With the LSU Tigers facing another big weekend test against West Virginia this Saturday, we decided to welcome Kris Brauner of the excellent LSU website SaturdayNightSlant.com for another round of Five Burning Questions.
This week Kris discusses the change in opinion on Les Miles, college football’s deepest defense, and when LSU fans can start thinking about a chance to play for the Crystal Ball.
(Also, be sure to follow Kris for all sorts of LSU analysis on Twitter @SNSlant)
1. There are so many angles I could take with these questions, but let me start with this: Above all, I feel like the Oregon win (and obviously the subsequent victory over Mississippi State) has changed the “Les Miles narrative.” For once people are forgetting about all the grass-eating, fake-field-goal-calling non-sense, and focusing on the fact that Les is just a really good coach. Do you sense the same? If so, are you happy that those headlines have changed? As someone who deals Les on a day-to-day basis, is it fair?
I do sense the same, and I do think it’s fair. Les has always been goofy. That’s part of his persona. But he has also always been a good football coach. For better or worse, a lot of that was hidden under his big hat due to quirky interviews and some legendary clock management blunders. But at the end of the day, the proof of his coaching ability lies in his resume. LSU has won 11 or more games in four of Miles’ six seasons in Baton Rouge, including one crystal ball. He’s a great big game coach. He recruits very well. His players love him and play hard for him.
Does he have some faults? Sure. He’s not the best at managing late game situations and has had some epic failures in that regard. He also tends to get a little too conservative with a lead. But what big-time coach doesn’t have their faults? Bob Stoops couldn’t win a BCS game for a long time. Urban Meyer tried to force John Brantley into a spread option offense. And Nick Saban blew a 24 point lead to Auburn at home. The point is that even the best coaches have some faults. Les is no exception. But he is certainly one of the best coaches in the nation, and I’m glad some are starting to take notice, even if they’re a little late in doing so. Those who continue to underestimate him can do so at their own peril.
2. Prior to the Oregon game, I remember you telling me that some LSU fans quietly thought that Jordan Jefferson’s suspension would be the best thing that happened to this team. Was it? Have you been surprised at just how good Jarrett Lee has been? If Jefferson came back, would he even see the field?
I’m not sure whether Jefferson’s suspension has ultimately been a good thing for this team or not. After all, he was the starting quarterback for a reason. That whole incident was a hell of a distraction in the two weeks leading up to the season opener, but it was one that served as a rallying cry for the team. Many assumed that LSU would lose to Oregon with their backup quarterback, and the players took that criticism to heart.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a bit surprised at how well Lee has played. He’s completing 68% of his passes and is taking care of the football. You can’t ask for any more than that as a LSU fan right now. In just three short games, you can notice the growth in the comfort level that new offensive coordinator Greg Studrawa has in Lee. Against Oregon, the game plan was designed to protect Lee at all costs and to not ask him to do too much. But by the third game, the staff let Lee throw the ball 27 times in a hostile environment. LSU will always try to run the ball first. But with how Lee is playing right now, it looks like LSU’s offense will be balanced and that Lee may be a bit more than just a game manager.
For a recent blog post, I took a look back at any games from 2010 where Lee played significant minutes. He has been performing better than people give him credit for. Combining those numbers with 2011, you get:
74 of 107 (69.16%)
828 yards (7.73 yards per attempt)
5 TDs
2 INTs
If Jefferson returns to the team, there is no way he is the starter. For one, he has not been practicing since the season started. So it will take him some time to get re-acclimated to things. But LSU has a good thing going right now, and I don’t see any way they would mess with it. At most, I think Jefferson could find a niche role as a short yardage or goal line quarterback because he does bring something extra to the running game that Lee does not. It would take his return combined with a Lee meltdown or injury before he even has a chance of starting another game at LSU in his career.
3. The defense….woah the defense. My God are they good. Is it possible that overall, player 1-11, they are better than last year?
1 thru 11? I don’t think this defense is better than last year’s. The 2010 defense had an All-American candidate at each level of the defense in DT Drake Nevis, LB Kelvin Sheppard, and CB Patrick Peterson and I’m not sure LSU has the individuals to replace those guys.
But 1 thru 22? Without question! 1 thru 33? Even more so. And that’s the beauty of this LSU defense. They can legitimately go eight-deep on the defensive line and seven-deep in the secondary. And that’s not just guys that have some experience and that the staff is comfortable with playing. Those are all guys that make lots of plays. Very little is lost between the first and second groups. And when the fourth quarter rolls around, everyone on the field is fresh.
The combination of very quick defensive ends and an outstanding secondary makes LSU deadly against the pass. The concern heading into the season was whether LSU could force the opposition into enough passing downs. Could they stop the run? The interior of the defensive line has been a pleasant surprise this season. Shutting down high powered rushing attacks such as Oregon and Mississippi State has given everyone confidence that this is a complete defense with no real weakness.
4. What concerns you the most about the West Virginia game the most? Is it the high-powered passing attack? Another tough road venue? The fact that Dana Holgorsen has taken on this aura of an “evil genius?” Anything else?
Yes. All of those things. I think that West Virginia’s offense matches up pretty well with LSU’s defense. Yes, I just said that LSU is deadly against the pass and all West Virginia wants to do is pass. But they utilize a very quick passing game where the quarterback often gets rid of the ball quickly. This will neutralize LSU’s pass rush from the defensive line to an extent. With a quick passing game, the defense has to be tempted to bring the safeties up to jump some routes and eat up any space underneath. But West Virginia also has some very good receivers. And even with LSU’s talented corners, I doubt LSU wants to play man coverage too often against the likes of Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. LSU’s defensive backs will have to get off blocks and tackle well in space. They have done both very well this year, but they’ll really need to come up big on Saturday night.
On the bright side, LSU held West Virginia to just 177 total yards a year ago in a 20-14 Tigers win. Yes, Dana Holgorsen makes an enormous difference. But the Mountaineers have essentially the same personnel, minus Noel Devine.
I may be most concerned with the other match up of LSU’s offense against West Virginia’s defense. Mountaineers’ defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel is one of the more underrated assistant coaches in the nation. He always has a solid group and his unit ranked 3rd nationally in total defense a year ago. Thus far, they are allowing just 316 yards per game. LSU needs to control the field position battle to win, and they’ll need to drive the football against what will be the best defense they have faced thus far this year. And they’ll have to do it in a tough environment.
The atmosphere is going to be intense and will certainly be something to contend with. ESPN Gameday will be there and Morgantown is going to be juiced.
This won’t be an easy one for the Tigers.
5. How “cautiously optimistic,” are LSU fans right now about the “big-picture,” of where the season can go? After all, the talent is there to beat anyone. But looking at the schedule, my goodness is there still a lot of tough football left to be played. At what point can we start talking about a trip to New Orleans? After the Alabama game?
“Cautiously optimistic” is a great way to put it. And you’re right about the schedule — LSU has a long, long way to go before anyone starts making reservations in New Orleans. If LSU can get out of Morgantown with a victory, then they get somewhat of a break by hosting Kentucky. That would set up a huge showdown in Tiger Stadium on October 8th with the Gators, who looked awfully strong on Saturday. If LSU gets through that one, then we’ll start talking, in hushed tones, about New Orleans — even though they’ll still have to travel to Knoxville, host Auburn and travel to Tuscaloosa before hosting Arkansas. And that’s before the SEC Championship Game. SIGH.
Many, including myself, question this year’s schedule a bit. LSU had their huge out of conference game against Oregon. They won and they’ll benefit a great deal from it. Beyond that, I’m not sure LSU needs to prove anything else to anyone. Everyone knows they play in the SEC. It sure would be nice to be at home this weekend against another rent-a-win opponent prior to the SEC schedule heating up. While I’m personally looking forward to making the trip to Morgantown, this schedule sure seems like overkill for the team.
Regardless of the tough schedule, this team has shown that it has a legit chance to make a serious run at the Crystal Ball.
For more of Kris’ excellent analysis on all things LSU football, follow him on Twitter @SNSlant and read SaturdayNightSlant.com.
