Over the last two and a half weeks, Crystal Ball Run has been sure to give you the best insight, on college football’s biggest and best storylines, with a segment we’ve called ‘Five Burning Questions.’ In each, we’ve asked an expert writer to share their thoughts, on a specifc area of expertise.
However, one thing that Five Burning Questions has lacked, is a decided West Coast feel… at least until today. Joining us to talk about the super-power Larry Scott is building along the Pacific Ocean, is one of the blogosphere’s leading experts on the Pac-12, Kyle Kensing. You can find Kyle’s work all over the ‘net, including at OnsideKick.com, as well as his own personal website, SaturdayBlitz.com.
But today, Kyle stops by Crystal Ball Run, as he answers Five Burning Questions on the new Pac-12.
1. I’ve called Larry Scott an evil genius on more than occassion, and quite frankly, I’m not joking. I fully expect him to take over the world within a 10 year period. With that said, what are local thoughts on him. Does anyone have a bad thing to say?
I love “evil genius.” He certainly seems evil if you’re not a Pac program supporter, otherwise he’s a savior. I liken Larry Scott to Mark Cuban. Cuban has a certain flash and aggressiveness that may turn off outsiders, but he goes the extra mile for his team. As a Cubs fan I wished for Cuban to come on as owner, and as a Pac football backer I laud what Scott is doing.
As far as criticism, what bad can be said? The Pac-12 was always a willing doormat in the national media, but Larry Scott immediately made it his goal to change that perception. The 16-team league has been viewed as his lone failing, and even that is a questionable “failing.” Adding the programs rumored would have meant adding Texas, which the Big 12 is finding out can be hazardous. Scott managed to broker the most lucrative deal in college football, and he did so without alienating any of his membership institutions. Washington State is on equally footing as USC in terms of revenue, and that will improve the league as a whole. He went the NFL route as opposed to Major League Baseball.
Scott’s use of the Pac’s location is a stroke of genius, too. Incorporating its proximity to Silicon Valley in increasing Web presence was brilliant and innovative. And what makes all this so impressive is he did so without having to kiss Bristol’s ring. ESPN is involved, and it’s good to have that presence on the Worldwide Leader. But he did so without making the Pac-12 ESPN’s property. A presence all over FOX separates the Pac in a way few leagues have been able to the last 20 years. And snatching up Gus Johnson? Add an iconic voice to what you are striving to make an iconic presence is another commendable decision.
2. Oregon is the runaway favorite in the Pac-12, and quite likely, the only National Championship contender as well. But this season they come in with more questions than the last. Off the field issues aside (which are a whole other set of questions), will depletion along the lines hurt them, or is it the right system in a place where they can just “move the next guy in.”
Oregon’s isn’t a plug-and-play system that will work with a number of players. A Hawaii can transition from Timmy Chang to Colt Brennan to Bryant Moniz seamlessly, but largely due to the system. UO was successful last year with the players who adapted to a blazing and especially at the line. It takes a tremendous lineman to be big and strong enough to hold off the blitzes yet keep pace with what Chip Kelly is demanding and last season you saw it culminate via experienced units.
UO’s biggest concern has to be its defense. The offense got all the attention, and leading the nation in PPG rightfully so. But it takes a special defense to maintain that pace, force opponents off the field and be able to play on short breaks at a high level. The UO defense did that but sustained numerous key losses. If this year’s Ducks aren’t the juggernauts last year’s were, the defense is the reason.
3. Stanford seems to be a quite polarizing team. I’m of the belief that that so much of “who they were,” was wrapped up in Jim Harbaugh, and that the Cardinal will take a major step back without him. I know they have Andrew Luck, but anywhere close to the success of last year seems impossible to me. Am I crazy? Is this a team that’s going to win 10 games again this year?
Short answer to is Stanford going to win 10 games, I believe is yes. The two best teams on the Cardinal’s slate both must come to Stanford (Oregon and Notre Dame). That is a tough place to play due to its almost eerier feel. The fans are light years from the actual field and the lighting has a haunted house feel. SU does take a few tough road trips to USC, Arizona and Oregon State. Stanford will always have the single best player on the field in Andrew Luck, and Stepfan Taylor is an underrated talent. The question is how much David Shaw can replicate Jim Harbaugh. Shaw will run the same schemes, but Harbaugh’s fiery personality was evident in the Cardinal.
This season’s team won’t be as good as last. Adjusting to a new head coach is a challenge — it’s a rare a coach can win immediately a la Chip Kelly, even if he was on the previous coach’s staff and in Shaw’s case is a first-time head man. The Cardinal also are young up front. Is this year’s team as good as last’s? Probably not. Is it capable of winning the Pac-12? Absolutely.
4. Arizona State is the “buzz,” team in this conference, and returns 30-something seniors to a team built to “win now.” Are you buying or selling the Sun Devils as the Pac-12 South favorites?
“Sleeping giant” is a term I have used repeatedly to describe Arizona State. All the pieces to become a Pac power are there: good facilities, nice campus, a fan base that truly craves a top tier program. But if ASU is sleeping, Dennis Erickson is Ambien. I just can’t see an Erickson-coached team breaking out. His one good season there was immediately after taking over for Dirk Koetter, who had steadily built up to that point. Erickson hasn’t had the success Koetter had prior.
Now, recruiting has gone well there. This team is loaded with talent and shouldn’t just compete in the South. ASU has the players to win the whole conference and has proven it can play with anyone. Bear in mind, the Devils had Oregon dead-to-rights until the fourth quarter last season and were a special teams play away from beating Wisconsin in Camp Randall. What concerns me is quarterback play has steadily regressed, beginning with Rudy Carpenter who seemingly got worse every season under Erickson, and the running game has floundered near the bottom of the Pac-12.
5. Give us one team and only player to keep an eye out for, that will come out of nowhere and surprise.
Utah and Arizona are the two programs whose potential-to-projection ratios this offseason have felt the most out-of-wack. The Arizona offense should be dynamite with Nick Foles returning and surrounded by a deep receiving corps, and Mike Stoops has recruited well on the offensive line throughout his time at UA. Utah seems to fly completely under the radar, and did sustain some key losses. But I like Jordan Wynn, and love Kyle Whittingham.
That said, Mike Riley-coached teams almost always overachieve. Last season’s dip was an aberration. Replacing Jacquizz Rodgers is no easy task, but the same thing was said when Yvenson Bernard departed. Furthermore, Mike Riley-coached teams have a knack for exceeding expectations. This team reminds me a lot of the 2008 version, which ended up playing for the conference championship in the final week. That may be a stretch this year as the league is much deeper all around, but eight or nine wins aren’t out of the question: they draw Stanford, Arizona, Washington and BYU all at home and get UCLA instead of USC from the South.
Be sure to follow Kyle on Twitter @Kensing45
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