Last Monday, Crystal Ball Run premiered a new column, where we evaluated the point spreads of the major Week 3 college football games. Understand that it wasn’t a gambling column, so much as a way to look at these games and break them down from a different angle than we otherwise might have.
Well, with three weeks in the books, it is now time to look at the Week 4 spreads. Included is a surprisingly big point spread from the SEC.
No. 11 Florida State at No. 21 Clemson: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN
Point spread: Florida State -3
What It Means: For all intents and purposes, we might as well just call this one the “Letdown Bowl.” Both teams had the biggest games of their season a week ago, and one has to wonder which, if either will be inspired to play this game.
For Florida State, they were physically and emotionally beat up in Saturday evening’s 23-13 loss to the No. 1 team in the country, and if anything, it’s hard to see them coming back refocused and reenergized this weekend. And that’s without knowing the status of quarterback E.J. Manuel or wide receiver Kenny Shaw, both of whom left the game because of injury. If either one (especially Manuel) were to miss this game, it could completely alter the Seminoles game-plan.
But really, if anything, this point spread tells us that Vegas has no confidence in Clemson to pick up where they left off last weekend. This is a team that is notorious for having letdowns after big wins, and as impressive as last Saturday was against Auburn, it’s easy to forget that they nearly lost to Wofford the week before. This team is as hot and cold as any in college football, and it’s impossible to know entirely who will show up.
If anything, the inclination is to favor Florida State here.
No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Point Spread: Alabama -11
What It Means: Simply put, this is the most out of whack line in college football this weekend. How can Arkansas- a team which is 3-0, ranked in the Top 15- be close to a two touchdown underdog? I’m not quite sure. Does Vegas know something we don’t?
Maybe so. After all, the more you evaluate the Razorbacks, the more the question has to be asked: What do we actually know about this team?? Understand that against Alabama, Arkansas will be without Knile Davis (obviously), and this will also be Tyler Wilson’s first start as quarterback on the road. Not to mention that Arkansas does enter this game banged up; wide receivers Greg Childs and Jarius Wright didn’t play Saturday, in addition to All-SEC defensive lineman Jake Bequette. There has been no word yet on if those guys will be healthy.
On second thought, maybe this line isn’t so crazy after all.
No. 7 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas A&M: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ABC
Point Spread: Texas A&M -3
What It Means: In layman’s terms, when a road team is a field goal favorite, that usually means Vegas considers both teams to be even. One team might be a little better, but the home-field advantage is seen in most circles as an equalizer.
Well, looking at these two teams, it seems like for all intents and purposes, these two practically are mirror images of each other. Oklahoma State is once again one of college football’s most prolific offensive teams, as they’re currently ranked No. 1 in the country in passing (408 yards per game), and No. 3 in the country, averaging a not-so-shabby 52 points per game. As for A&M, well their opposition hasn’t been quite as tough as Oklahoma State’s, but at the end of the day, they’re getting things done on both ends of the field. Their offense is as prolific as ever, averaging 41.5 points per game, while their defense is giving up just 10.5. The latter puts them at ninth in the country.
So who’ll have the edge Saturday? It’s hard to say.
One more point: Don’t forget about that goofy Oklahoma State-Tulsa game from Saturday night/Sunday morning. Because of a lightning delay, it didn’t kick-off until after midnight local time, and concluded at…are you ready for this…3:30 a.m.
How that will affect the Pokes this weekend, is anyone’s guess.
No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
Point Spread: LSU -6
What It Means: And finally, we get to the biggest game of the week, as the LSU Tigers again hit the road, again for a big-time, nationally televised game. Can they go three for three against ranked foes when they play West Virginia?
Honestly, the answer is probably yes. Still, be very wary when backing the Bayou Bengals. This game is sandwiched in between a tough road game against Mississippi State, and next weekend’s matchup with Kentucky, which really will signify the start of SEC play. And LSU has already played their “out of conference Super Bowl,” against Oregon. Could the Tigers be in for a letdown in Morgantown?
Also, remember one more thing. For all the success LSU has had against the powerful running attacks of Oregon and Mississippi State, playing Dana Holgorsen’s pass-happy crew from West Virginia is a totally different animal all together. The Mountaineers come into this one ranked seventh in the country in passing at 356 yards per game, and other than Arkansas, LSU doesn’t often see a team comparable to this all season.
Is it enough for an upset? It’s hard to say.
But this one will very likely be closer than expected.
