Here at Crystal Ball Run, we don’t just like to talk about what’s going in the college football world now, but what will likely happen in the future as well. Call it “looking into the Crystal Ball,” if you will.
Well with that said, few things intrigue us more than how certain players we’re watching now transition to the next level. Which is why for today’s Five Burning Questions segment, we called on Eric Galko of OptimumScouting.com to talk some NFL Draft.
If Optimum Scouting isn’t your one-stop shop for all NFL Draft news, it better be starting now. They cover the big schools just as well as the small, and the guys you need to know just as well as the established stars.
Either way, join us as Eric drops some great knowledge bombs, on draft prospects, teams and some funny stories from his time in the business.
1. One of the biggest points of the NFL’s new CBA is the rookie wage scale. Simply put, first year contracts (especially for first round draft picks), simply won’t carry the same cash value they once did. Do you suspect this will impact college football in any way? Will fringe late round picks elect to stay an extra year to try and move into the first round? Will guys be more likely to leave after three years to speed up the process to their second contract?
The draft process for NFL teams will be changed by this new rookie wage scale, that is for sure. There won’t be drastic changes and at first it won’t be overly noticeable. But the biggest alteration thanks to the rookie wage scale will be how teams value players in terms of draft slots.
NFL teams felt Dez Bryant and Jimmy Smith were top 10 talents for sure, but thanks to character concerns, the money they would be guaranteed would far outweigh the risk of these players being suspended or too toxic to have on the roster. The same goes for injury-prone players like Da’Quan Bowers and Rob Gronkowski. Also, players at less glamorous positions could get more love at the top of the draft. A top ten or fifteen pick on a center, guard, or inside linebacker is very rare because of the amount of money being tossed around now at the top of the draft.
Finally, I think this rookie wage scale could actually reduce the number of busts in the NFL draft. With less elite level money given out to the top picks now, they are paid more like capable starters than the future of the NFL, thus adding the incentive to continue to work hard after reaching the NFL, instead of just playing college football for the first round payday (a la JaMarcus Russell).
2. It is almost assured at this point that Andrew Luck will be the No. 1 pick in the next NFL Draft. Short of a serious injury, or him getting busted for some unspeakable crime (although really, isn’t that beard a crime in itself?), what would it take for him to NOT be the No. 1 pick?
In short, A LOT. Think of it this way: Sam Bradford was viewed as the top quarterback in the 2009 draft, yet stayed for another year. Just weeks into his redshirt junior year, Bradford went down with a somewhat serious injury. Despite that, Bradford was atop the board of the Rams through much of the draft process.
As for Luck, he has a better arm, is more fundamentally ready, can make throws from many different positions (something rare for college players), has an NFL body now, has won in college, and by all accounts is a perfect “franchise quarterback”.
That being said, I could see one of three scenario’s playing out that he isn’t the number one overall pick: 1. The Panthers, Bengals, Jaguars, Titans, or Vikings are at the top of the draft and DON’T want to trade the pick, 2. Luck goes down with either an injury (likely to the knee or shoulder) that will not be able to have full mobility for the near future, or 3. Matt Barkley wows the way he’s very capable of doing. Barkley is closer to Luck than many are giving him credit for. He’s a different type of quarterback, but there is a LOT to like about the USC Trojan. Also, some scouts really like where Landry Jones is heading, but I’m not sold yet.
3. Beyond Luck who are the 2-3 guys that you believe are right behind him in contention for the top pick? What separates them from the competition?
It’s really tough to say now, though I think there are four guys that are surefire Top 10 picks, all of which could make it very tough for a team to pass on them in the top five if they have a good season. Cordy Glenn of Georgia (played guard and tackle in college, very fundamentally sound for a guy as big as he is), Alshon Jeffery of South Carolina (has AJ Green/Calvin Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald type dominant potential), Matt Barkley of USC (as I said before, he’s much closer to Andrew Luck than people realize), and Quinton Coples (absolute beast, worth a high pick especially since teams value pass rushers)
Those four guys have all shown that they are nearly unblockable/unstoppable at their positions, and are unique. Keep in mind that uniqueness as a prospect is what makes team’s excited and willing to pick very high. Vince Young, Reggie Bush, JaMarcus Russell, Vernon Gholston, Cam Newton, Ndamukong Suh, Patrick Peterson, all were unique and hard to give a comparison to, which is why teams select them high in the draft.
4. Give us a handful of names that no one is talking about, who could be in for big- and maybe surprising seasons? They could be players at major programs stepping into starting roles for the first time, small school guys, whomever.
From the small school ranks, there are between 50-75 prospects right now that are draftable based on our database. A few guys you should get to know: Brian Quick (WR from Appalachian State), Norman White (WR from Villanova), Chris Summers (WR from Liberty), Tyler Holmes (LB from UMass), and Aaron Corp (QB from Richmond), as all five are locks to be drafted as of now. Also, the CAA conference at the FCS level, North Alabama and California (PA) at the Division II level, and Alex Tanney (QB from Monmouth) and the American Southwest Conference in Division III.
From the FBS level, here’s a few names to get to know: TY Hilton, WR from Florida International, Adrian Robinson, DE from Temple, Danny Trevathan, OLB from Kentucky, Bruce Irvin, DE from West Virginia, Ladarius Green, TE from Louisiana-Lafayette, and Jarrett Boykin, WR from Virginia Tech. All could be solid 2nd round picks, with maybe one or two being 1st rounders with fantastic 2011 seasons.
5. Give us a good scouting story. It can be a guy you totally whiffed on, someone who went from unheard of to first round pick, or anything in between!
While I don’t like to dwell on the past, I have missed on my fair share of prospects, as do many. While I loved Dan LeFevour (former QB for Central Michigan) and Everette Brown (former DE for Florida State) as prospects, neither has done well in the NFL thus far. Still, I’m not ready to say I totally missed the boat YET, but it’s likely coming. I think my worst miss ever was Paul Smith, former quarterback from Tulsa. He came from a productive offense, had decent size at 6’1, and was a smart, high character kid. I touted him as my “sleeper of the draft”, and gave him a 4th round grade. Smith wasn’t drafted in the 2008 draft, barely made the practice squad of the Jaguars, was cut the following year for Todd Boeckman, and then was out of football until just 5 months ago when he signed a contract with the CFL’s Montreal Alouettes.
I remember going to the Senior Bowl this past year. I live in Pennsylvania, so catching plane after plane to get down to Mobile, Alabama was no easy task. On my last flight to catch, from Austin, TX to Mobile, I needed to sprint to my gate. Just as I got there, the plane left the station. I was quite ticked off as you’d imagine, especially since I thought of the possibility I’d be sitting next to an NFL GM on the way down there. I get on the next flight, frustrated. As I board the plane, I look around at the four seats behind me and the three to the left. My fellow passengers within talking distance were Justin Griffith, former Pro Bowl NFL Fullback, Patrick Peterson, Patrick Peterson’s father, three NFL scouts, and an NFL Network reporter. Safe to say I got my NFL Lockout, coaching philosophy, Oakland Raiders stories, and Patrick Peterson scouting report fill all in about an hour and a half. If anyone wants to talk about JaMarcus Russell, I got a few good stories now.
This year, when I was in New York City for the NFL Draft, I got a chance to talk with most of the players that were there, hoping to have their name called. I spoke with Aldon Smith, former defensive end for the Missouri Tigers, shortly before the beginning of the first round. When I asked him about playing for Wade Phillips in Houston, he froze up. I knew it. That’s where he’d be heading if all went to plan. I tweeted it, excited that I possibly had beaten Adam Schefter to the punch. At pick No. 7, the 49ers called his name. He looked shocked by the pick, totally caught off guard, at least in person he was. He walked past my table and then behind me to Jay Glazer’s booth. We shared a “wow” look together. Shows how unexpected the draft could be, even for the guys in it just hours before it’s aired on TV.
Be sure to follow Eric on Twitter @OptimumScouting
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