Every week, Derek J. Rocco of ThePensBlog.com stops by to give his college football gambling picks.
So let’s recap the picks last week before moving on to the Week 3 bets:
Wins:
Michigan
Alabama
Auburn
Loss:
Minnesota
Last Week: 3-1
Season Record: 6-4
What we learned:
In my first column, I said that rule #7 was to always bet against New Mexico State. Well…
11. NEVER TAKE MINNESOTA.
Minnesota laid a huge egg at home. Rarely does a 21 point favorite lose outright. Any mean jokes I could have said about Minnesota’s head coach were null and voided when he had a seizure on the sidelines during the fourth quarter. Hope he gets better. Minnesota can never be taken again.
12. Don’t bet against heavily favored road SEC teams out of conference.
How embarrassing was it for Penn State last Saturday? 100,000+ people in Happy Valley and Penn State was in the game for like 8 minutes. Bama easily covered the 10.5. Penn State is 1-3 ATS against SEC teams in the last three years. I thought I had some big stat brewing. I went back over the last three years, looked at SEC road favorites of at least -10. Turns out, they are only 5-3. Either way, Penn State is mud.
7. Always bet against New Mexico St. Arkon
Rewind to Rule 7. New Mexico St. rose up. So, we need a new team.
And man does Akron fit the bill. Check out their stats. They have 359 yards of total offense in two games. Denard Robinson himself has 576 yards of total offense. Oh, the poor Zips. First they get throttled by Ohio State, then they get stomped by Temple 41-3.
Moving on to this week’s picks…
Week three in college football is a tough week to gauge. Some of the teams that played cupcakes in the first two weeks now have to go on the road, so the spreads are hard to read.
Pitt +3 @ Iowa
Take Pitt +3. Can’t believe I am actually writing this. I had started to list reasons why Iowa is going to win, and I just had to stop. Iowa is a bit of a mess, and Pitt isn’t much better, but the difference is Ray Grahman. If the nation’s leading rusher can take some heat off Tino Sunseri, maybe Sunseri can finally step up to the occasion. Could be a really close game; I’ll put my money on Todd Grahman and see what happens. Pitt wins 24-21.
WVU @ Maryland OVER 58
Maryland is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorites. WVU is 4-0 in their last four games as underdogs. So what gives? The defense. This is going to be a shootout. Could even be an OT classic. Could see a 42-41 type of game. No clue who is going to win though. Stay far away from that.
Auburn +3 @ Clemson
There is no really good reason to take Auburn in this game, but you have to respect the defending National Champs. So, I’ll take the 3. The last two games have been decided in the last 30 seconds. So, what does that say? They know how win. Ride or die with Gene Chizik.
Michigan State +5 @ Notre Dame
I’m taking way too many road dogs this week, and probably setting myself up for a disaster, but consider two things:
1. Notre Dame is 0-2.
2. Notre Dame is 0-2.
The pressure in South Bend on Saturday is going to be incredible. Brian Kelly could be the first coach to actually be fired at halftime if the Irish get off to a rocky start. This is a traditionally close game. Have to take the points and Sparty.
Good luck all.
