Every week, Derek J. Rocco of ThePensBlog.com stops by to give his college football gambling picks.
Here are his selections heading into Week 2.
So lets recap the picks last week:
Wins:
Mississippi State
Michigan
Boise State
Loses:
Notre Dame
Tulsa/Oklahoma “over:
Oregon
What we learned:
I had my first seven rules of gambling last week, so we’ll just add on to that.
8. Notre Dame is no longer lucky: Of all the games I had money on, this was the one I knew was over in the first 10 minutes. Notre Dame went straight down the field, then fumbled on their own goal line. Then they proceeded to turn the ball over two more times while in the red zone. Nothing worse than when everything is just going wrong. Brian Kelly almost combusted on the sideline on five different occasions.
My dad once told me Notre Dame is a great bet because “The luck of the Irish always finds a way.” Well guess what? God has given up on Notre Dame. Given Up!
9. The Trung Candidate rule: In 1999, Arizona came into the season ranked No. 4 in the country. Led by Trung Candidate, everyone thought they were going to be great. So, what happened? They lost the opening game of the season to No. 3 Penn State and never recovered. Sound familiar?
A good Pac-16 team with a hyped running back gets beat travelling cross country. It will be tough for Oregon to deal with this. Once a team like Oregon loses confidence, it is all over. And believe me, Oregon has lost confidence after that game.
10. Don’t bet against Kellen Moore: Just nasty. Can’t bet against Boise St. They made a statement in the Georgia Dome. Ride them.
So let’s move on and see what we got this week:
No. 3 Alabama (-9 ½) at No. 23 Penn State:
Take Alabama (-9 ½): While it will be a great atomsphere in Beaver Stadium, Penn State isn’t going to beat Alabama. Too many studs on defense; Penn State doesn’t have a QB. Low scoring, but the Tide rolls 27-10
Notre Dame (-3) at Michigan: Uh… as soon as you see this, drop what you are doing, take as much money as you can and put it on Michigan. Notre Dame is starting Tommy Rees. Western Michigan’s QB is better than him and Michigan’s D was in his head. Notre Dame couldn’t handle South Florida’s athletes, they won’t be able to handle Michigan’s.
Minnesota (-21) vs. New Mexico State
Minnesota hung in with USC last week. New Mexico St. is a high school team. Easy pick.
Auburn (+6) vs. No. 16 Mississppi State:
Nothing is better than Vegas being a little too reactionary. Sure, Auburn almost got beat by Utah St., but are we really giving them six at home? This will be a huge statement for Miss State if they can win, but I’m betting they don’t. Take Auburn and the points.
That’s it. Good luck and feel free to share picks in the comments sections.
Follow Derek on Twitter @TPBDerek
