A crazy Saturday of college football led to a shake-up near the top of the BCS rankings.
We will once again go through the motions of making the selections as if the season ended today, using the BCS rankings as a guide. The highest ranked team in each conference will be selected as the conference champion.
Step 1: BCS Championship Game
The first thing that happens is that No’s. 1 and 2 in the BCS rankings are selected to play in the BCS Championship Game. As of now, that would be LSU and Alabama. But we’ll use some common sense for this exercise and go with LSU (No. 1) and Oklahoma State (No. 3), since LSU and Alabama play each other in two weeks.
- LSU to the BCS Championship Game.
- Oklahoma State to the BCS Championship Game.
Step 2: Conference Champions
Next, all of the conference champions are assigned to the bowls with automatic tie-ins.
- Stanford to the Rose Bowl.
- Michigan State to the Rose Bowl.
- Clemson to the Orange Bowl.
The Big-10 race got a lot more interesting with Michigan State’s upset of Wisconsin. The league now has two teams (Michigan State and Penn State) without a conference loss and five more with just one conference loss (Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Iowa). Michigan State may have to beat Wisconsin again in the conference championship game, but the Spartans first have to get by Nebraska this weekend.
Even though West Virginia is ranked higher in the BCS standings, it is Cincinnati that sits alone atop the Big East. The Bearcats would earn a bid to a BCS bowl as the Big East champion.
Step 3: Replacement Picks
The two bowl games that lost their automatic tie-ins to the BCS Championship Game get to select a “replacement pick” prior to any other selections being made. The bowl that lost the No. 1 team gets to choose first. Right now, that would be the Sugar Bowl, and selecting Alabama is an easy choice.
The Fiesta Bowl would choose next. The easy choice seems to be Oklahoma. However, it’s not all that clear cut. If the Fiesta wants a Big-12 team to replace Oklahoma State, it has Kansas State sitting there ranked one spot ahead of the Sooners in the BCS standings. But right now, I think the Fiesta would go with the bigger name with Oklahoma.
- Alabama to the Sugar Bowl.
- Oklahoma to the Fiesta Bowl.
Step 4: Final Selections
Next, the bowls select teams in a pre-determined order that rotates annually. This year, the bowls will select as follows: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. Also, by virtue of being ranked fourth in the BCS standings, Boise State is assured a spot in a BCS bowl game.
The Fiesta is up first and must choose an opponent for Oklahoma. I see the Fiesta selecting the Oregon Ducks.
Next, the Sugar Bowl executives must choose an opponent for Alabama, and their decision must be between two teams: Boise State and Big East champ Cincinnati. I believe Boise will be the Sugar’s selection to face Alabama. That will then send the Bearcats to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson.
- Boise State to the Sugar Bowl.
- Cincinnati to the Orange Bowl.
- Oregon to the Fiesta Bowl.
(If Boise finishes lower than fourth, then the Sugar would have an interesting decision to make. It could still select Boise State, of course. But it could also be looking at a one-loss team from the Big 10 instead. Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska could all be more attractive choices than Boise State.)
CBR Official BCS Bowl Game Projections
*BCS Championship Game: LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
*Rose Bowl: Michigan State Spartans vs. Stanford Cardinal
*Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Boise State Broncos
*Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
*Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oregon Ducks
Notes:
-Despite some chatter about a LSU/Alabama rematch for the BCS Championship game, it is highly improbable. If LSU lost a close game in Tuscaloosa, it may have a shot if the stars align. If the debate somehow comes down to LSU and some other one-loss teams that are conference champions, remember that LSU has head-to-head victories over both Oregon and West Virginia and could conceivably get the nod ahead of the others.
Kris Brauner of Saturday Night Slant gives the updated BCS projections every Monday on Crystal Ball Run. Follow him on Twitter @SNSlant.
