Here are the Crystal Ball Run Week 13 Staff Picks!!
No. 2 Oklahoma State at Iowa State: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ESPN
Aaron Torres’ Take: Bad news fans of Oregon, Oklahoma, Clemson, Stanford and Alabama, if you’re looking for the Pokes to get tripped up, this isn’t the place.
Oklahoma State scores too quickly, too often and this one is over by halftime.
The Pick: Oklahoma State 48, Iowa State 21
Everybody Else’s Take:
Allen Kenney: Oklahoma State 42, Iowa State 21
Kevin McGuire: Oklahoma State 55, Iowa State 24
Michael Felder: Oklahoma State 54 Iowa State 20
Regie Eller: Oklahoma State 56, Iowa State 21
Tom Perry: Oklahoma State 56, Iowa State 14
No. 16 Nebraska at No. 17 Michigan: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ESPN
Regie Eller’s Take: From a historic perspective it does not get much better than this. Two of the top four winningest programs in college football history will be on ESPN at noon, with both vying to stay on Sparty’s rear in the race to the Big Ten title game.
The Michigan defense has gotten progressively better as the season has gone along. The Wolverines allowed just 37 rushing yards last week on the road versus Illinois, the fewest rushing yards allowed by Michigan in the Big Ten since holding Indiana to 26 rushing yards in 2006. That, is big time improvement. Another marked improvement, for the Wolverines, is on third down. Last year Michigan allowed a third-down conversion 43% of the time. This season, inside of Big Ten play, Michigan has held its opponents to 29.5% on third down. I point these improvements out because they are going to need this level of play to continue versus Nebraska to avoid dropping a game at home.
This game could swing in two different ways. It could be a low scoring affair, but with a snap of the finger a shootout could happen. Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead versus Denard Robinson and company. If I am forecasting this game though, I expect a low-scoring affair with lots of yards on the ground in a quintessential Big-10 game. Good football here at Noon.
The Pick: Michigan 17, Nebraska 14
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Michigan 24, Nebraska 16
Allen Kenney: Nebraska 17, Michigan 14
Kevin McGuire: Nebraska 23, Michigan 21
Michael Felder: Nebraska, 28 Michigan 17
Tom Perry: Michigan 21, Nebraska 17
Mississippi State at No. 6 Arkansas: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CBS
Allen Kenney’s Take: Know how you know it’s a lame weekend of college football? CBS is featuring a game like this.
Arkansas is still clinging to a sliver of hope in the national championship race. This late in the game, that means the Razorbacks are playing for style points with the pollsters.
If you’ve seen the Bulldogs play this year, you know “style” isn’t really in this team vocabulary. Look for the Bulldogs to ugly it up and try to keep the ball out of Arkansas’ hands as much as possible.
Could Arkansas get caught looking ahead to next week’s tussle with LSU? Doubtful, but the Hogs won’t run away and hide.
The Pick: Arkansas 28, Mississippi St. 20
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Arkansas 35, Mississippi State 13
Kevin McGuire: Arkansas 32, Mississippi State 24
Michael Felder: Arkansas 34, Miss State 14
Regie Eller: Arkansas 35, Mississippi State 10
Tom Perry: Arkansas 32, Mississippi State 10
No. 21 Penn State at Ohio State: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ESPN/ABC
Kevin McGuire’s Take: Hard to believe but this game had big-name coaches involved in this game last season with Jim Tressel and Joe Paterno. Not the case this season as both programs have been mired in separate scandals off the field. By now you are all familiar with the scandals that have taken place at each university, which is more than you can say about the offenses in this game. Which Ohio State team will show up this weekend? The one who surprised Wisconsin and took it to Nebraska for a half? Or the Buckeyes who struggled against Michigan State and were upset by Purdue?
On the other sideline, which Penn State team will show up in Columbus, a place that has been unkind since joining the Big Ten (one road win against Ohio State since 1993)? Will we see an offense that plays with some confidence and can hang on to the football on passes over the middle? Will we see a running game that is fearless, and fueled by a 100-yard performance by a banged up sophomore Silas Redd? Or will we see a timid offense that is prone to turning the football over, which Penn State fans have seen all too often in Columbus?
Penn State has the edge on defense and it is rare to see a solid Penn State defense like this to allow a young freshman quarterback to abuse them. But history tends to speak for itself. Look for another good defensive battle in this one, with the Buckeyes finding a way to edge the visitors.
The Pick: Ohio State 17, Penn State 13
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Ohio State 20, Penn State 13
Allen Kenney: Ohio State 24, Penn State 14
Michael Felder: Ohio State 20, Penn State 12
Regie Eller: Ohio State 17, Penn State 9
Tom Perry: Ohio State 10, Penn State 9
SMU at No. 11 Houston: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
Michael Felder’s Take: The Cougars are in the driver’s seat for the BCS bid and the only thing they have to do is win. Case Keenum, Patrick Edwards and the rest must respond as they face the opener of a tough three week stretch. SMU’s got a good win under their belt in TCU and they’ll be looking to score points in a hurry.
Problem is Houston’s been on fire and without the services of Zach Line the Mustangs won’t have an easy go of it. This is not the week the Cougs go down.
The Pick: Houston 65 SMU 27
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Houston 45, SMU 35
Allen Kenney: Houston 45, SMU 30
Kevin McGuire: Houston 59, SMU 44
Regie Eller: Houston 49, SMU 24
Tom Perry: Houston 45, SMU 17
No. 1 LSU at Ole Miss: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Tom Perry’s Take: I guess you could call this a trap game for LSU, but there is no way the Tigers are going to blow the perfect season against Houston Nutt and Ole Miss. Still, you’re getting a nice SEC rivalry game and there’s nothing Ole Miss would love more than taking down LSU during Senior Day. But it’s tough to see any way Ole Miss gets much going on offense with LSU.
The Pick: LSU 27, Ole Miss 7
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: LSU 31, Ole Miss 6
Allen Kenney: LSU 27, Ole Miss 3
Kevin McGuire: LSU 27, Ole Miss 3
Michael Felder:
Regie Eller: LSU 42, Ole Miss 3
Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Aaron Torres’ Take: For much of his time at Tennessee, Derek Dooley has gotten a free pass. It’s not his fault that Phil Fulmer left the cupboard bare, it’s not his fault Lane Kiffin’s recruits were all knuckleheads and are no longer with the program, and it’s not his fault that Tyler Bray and Justin Hunter were both lost to injury this year.
But if the Vols lose at home Vanderbilt on Saturday? Well, that’ll be Dooley’s fault.
James Franklin (the coach, not the quarterback at Missouri) has made massive strides in year one in Nashville. But there’s no excuse for the Vols not to win this one at home.
It might not be pretty, but Tennessee will do that.
The Pick: Tennessee 17, Vanderbilt 16
Everybody Else’s Take:
Allen Kenney: Vanderbilt 20, Tennessee 17
Kevin McGuire: Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 17
Michael Felder: Tennessee 17, Vanderbilt 14
Regie Eller: Vanderbilt 24, Tennessee 13
Tom Perry: Vanderbilt 24, Tennessee 20
Virginia at No. 25 Florida State: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ESPN2
Regie Eller’s Take: Two second year coaches in Mike London of Virginia and Jimbo Fisher of Florida State will lead their teams out Saturday in hopes of achieving their eighth win.
London has done a remarkable job with the Cavaliers this year but Florida State – by far – will be their most formidable defensive opponent. I do not think the running back combination of Perry Jones and Kevin Parks are going to find much room on the ground, so this game will be decided by Virginia quarterback Michael Rocco. Good luck with that though, because Florida State has held seven opposing quarterbacks under their season average on the season.
• Kolton Browning of ULM has averaged 200.4 yards passing per game. Versus FSU he threw for 85.
• Malcolm Dixon of Charleston Southern has averaged 109.5 yards per game. Versus FSU he threw for 50.
• Landry Jones of Oklahoma has averaged 386.8 yards per game this season. Versus FSU he threw for 199.
• Taylor Price of Wake Forest has averaged 249.9 yards per game this season. Versus FSU he threw for 233 yards.
• Sean Renfree of Duke has averaged 250 yards per game this season. Versus FSU he threw for 226.
• Mike Glennon of NC State has averaged 230.9 yards per game. Versus FSU he threw for 130.
• Chase Rettig of Boston College has averaged 163.3 yards per game. Versus FSU he threw for 76.
Simply put, this Florida State team is very different when E.J Manuel is healthy and provides a threat of running the ball. In FSU’s first four games, the Seminoles rushed 106 times for 318 yards good for 3 yards per carry and 79.5 yards per game. FSU only had 4 rushing touchdowns in those games. Games 5 through 10, FSU rushed it 223 times for 883 yards – good for 4 yards per carry and 147.2 yards per game and 15 TDs.
I expect this FSU-UVA game to be closer than the 18 point spread, but the Seminoles should be able to pull away in the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Florida State 24, Virginia 10
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Florida State 28, Virginia 17
Allen Kenney: Florida State 28, Virginia 14
Kevin McGuire: Florida State 28, Virginia 24
Michael Felder: Florida State 34 Virginia 20
Tom Perry: Florida State 30, Virginia 21
No. 5 Oklahoma at No. 22 Baylor: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ESPN/ABC
Allen Kenney’s Take: The Sooners still have a shot to make it to New Orleans, but this isn’t a game to be trifling with. Baylor’s explosive offense can keep the Bears in a game should this turn into a shootout. With Ryan Broyles now out for the year, OU’s offense could sputter.
Ultimately, the Sooners just have too much for the Bears to overcome.
Oklahoma 38, Baylor 27
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Oklahoma 38, Baylor 31
Kevin McGuire: Oklahoma 52, Baylor 43
Michael Felder: Oklahoma 52, Baylor 34
Regie Eller: Oklahoma 42, Baylor 35
Tom Perry: Oklahoma 48, Baylor 17
No. 13 Kansas State at No. 23 Texas: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. FX
Kevin McGuire’s Take: College football has had plenty of negative stories this season, but one feel good story that continues to unfold is what is happening with Kansas State. Bill Snyder has the Wildcats looking to make a case for an invitation to a BCS bowl game. While they will need some help from around the country they are in good position to finish in the top ten if they continue to take care of business. After a wild overtime victory against Texas A&M last week the Wildcats look to complete the Texas sweep against an improved Texas team. Kansas State has already defeated Baylor, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. While many have lauded Kansas State’s defense, what about their offense? Kansas State has scored at least 40 points in four of their previous five games (Oklahoma held them to 17 points following an upset loss to Texas Tech).
That will be the key for Texas. Texas has struggled to score points on a consistent basis. After putting up nearly 100 points against Kansas and Texas Tech the Longhorns scored just five points last week against Missouri. Last week was not the first time we have seen Mack Brown’s team struggle scoring either, having scored 17 points against BYU and Oklahoma.
Kansas State 34, Texas 28
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Texas 24, Kansas State 20
Allen Kenney: Texas 21, Kansas St. 20
Michael Felder: Kansas State 38, Texas 30
Regie Eller: Kansas State 24, Texas 14
Tom Perry: Kansas State 27, Texas 17
USC at No. 4 Oregon: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ABC
Michael Felder’s Take: Oregon is playing some of the best ball in the nation and they host one of the nation’s other most explosive squads; Southern Cal. Robert Woods and Matt Barkley are gonna try and light up this Ducks defense to keep the Trojans in the game and they are fully capable of doing so.
After blitzing Stanford with a massive offensive effort we’ll see how the Ducks work in back-to-back big weekends. Lane Kiffin’s got a chance and with the talent he has he’ll be in the game. Unfortunately with the pace Oregon plays at it will be tough for a team crippled by a lack of bodies to keep up.
Oregon 48 USC 37
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Oregon 38, USC 31
Allen Kenney: Oregon 39, USC 23
Kevin McGuire: Oregon 33, USC 28
Regie Eller: Oregon 42, USC 21
Tom Perry: USC 36, Oregon 32
California at No. 9 Stanford: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ESPN
Tom Perry’s Take: Stanford was exposed by Oregon last week, but the Cardinal have plenty to play for and this is their big rivalry game. Don’t think for a second that Andrew Luck and Stanford won’t be ready to play in this one. It’s also a chance for Luck to remind everyone why he was considered the Heisman front runner before last week’s game.
Stanford 48, Cal 14
Everybody Else’s Take:
Aaron Torres: Stanford 35, Cal 17
Allen Kenney: Stanford 38, California 13
Kevin McGuire: Stanford 45, Cal 20
Michael Felder: Stanford 64, Cal 37
Regie Eller: Stanford 38, Cal 13
