking scenario, we’d love to capture infinite amounts of money on both sides and pocket the juice as our cost of doing business and call that the profit. In reality, this scenario rarely happens and there are games where the house inevitably needs certain sides to come out on top (typically where you hear about fading the public). Our goal in setting numbers is to use power rankings and project how we think the event will play out to entice the casual gambler and wiseguy alike to bet into the numbers. It’s important to realize that every dollar in the marketplace isn’t created equally and we value certain bettors opinions a lot more than others.
2. From the action you’ve witnessed so far on college games of the year and win totals, are there any teams that are drawing notable interest from the sharps one way or another? Does anything stand out about these teams?
We came out higher on Ohio State than the rest of the industry with our win total at 9 (under -140) and immediately took under action until we moved down to 8.5. There seems to be a consensus that Arizona will struggle with a revamped offensive line despite an NFL-caliber QB in Nick Foles and that USF will be hard pressed to get to 8 wins this season despite a returning QB in B.J. Daniels and their second year under Skip Holtz’s leadership. It’s always important to remember that wiseguys will look to play middles, so reading too much into how they bet win totals can often be misleading
3. Honestly, were there any win totals that came out that caught you off guard? BYU seemed to be one that people in the know thought was odd.
BYU is one of those teams that can go either way this year. Their schedule poses some major obstacles, but they finished last year very strong and essentially bring back their entire offense. The Cougars have seven difficult games on paper and five that should be lay-ups, so 8.5 with juice to the over appeared to be the common price. I was surprised to see some books open Boise at 10 (-110), considering at worst they will lose two games, but I believe they have a great chance to go 11-1 or even run the table if they beat Georgia Week One.
4. Can you give us a coach or a program out there sharp gamblers seem to really like that continually flies under the public’s radar?
Randy Edsall is a coach who does more with less every year and makes gamblers money as a result. Since 2005, Edsall’s Huskies teams were 11-2 against the spread as home dogs, and it will be interesting to see if the trend continues as he transitions to the ACC. The brand of football he employed while at Uconn was never sexy for the public, but wiseguys were well aware of their penchant for covering as home dogs with a focus on good defense and a ground-oriented attack. Definitely something to keep in mind since his Terps open the season on Labor Day as 4.5-point home dogs to the Miami Hurricanes.
5. Give us the worst bad beat on a college game you’ve ever seen.
One of the worst beats I’ve ever seen occurred in the 2005 Orange Bowl with Florida State versus Penn State. The game was the poster child of offensive ineptitude for four quarters and under bettors figured to be sitting pretty. However, in a cruel twist of fate, the game needed three overtimes before Penn St. prevailed and anyone holding an under 41 ticket learned what a moose stomping on your chest feels like.
Last year, the game that stuck out was Michigan State versus Northwestern. Sparty came into the game primed for a flat spot and essentially went through the motions for three and a half quarters. Wildcat backers looked to be in good shape, since their side never trailed until two minutes left, when MSU took their first lead, 28-27. Northwestern promptly went three and out and gave MSU great field position. This was when Edwin Baker broke through shoddy tackling and scored a meaningless TD as far as the outcome was concerned, but that wasn’t the case to gamblers holding Northwestern +6 tickets.
Be sure to follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter, @CrystalBallRun.
Be sure to follow Todd Fuhrman on Twitter @ToddFuhrman.
