In less than a year circulating the Interwebs, Beyond The Bets has quickly become one of the best sports gambling sites around. The blog delivers handicapping analysis with wit and flair that is rare for the genre.
Crystal Ball Run finally convinced Beyond The Bets to answer “Five Burning Questions,” and the results didn’t disappoint.
1. So far this season, from a handicapping perspective, have you identified any teams you consider materially underrated?
Two teams immediately come to mind, and ironically, they play each other this weekend. Georgia Tech and Kansas.
Georgia Tech is a team that the majority of pundits projected to finish either fourth or fifth in the ACC Coastal division, ahead of only Duke and Virginia. Given the turmoil surrounding Miami and North Carolina, I actually picked the Yellow Jackets to finish second in the division behind on Virginia Tech. So there’s that. But from a handicapping perspective, I don’t think Paul Johnson has been given the benefit of the doubt, which is too bad, because he’s earned it. Historically, Johnson is one of the best against-the-spread coaches in the country. He came into the year at 62-43-1 ATS in his first nine years, and he’s already 2-0 ATS this year. As an underdog, he has always been one of the best, posting a 26-11-1 ATS record.
So, why is Georgia Tech undervalued? Well, in large part because they went 6-7 last year, lost their starting quarterback and were slapped by the NCAA in the offseason, which created a bit of a distraction. Also, there’s no question that public perception of Georgia Tech has taken a hit, and some are speculating that Johnson’s Triple Option attack has been solved and that he needs to abort his style of play.
But if you look at Georgia Tech’s 2010 season a little closer, you’d see that they very easily could have gone 8-5 or even 9-4. They lost five games by eight points or less and fumbled 37 times. Fumbles are inevitable in Johnson’s offense, but last year was an aberration and unlikely to happen again. I rode Georgia Tech the first two weeks and will continue to ride them until further notice, though I might have to take a break this week, since I like Kansas to cover the 14.5-point spread.
If I tried to explain why I’m high on Kansas this year, we’d be here all night. But let me say this: Don’t ever question Turner Gill. The guy can flat out coach, and the Jayhawks will compete for a bowl berth and avoid the Big 12 basement, which is where just about everybody predicted them to finish coming into the season.
2. Flip side: Who’s overrated?
Ohio State. Terribly overrated. Many people whose opinions I respect have told me the Buckeyes will be a great value bet in 2011, since they think the Buckeyes are actually undervalued. But I’m not buying it. This team is on auto-fade until further notice. No coach meant more to a program than Jim Tressel, and if the Buckeyes are able to trudge along to a 10-win season without him, I’ll have to reevaluate everything I have come to believe about college football and sports betting in general. I was sad to see him go. He has won me a lot of money through the years.
As for Luke Fickell, his replacement, I have zero confidence in his abilities. He comes off as indecisive and unsure and that’s the exact opposite of what Tressel was, particularly on game day. You might not have liked how Tressel coached, and you might have hated his conservatism. But man, he had one heck of a 10-year run.
Ohio State will play in a lot of coin-flip games this year, and I’m looking forward to taking the opposite side in all of them, beginning this week with Miami.
3. All eyes in college football will turn to Tallahassee this weekend, as the Oklahoma Sooners and Florida State Seminoles square off. A couple weeks back you told me you thought OU would win handily. Still feeling that way?
Yeah, I think so. I’ll never trust Landry Jones — ever — but I’m satisfied with how he has progressed and I think it’s finally his time to shine and put together an incredible season. Last year, I wasn’t as high on Oklahoma as most. I thought the media crowned the Sooners a year too early, so I wasn’t the least bit surprised that they dropped a few winnable games, particularly the road game at Texas A&M.
As for my “win handily” comment, let me back off that a little bit. That might have been the Skip Bayless in me speaking. The Seminoles are coming off revenge and Bob Stoops’ brother, Mark Stoops, will have a few tricks up his sleeve. I’ll call for a fairly low-scoring game, but the Sooners will cover. Let’s say 27-21.
4. If you could pick out one stat that you think college football gamblers should pay more attention to when breaking down a game, what would it be?
It’s not a stat, so don’t get mad at me. But goodness, I wish sports bettors would pay more attention to who is coaching. To me, coaching is everything. It really is. The players come and go, but the coaches stay the same — at least the good ones. If you’re looking for situational betting opportunities, there’s no better place to start than finding out who is on the sideline.
I put together a list of coaches every year that I’ll bet in situational spots. Most of the coaches have earned a permanent spot on my list and will never leave, guys like Bill Snyder, Kyle Whittingham, Kirk Ferentz, Paul Johnson and Chris Petersen, who has legitimately won be about 10 straight bets.
But I’m always scouting some of the up-and-comers, guys at the smaller schools that I think will outperform expectations and move on to bigger and better things. Dave Doeren, the first-year Northern Illinois coach, is a guy that I’m very impressed with. I think he’ll be at a big-time program within three years at the most. Hugh Freeze, the Arkansas State coach, is also extremely good.
5. What was the biggest lesson you took away from “Fade the Idiot?”
I don’t know if I learned a lesson, per say, but the Fade The Idiot experiment definitely revealed a few interesting things. First and foremost, it revealed that sports bettors are gullible. They’ll believe anything and everything and won’t ask questions. That’s why many people fall for scams and pay for picks from sports handicappers that have losing records. I’ve always said this: “It’s not about picks, it’s about packaging.” The overwhelming majority of handicappers — or touts, if you prefer — are not professional gamblers. They are not even winning gamblers. But yet, they package themselves and market themselves in a way that enables them to reel in the suckers — those bettors who are desperate to win but are unable to achieve their desired results by themselves.
When I started BeyondTheBets earlier this year, the two questions I received most often were the following: “Which handicapper do you recommend?” and “Where can I buy your picks?” The answer to the first question was always, “None.” The answer to the second question was laughter. I don’t sell picks and never will. The goal for my site is to provide recreational bettors with information — free information — that will help them arrive at their own picks. Sports betting is a hobby, no different than golf, chess or poker. It takes practice, an investment of time, persistence and a lot of hard work. But it can, and should be, fun. If it’s not fun, then there’s no point in doing it.
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