In a season which few elite teams have emerged and upsets have become the norm, the one place where sanity remains supreme is in the SEC West. For the first time ever in the BCS standings, the top three teams- LSU, Alabama and Arkansas- all reside in the same conference. The fact that they’re also in the same division proves beyond a reasonable doubt that SEC West is just about the only place this season were “big boy” college football is being played.
With that, we’ve asked each of our writers here at Crystal Ball Run to take a stab, and share their picks for today’s game.
Here are our writer’s takes on the Game of the Century… Part II:
No. 3 Arkansas at No. 1 LSU, Friday 2:30 p.m. CBS
Tom Perry’s Take: How much fun would it be to see Arkansas pull off the upset and throw off the BCS? Oh, wait. It appears LSU is pretty much a lock for the BCS Championship game as long as it goes 1-1 over the next two games.
Seriously, I can’t remember the last time I’ve watched a team with the talent and focus of LSU. The Tigers have answered every challenge this season, and will likely do the same again Friday against the Razorbacks.
Arkansas has won three of the last four meetings between these two, so the Razorbacks won’t be intimidated by LSU.
The Pick: LSU 24, Arkansas 10
Allen Kenney’s Take: So, let’s see. LSU has taken on a bevy of talented challengers this season, and the Tigers have answered the bell every single time. Why should we believe that Friday’s game with Arkansas will be any different?
At first glance, Arkansas seemingly has the firepower to upset No. 1. The Razorbacks enter this game as one of the hottest teams in the country. Looking under the hood tells a different story, though. The Hogs have savaged a bunch of mediocre, beaten-down opponents during their win streak. The last time they played a team of LSU’s caliber, the Hogs got roasted by Alabama.
Bring your barbeque sauce, Tiger fans.
The Pick: LSU 37, Arkansas 20
Regie Eller’s Take: On one side there are LSU fans. On the other side there is Arkansas fans, as well as those opposing an Alabama-LSU rematch. Sorry to burst the bubble of those who oppose the two best teams in the country playing (LSU and Alabama), but I will.
Arkansas – a team that has plenty of offensive weapons – is extremely talented. But where Arkansas is most talented, at wide receiver, LSU can match them step for step.
If you then flip it around, you must ask yourself, can Arkansas – who allowed 462 yards to Vanderbilt, 370 yards to Mississippi, 457 yards to Troy and 628 yards to Texas A&M – stop LSU? They may for a while, but I do not feel the Hogs have the sustainability to hold the running tandem LSU will bring, down for long.
The Pick: LSU 42 Arkansas 20
Michael Felder’s Take: Arkansas has been the team that’s worried me on the Bayou Bengals schedule all year. I knew Alabama was going to be a physical test and that game basically came down to who would out muscle who. For the Arkansas game it is more about a legitimate, bad match up for Les Miles’ team. Arkansas strength isn’t just their ability to throw the ball but in how they move it down the field with the pass. They run a lot of combination and levels routes that tax defenses and force teams to stay extremely disciplined. Something that- for all of LSU’s strengths on defense- the Bayou Bengals still struggle with. They take chances and they gamble a lot.
The second layer to this issue is about who Arkansas is throwing the ball to during the course of a game. Yes, we know Tyrann Mathieu and Morris Claiborne are capable of covering down most teams receivers but the issue with Arkansas is how well they utilize their third and fourth receivers to create mismatches and exploit them. Jarius Wright out of the slot, Chris Gragg from the tight end position and Cobi Hamilton from the slot are going to test Eric Reid, Tharold Simon, Brandon Taylor and Ron Brooks of LSU. How those safeties and back up corners play is going to be the true determinant of who wins this ball game.
In the end it seems LSU’s safety play will be more reliable this season than it was a year ago and that will be the difference. Expect Les Miles to try and get this offense going early to really put the pressure on the Hogs and look for a lot more zone coverage and stick to their guns as opposed to gambling and jumping the immediate routes.
The Pick: LSU 34, Arkansas 26
Kevin McGuire’s Take: It’s the Game of the Century.. uh, part two?
This is one of those rivalry games I have really enjoyed watching in recent years and quite honestly I think Arkansas has a great shot to stun the Tigers similar to the way they did a few years ago with Darren McFadden. Let’s keep this in mind. Arkansas has won three of the last four of these games, so they must have some sort of idea of what it takes to beat the Tigers. Yes, LSU is the better overall team, I firmly believe that. But in a rivalry game situation everything is off the table, especially with teams this good.
I’m calling for a tight game decided by a single point, which means special teams is going to be the difference in this one. If that’s the case, I give LSU the slight edge playing at home.
The Pick: LSU 21, Arkansas 20
Aaron Torres’ Take: I’m not a gambling man, but if I were, I’d tell you this: Without a doubt, the most out of whack point spread this weekend is Arkansas getting 12 points at LSU.
Is Vegas serious?
This is a team that has beaten LSU three out of the last four times they’ve played, dating all the way to the archaic Houston Nutt era of five seasons ago. In their last two games on the Bayou, the Hogs nearly ruined LSU’s run at a title in 2007, and in 2009, LSU needed overtime to put them away. For some reason, this team just has LSU figured out.
As for this season in specific, I don’t buy into the hype that Arkansas has no chance. They’ve beaten three good teams in a row (South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi State), and are way healthier than they were when they got bloodied at Alabama in early September. A healthy Jake Bequette and Tenarius Wright add a pass rush and toughness that just wasn’t there in Tuscaloosa back in Week 4.
Then there’s LSU. We know they’re fantastic, and simply put, no one has close to the depth of quality wins they do. Still, they’ve played Western Kentucky and Ole Miss since that Alabama game, teams that aren’t exactly “measuring stick” matchups coming into this one. And with the full infusion of Jordan Jefferson at quarterback, we know that LSU is more dynamic at the position than they were at the beginning of the season. But does that make them better? Tough to say.
In the end, I’m going to go with history, and go with what I’ve seen with my own two eyes the last few weeks: Arkansas is playing lights out, knock ‘em down, drag ‘em out football.
It will be enough to knock off LSU for the fourth time in four years, and send the BCS (not to mention the SEC West) into utter chaos.
The Pick: Arkansas 31, LSU 28
