Aaron Torres broke down the Arkansas Razorbacks this morning. Now, it’s time for Kevin McGuire of No2MinuteWarning.com to try and tame the Boise State Broncos, No. 7 in the Crystal Ball Run Preseason Top 10.
Crystal Ball Run Preseason Top 10
No. 7 – Boise State Broncos
Boise State in a Word: Debatable
No team has caused as much of a stir in the BCS debate over the last few years the way Boise State has (quiet down, TCU fan). A pair of BCS bowl wins to their name and the Broncos think they belong with the big boys of college football. You may agree or disagree with that idea, which makes Boise State a team everyone has an opinion on.
Why Boise State Will Live Up to Billing:
Boise State’s offense is good as advertised, even with the departures of two top wide receivers. The Broncos will be tough to slow down on most weeks, including the season opener against Georgia. The Mountain West will present more of a challenge on a regular basis than the WAC did, but the toughest game, TCU, will be played at home on the blue turf.
The defense is also underappreciated, probably because of the weak competition in the WAC. And the Broncos also have one of the top coaches in the country in Chris Petersen.
Why Boise State Will Disappoint:
Nevada.
If there was one thing we did learn last season, it was that even Boise State can be taken down in conference play. The Broncos stubbed a kicking toe in a loss against the Wolf Pack last season, taking the Broncos out of the BCS picture late in the season. This season they move to what is considered a better conference with the Mountain West Conference.
Sure, Boise State gets to play TCU at home, but the Horned Frogs are pretty darn good, too. Breezing through the Mountain West will be tougher to do than in the WAC.
Key Game: Georgia (Sept. 3)
Look no further than the opening game of the season. Boise State opens the 2011 campaign with what amounts to a road game. Last season the Broncos took care of Virginia Tech in the nation’s capital, but getting by Georgia in Atlanta could be a different story.
What makes this a pivotal game is no secret. If Boise State wants to be considered a legitimate contender for a BCS championship game berth, then a win against one of the favorites in the SEC East is a prerequisite. Lose, and the Broncos are ruled out of the discussion for the remainder of the season, even though there would still be 11 games to be played.
Boise State is 6-1 against BCS conference schools in the last five seasons. The Broncos have opened the previous two seasons with wins against Virginia Tech and Oregon. Can they add Georgia to the list?
On the Spot: Kellen Moore, QB
To say that quarterback Kellen Moore is the key player for Boise State is almost too easy. The Davey O’Brien Award and Maxwell Award finalist is one of the most polished quarterbacks in the country, and the game plan allows him to put up some huge numbers.
But this season Moore will be without wide receivers Titus Young and Austin Pettis, who combined to lead Boise State in receiving with 2,206 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns on 142 receptions. No other player on Boise State’s roster had more than 32 catches last season, so there will be some guys who need to fill in to ensure Moore is successful.
Final Verdict:
Could this be the year that a non-AQ reaches the BCS championship game? The odds are probably against it but Boise State has some things going in its favor. A talented offense, a tough game against an SEC opponent, getting Nevada, TCU and Air Force at home. And don’t undervalue the defense. Allowing under 13 points a game is not a total fluke, even in the WAC.
Best Case Scenario: 12-1, loss in BCS championship game
Worst Case Scenario: 10-3, Poinsettia Bowl
Follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter @CrystalBallRun.
Follow Kevin on Twitter @KevinOnCFB.
