I don’t know if A.J. McCarron is a regular listener to the podcast that Allen Kenney and I do here at Crystal Ball Run every Sunday night, but if he is, well, I’m guessing he might not be the biggest fan.
That’s because whenever Allen and I tape those podcast,s at some point the conversation turns to Alabama and always turns to McCarron. Most of our conversations go a little something like this:
Allen: So what other storylines stood out to you this weekend Aaron?
Aaron: You mean other than Dana Holgorsen getting caught with a Captain and Coke on the sideline Saturday night? Besides that?
Well, I guess there was Alabama. I mean, yeh they won by 40, and sure their defense sent nine more guys to the hospital, including one Tennessee defensive back, who, umm, is no longer with us. Rest in peace buddy.
But do we really need to talk about them again?
Allen: Yeh good point. Funny story actually. The wife and I usually show the kids a scary movie on Halloween, but this year we decided instead to just pop in a little Arkansas-‘Bama tape. My poor daughter has been having nightmares since.
But going in a different direction, as much as I like ‘Bama, I’m not sold on A.J. McCarron. There’s just something I don’t trust.
At some point, somebody will take Trent Richardson out of the offense and make McCarron beat them them, and I’m just not sure he’s ready to do that. Even Greg McElroy had his ‘come to Jesus’ moment against Auburn a few years ago. Until then, he had a lot of doubters, just like McCarron does. It may have taken 12 games, but he did finally silence them.
Aaron: Ok, I get that. But while McElroy did get a lot of street cred for that Auburn win, it’s hard to deny that McCarron has been better to this point in the season than McElroy ever was.
Allen: Yeh, I guess.
Aaron: What do you mean, ‘I guess.’ Of course he was.
Admit it.
ADMIT IT!!!
Allen: Ok, ok.
So, yeh, about Holgo…
The point being, Allen isn’t a believer, and truthfully, he has every right not to be.
To people like him who have yet see “it” from McCarron, they’ve got a pretty strong argument against trusting Alabama’s sophomore quarterback. Those doubters point to the fact that McCarron has the benefit of playing with the best defense in college football, and with a running back that scientists have yet to verify as human. They also point to a weaker than usual SEC, where traditional rivals Tennessee and Florida aren’t just bad, they’re Gawd-awful. As much as McCarron has done in eight starts, he’s got a lot more to prove if the Tide are going to finish undefeated.
As for me? Well, I guess I’m somewhere in the middle on the quarterback.
Has McCarron been transcendently great as ‘Bama’s signal-caller? Obviously not. Plus, going 8-0 actually means very little if McCarron can’t finish the season with five more wins, an SEC title and a trip to a BCS National Championship Game. Alabama was built to win a title in 2011, and the single biggest variable between where they are now and achieving that goal is McCarron’s play.
I get that, believe me, I do.
But the one thing I won’t tolerate is folks comparing McCarron to McElroy at this point in the season. Because comparing the two through eight starts is like comparing Nick Saban and Houston Nutt; Mother Teresa and Lindsay Lohan; Spencer Ware’s extracurricular activities and my own. Essentially, there is no comparison.
First, there are the stats. To this point, McCarron has thrown more touchdown passes (10 to 9) and the same number of interceptions (three) in just two less attempts than McElroy, who had thrown 202 passes through the first eight games of his career (McCarron has thrown 200). Not to mention that two of McCarron’s three interceptions came in his opening game as a starter, and he went six straight games without throwing another after that.
Where the gap really starts to widen between the two however, is in their starts leading up to the bye.
I found it interesting that in Chris Low’s profile of McCarron that ran on ESPN.com Wednesday, one sentiment that his teammates seemed to all agree on, is that McCarron gets better by the game. The sophomore has been especially good in the lead-up to the bye, as he’s completed 73 percent of his passes in his last three games with nearly half of his passing yardage (745 of the 1664 yards) in that trio of victories. Those three games have also led to McCarron’s three highest passing yardage totals of the season.
Now, compare that with McElroy, who was, umm, abysmal in the lead-up to Alabama’s bye in 2009. He completed just 51 percent of his passes against Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee, with a grand total of two interceptions and zero touchdown passes. Even the game where he played his “best” (against Tennessee) was in all actuality an eye-sore. In that game, he completed 18 passes, for a grand total of…120 yards. I’m guessing that Alabama didn’t exactly “open up the playbook” in that one.
Of course with any statistical comparison, it’s important to mention the caveats, and in this case, there are plenty. By any tangible measurement, McElroy had a much tougher stretch to open his first starting campaign, with games against Virginia Tech, Ole Miss and South Carolina, which were all ranked at the time. In 2009 Tennessee was significantly more talented than they are this year, and even though Arkansas wasn’t ranked, they had the core of a team that would eventually go 10-2 and play in the Sugar Bowl a year later. Simply put, McElroy had a much tougher row to ho than McCarron, who has had the benefit of playing only two teams that most would consider legitimate Top 20 teams (Arkansas and Penn State).
But we should mention that McElroy had some inherent advantages too. Most importantly, he had the big-play receiver that McCarron lacks this year, with Julio Jones on the outside. Jones wasn’t great in 2009, but did have 43 catches for an average of over 13 yards per carry. Like McCarron, McElroy also had a very strong running game to take the pressure off him. You have heard of Mark Ingram, right?
Still, anyone who reads my work knows that I hate justifying my opinions with just statistics alone. And more than anything, I can’t help but think back to how McElroy looked in those first eight games of 2009. The guy was scared, timid and unsure of himself. It showed in the stats above, and but it showed in the way he carried himself too. If anything, it just seemed like McElroy was trying not to lose games rather than win them.
McCarron is completely different. Yes he is buoyed by the running game, the defense and the weak(er) schedule, but still. Something just feels different. He’s got a swagger that McElroy never had early in his career. He takes chances. He makes plays. Rather than trying not to lose games, he goes out and tries to win them. Whether it’s by scrambling to pick up first downs with his feet, or firing the ball deep downfield, it doesn’t seem like McCarron is afraid to make mistakes. At least to this outside observer.
Now, does that mean that McCarron is going to go out and beat LSU on Saturday? There’s obviously no guarantee. He has yet to play on this stage, against this kind of talent, with this much on the line. As much as we’ve learned through A.J. McCarron’s first eight starts, we’ll likely learn twice on Saturday alone.
And for all the ragging I’ve done on McElroy so far, it’s important to note that he was significantly better in the final few games of his junior campaign. Alabama wouldn’t have won the BCS title if McElroy didn’t go from a boy to man on that last drive against Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Yet despite all that, if I had to take either of the first two quarterbacks through their first eight games, I’d take McCarron, and it’d be a no-brainer.
Will that translate to Saturday? Only time will tell.
But if Alabama does win, it’ll likely have plenty to do with their quarterback as much as anyone.
For updates on all his columns, articles and more, follow Aaron on Twitter @Aaron_Torres.
