Point spreads.
To some, “point spreads” is a dirty little term that elicits all kinds of negative thoughts. Thoughts of smoky casinos and overcrowded sports books, not to mention down on their luck losers, handing over the last dime of their daughter’s college fund, all because daddy couldn’t lay off Ron Zook and the points at home. When will daddy learn?
But to me, it’s not quite so simple. I’ve always been a firm believer that whether you’re a gambler or not, there is information to be gleaned from looking over college football point spreads. Seeing how Vegas believes the game will play out, is just one more tool to use in evaluating how you personally can expect the games to end up on Saturday. And really, the more tools you have, the better. Right?
Let me give you an example. Last year, when Alabama went to play at South Carolina, they were favored by one touchdown. Looking at that number heading into the week, something just didn’t seem totally right. Alabama was the No. 1 team in the country, riding a 19 game win streak, and had just crushed Florida 31-6 the week before. And South Carolina? They were a respectable 3-1, but had melted down in a loss at Auburn the week before, and had a history of laying eggs in huge games. Plus, they had Stephen Garcia playing at quarterback, a red flag if ever there was one. There just didn’t seem to be any conceivable way Alabama would lose that game, or really, that it’d even be close.
Of course we all know what happened from there, as South Carolina played the game of their lives, jumping out to a 21-9 halftime lead, and holding on for the 35-21 victory. The betting line that just didn’t seem to make sense a week before, all of a sudden did. Somehow Vegas knew that Alabama would get tripped up. And they did.
So with that, we’re starting a new featuring here at Crystal Ball Run. Every Monday, I’ll go ahead and evaluate the gambling lines for the five biggest games of the following weekend.
Now understand, this is not a gambling column. Not one bit. Instead, it’s us here at CBR looking at the point spreads, and trying to figure out how it’ll correlate to what happens on the field Saturday.
Either way, let’s take a look at this weekend’s biggest games:
No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ESPN
Point Spread: LSU -3.5
What It Means: See, a point spread like this is exactly what makes evaluating the betting lines so fun.
Simply put, looking at this spread, it seems like something is off, right? I mean after all, LSU did crush Oregon two weeks ago, and Mississippi State did get beat down at Auburn last Saturday. LSU has to be more than 3.5 points better than State, right?
Well, be wary. For all the struggles that Mississippi State had last weekend, we’ve got to remember that they were on the road, and played better than one might think. The Bulldogs had 150 more yards of total offense than Auburn, 10 more first downs, and had an interception returned by Auburn’s Demetruce McNeal for a touchdown. Had that not happened, the final outcome might have been a bit different. And if the outcome had been different, maybe you’d feel differently about this game right now.
LSU on the other hand had a nice win over Oregon, but it was also on a neutral field, that really wasn’t neutral at all. Most of Jerry’s World was clad in gold and purple two Saturday’s ago, making it a decidedly partisan crowd. It’ll be a lot different when the Bayou Bengals hit the road this Thursday, especially for quarterback Jarrett Lee. This will be his first real start on the road in three years. Will he be ready? More importantly, will LSU be ready?
This game seems like it’ll be closer than you think.
No. 21 Auburn at Clemson: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ABC
Point Spread: Clemson -3.5
What It Means: Again, we’ve got just another absolutely fascinating line.
Here’s why. Say you and your buddy were having a beer tonight, were talking football, and he asked you what you thought of this particular game. Your quick, gut reaction would be “Oh yeh, Auburn will win,” before you turned to more pressing matters, like oogling your waitress.
Seriously, why wouldn’t you take Auburn to win? After all, they did just beat Mississippi State, and are the defending National Champions. As for Clemson…well, Clemson almost lost to Wofford last weekend at home. Egads. Really, the only question entering this game should be whether you want to help Dabo Swinney update his resume, or if I should do it.
But then, just when you think you’ve got this one pegged as a win for Auburn, you see that point spread, pause and say, “Wait, am I missing something?”
Who’s to say for sure. But remember, for all the success that Auburn had last weekend, they showed their true age just a week before in a near loss to Utah State. Plus their big win against Mississippi State was at home, and most of the Tigers big wins were at home last year too. How is this really young team, with a first year quarterback going to handle life on the road?
All of a sudden, are you starting to think that Clemson might pull this upset? I am too, and it’s because of that funky point spread.
Tennessee at No. 18 Florida: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Point Spread: Florida -8
What It Means: A quick evaluation of this line means that Vegas values two things: Defense over offense, and being at home versus on the road.
To the first point, Tennessee comes into this game as one of the top scoring teams in the country. Through two games they’ve put up over 43 points per game, and Tyler Bray has been especially exceptional. He has seven touchdowns thrown, and a grand total of zero interceptions. Not too shabby.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to mean a heck of a lot to Vegas, which still has Florida as more than a touchdown favorite, thanks in large part to their defense. In victories over Florida Atlantic and UAB, Florida has allowed a grand total of, umm, three points. Speaking of “not too shabby,” welcome to the Swamp, Coach Boom!
Really though, what this point spread means more than anything, is that Vegas really values Florida’s home-field advantage at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Both these teams are talented yes, but also young and prone to mistakes. So with that, it only seems likely that if either of these teams were to make a costly mistake (or three), it’d be on the one entering the hostile road environment, right?
Michigan State at Notre Dame: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. NBC
Point Spread: Notre Dame -5
What It Means: Notre Dame favored by five? After last week’s meltdown? And all those turnovers? And Brian Kelly turning a shade of red that even Crayola hasn’t created yet? It can’t be!
This point spread can really only mean one thing, and that’s that Vegas believes that this is the weekend that Notre Dame stops making really dumb mistakes. When they do, the Irish will finally win, and Brian Kelly’s blood-pressure will come back down to a normal level.
Now the question is, will that happen? It’s hard to say. But at the same time, no team, no matter how bad they are, can continually turn the ball over at the rate that the Irish are right now. And when the Irish haven’t turned over the ball, they’ve actually been pretty good. Yes they’re 0-2, but they’ve also tallied over 500 yards of offense in each loss. Eventually, all those yards have to turn into points, right?
On the opposite end, what do we really know about Michigan State right now? Sure they’re 2-0, but what do wins over Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic really tell us?
Much like the Auburn-Clemson point spread though, something sure does seem fishy here.
No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 6 Florida State: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
Point Spread: Oklahoma -3.5
What It Means: Well, to put it simply, this point spread means that Vegas has respect for Oklahoma. For the Sooners to be favored, on the road, in a night game against a fellow top five team, it means that they have earned their stripes as the No. 1 team in the country. After all, if Auburn and Michigan State are both ranked, and underdogs on the road against unranked teams, what does it say about Oklahoma, that they are favored by more than a field goal, playing against a significantly better team?
It means that the Sooners have earned the No. 1 spot, and it won’t be easily wrestled away.
Follow Aaron Torres on Twitter @Aaron_Torres.
