College football fans don’t agree on much. You know that. I know that. And those poor, harmless trees at Toomer’s Corner know that.
Which is why it’s been so strange this off-season to see everyone universally agree on one thing: The greatness of Andrew Luck. People just can’t get enough of him. Ask most, and he’s the biggest thing to hit the sport since the forward pass. Or at the very least, Derek Dooley’s side-part.
Me? I’m not so sure. Actually, I am sure… that Luck will take a step back this year.
Now understand, I’m not saying Luck is going to be a disaster. He’ll still be one of a handful of elite signal-callers in the sport. Even his worst moment will look 10 times better than John Brantley’s best. I promise you that, Stanford fans.
At the same time, I’m very confident in saying that he won’t improve upon on, or even coming close to matching the ridiculous numbers he put up last year. You know that 70.7 percent completion percentage and 32 to eight touchdown to interception ratio? The only time you’re seeing Luck put up those numbers again is if you play with Stanford in NCAA ’12.
How can I say that? Well, understand, it’s no disrespect to Luck, at least not as much it is a concern for everyone else around him. While most seem to think Luck can be the tie that binds a team that lost a ton of key personnel and a great head coach, I’m not buying it.
Let’s start with the truth: As great as Luck was last year, Stanford was a run-first football team. The Cardinal ranked 17th in the country in rushing offense, while Luck finished just 37th in total pass attempts. That number might not seem bad on Luck’s end, and to a degree, it isn’t. At the same time, it’s still a relatively low number for a guy who started all 13 of his team’s games and suffered no major injuries. I watched as much Stanford football as I could last year, and as much as folks want to say otherwise, the Cardinal used the run to set up the pass. Not the other way around.
Well, with that said, can Stanford’s running game stay above water with a loss of a ton of key personnel? Granted, 1,000-yard rusher Stepfan Taylor returns, but three of his offensive linemen – including All-American center Chase Beeler – don’t. It won’t help that Owen Marecic, arguably the best blocking back in the country, is gone as well. Will Taylor or any of Stanford’s other backs be able to put up numbers anywhere close to that this coming season?
Then there’s the defense, which to their credit, got somewhat lost in the shuffle last year. To say that unit was good was an understatement; statistically it was one of the best in the country. Stanford finished 2010 ranked 10th in the country in scoring defense, allowing barely 17 points a game.
But again, it’s not about what they did last year, but who returns in 2011. And honestly, it’s got me a bit concerned. Gone is most of the defensive line, as well as the unit’s emotional leader, Marecic. (Yes, the guy played on both sides of the ball. Incredible.) And don’t forget that for all the talk about Jim Harbaugh leaving for the NFL, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was just as important to this team’s overall success. He’s moved on to San Francisco with the former head coach.
Speaking of which, there’s Harbaugh. The most important puzzle piece of all.
Understand that there is no one – no one – who loved and continues to love Harbaugh more than I do. If Harbaugh called me from San Francisco right now and told me to do 100 up-downs, I’d hang up the phone and do them. No questions asked.
Then again, that’s also what makes Jim Harbaugh, Jim Harbaugh. He’s the meanest, nastiest guy on the block, and he isn’t afraid to let you know. That point was only hammered home when I saw a profile of him on HBO: Real Sports recently. My favorite moment was when his brother described an incident in Little League, when Jim, the biggest kid on the field, was pitching and threw at a girl on the opposing team. Jim’s response? “She was crowding the plate.” Now that, my friends, is Jim Harbaugh in a nutshell.
And it was that nasty, angry, “What’s your deal?” attitude that gave Stanford that little extra edge it needed. It allowed the Cardinal to perform at a level than it might not have otherwise been capable of and beat teams that athletically it shouldn’t have even been on the same field with. That’s what Harbaugh brought to the table. And with all due respect to new coach David Shaw, I just don’t know if he can come close to matching that. By all accounts Shaw is a nice guy. I’m just not sure “nice” is what this team needs right now.
Which brings us back to Luck.
With a young defense, inexperienced offensive line and a new head coach, the pressure falls squarely on him. Fair or not, he’s the guy that will get blamed whether the team wins or loses. Not the defense. Not Shaw. Luck.
And I just don’t know that he’ll have enough around him to match everyone’s high expectations for the Cardinal. Most see this as a top 15 team, and some even have Stanford in the top five and winning the Pac-12 title. Remember, though, it takes more than one star to win a conference title. And while Luck is as bright a star as any, he needs help around him. I’m not sure who those guys are.
In the end, will Luck be good? Of course, he’s Andrew Luck. But will he improve on last year’s stats? Get Stanford back to the top a BCS bowl game? Win the Heisman Trophy?
It just ain’t happening.
Follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter @CrystalBallRun
Follow Aaron Torres on Twitter @Aaron_Torres
