College Football 2011: The Best and Worst Schedules

Les-Miles2Simply put, there is no better variable to indicate future success or failure for a college football team than their schedule. You can have all the talent in the world, the best coaching staff money can buy, and an All-American quarterback, and yet, all it takes is some crotchety old guy in your conference office to ruin a season with one fell swoop of his pen. Play all, or even some of your biggest games on the road, and the chances of your club making a run at the crystal ball go from slim, to next to none.

Contemporary history backs this up.

In 2009, Alabama entered the season as a consensus top five team, but also one with plenty of question marks, none more so than at quarterback. But thanks to a schedule that included home games against Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina and LSU, the Crimson Tide gained momentum, found their sea legs, and ended up as BCS National Champions in January. Now obviously the schedule wasn’t the only factor in Alabama winning a title; especially since they had to beat Virginia Tech, Florida and Texas all on neutral fields. But it certainly did help.

Last year, it was the same at Auburn. The Tigers rode a favorable home schedule that included games against Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia, to an 11-0 start, before gaining the confidence needed to beat Alabama at home to clinch the SEC West title. Two games later, the Tigers were National Champions.

So with the 2011 season a mere few weeks away, who are the teams which have the most to gain from a favorable schedule? And who are the ones that won’t be nearly as lucky?

Let’s take a look.  

The Good:

Georgia: Ask many college football historians, and they’ll tell you that the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs run to the National Championship was stopped before it even began, thanks to the schedule makers. The Bulldogs were ranked No. 1 in both polls in the preseason, but played five games against ranked teams, and eight against teams which would eventually become bowl eligible in the regular season. Georgia ended the 2008 campaign at 9-3, well below expectations.

Well this year, the Bulldogs seem to have caught a break the other way, with a schedule that is about as easy as they come by SEC standards. Georgia gets its toughest conference opponents (South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn) at home, with the Florida at the Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, and their only truly tough road game at Tennessee. Their other conference games away from Sanford Stadium are at Vanderbilt and at Ole Miss, the two teams projected to be the worst in this conference.

Beyond that, let’s look again closely at that schedule. Notice who isn’t there? Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, the three toughest teams in the West, all of which are ranked in the Top 15 of the USA Today Coaches Poll. It just doesn’t get much luckier than that.

Looking at this schedule, Georgia’s season will be made or broken with a Week 1 tilt against Boise, and a Week 2 game against South Carolina in Athens. Get through those two, and the possibilities for the Bulldogs are endless.

Virginia Tech: Entering the 2011 season, there are more questions than usual in Blacksburg. That tends to happen when you lose a four-year starter at quarterback, two All-ACC caliber running backs, and your best offensive lineman for the first few games because of injury.

But looking at the Hokies schedule, will any of it even matter? Probably not, since there might not be a single conference team which was able to better escape the wrath of the ACC schedule makers than the Hokies. Virginia Tech almost assuredly won’t face a ranked team on the road all season, with conference trips to Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech and Virginia, four teams that are as weak as any in the ACC. Quite frankly you could make the case that Wake, Duke and Virginia are amongst the worst teams in any BCS conference.

And even out of conference, the schedule is doable. After playing a marquee game against a ranked team in three of the last four years (at LSU in 2007, and Alabama and Boise on neutral fields in 2009 and 2010), Virginia Tech won’t face anyone of that caliber in 2011. Out of conference, the Hokies play Appalachian State, at East Carolina, home against Arkansas State and at Marshall. While that slate might be tougher than looks, it’s nothing if not manageable.

South Florida: If I may be so blunt: On paper, just about every team in the Big East seems to have a fairly easy schedule. That’s what tends to happen when you have zero ranked teams entering the season, last year’s conference champion is breaking in almost an entirely new offense, and each of last year’s top three teams is bringing in a new coach. Only in the Big East, huh?

But with West Virginia as a clear-cut favorite in the conference, it seems as though South Florida is in the best position to battle them for a conference title. For starters, they’ve got seven home games (always an advantage), including the last three of the season. None could be more important than a potential defacto Big East title game when the Bulls host the Mountaineers on December 1 at Raymond James Stadium.

As for those road games, again, look closely. South Florida is a team that has- and likely always will-struggle coming North, to play late season games in cold weather. Well this year, they get the benefit of playing UConn (a place they’ve lost the last two times they’ve played there) and Pitt (lost 41-14 two years ago) both early in the schedule, before weather should really be a factor in either game. They also get a late November game in the climate controlled Carrier Dome, meaning that the only realistic cold weather game they may play all season is at Rutgers, a team which just might well be the worst in the Big East.

Now, let’s get to…

The Bad:

LSU: Love him or hate him, the Mad Hatter has another team that can compete for a National Championship. And if recent history tells us anything, it’s that the Bayou Bengals just might. Remember, the last two times the BCS National Championship Game was played at the Superdome in New Orleans (this year’s site), LSU has taken home the title. Weird, but true fact.

But to do it again, they’ll have to go through what is by all measurements, the toughest schedule in college football. 

Looking across the board, maybe the first thing that jumps out are two November games at Alabama and against Arkansas as home. Each team will likely be ranked in the Top 15, and both games could impact the SEC West race. October isn’t any easier, with a visit to Tennessee sandwiched in between home games with Florida and Auburn.

Of course with all that said, it’s easy to forget that LSU has the toughest September in college football. They open up with fast-paced, point-a-minute Oregon in Dallas, a team which just so happens to be ranked No. 5 in the preseason polls. Then the Tigers go to Mississippi State, a game made that much tougher since it’s on a Thursday night in a short week. And then, if that weren’t bad enough, they’ve got to go to West Virginia two Saturday’s after that, and play a vastly improved club, in one of the toughest road venues in college football. Remember, West Virginia has had one of the top defenses in college football for years now. Now they’ll have an offense to match it thanks to new head coach Dana Holgorsen.

Forget October and November. It’ll be a challenge for LSU to just get out of September alive.

Nebraska: Considered to be the favorites by many in their respective Big Ten Division (here at Crystal Ball Run, we refuse to refer to those divisions by the “L” words the Big Ten office does), Nebraska got no easy breaks from the Big Ten schedule makers.

Of the Cornhuskers eight conference games, seven of them are against teams which went to bowl games last year. Nebraska opens up in Camp Randall against Wisconsin, gets Ohio State in Lincoln a week later, and has virtually no breaks following that. Nebraska also missed out on any potential gimme wins, when the Big Ten kept perennial doormats Purdue and Indiana off the schedule.

Welcome to the Big Ten, rook.

Oklahoma State: Moving to Nebraska’s old stomping grounds, many consider Oklahoma State to be the clear-cut No. 2 in the Big XII, behind cross-state rival Oklahoma. But to quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!!”

(Oh my God, did I just do that? I’m so, so sorry).

A very advantageous schedule for the Pokes last year gets flipped on its head in 2011, with road games at Texas A&M, Texas and Missouri (in back-to-back weeks) as well as a trip out to Texas Tech later in the season. Even a home game with Oklahoma is hardly a reprieve. The Sooners have won four straight in Stillwater, with Oklahoma State’s last victory coming into 2002, when they were coached by some goof ball named Les Miles.

Don’t be surprised to see Oklahoma State take a big step back this season.

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About Aaron Torres

Aaron Torres works for Fox Sports, and was previously a best-selling author of the book 'The Unlikeliest Champion.' He currently uses Aaron Torres Sports to occasionally weigh-in on the biggest stories from around sports. He has previously done work for such outlets as Sports Illustrated, SB Nation and Slam Magazine.

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