We all know who the pollsters consider to be college football’s best teams – LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc. But what about the real experts?
I’m talking, of course, about the guys out in the desert who set the point spreads on games every week.
The Linemakers Poll run by Kenny White, who’s now with DonBest.com, attempts to harness all the collective wisdom of the Vegas books and collect it in one place. The result is a weekly ranking system that reflects the best available power ranking of teams.
When breaking down the Linemakers Poll, keep in mind that these guys are less interested in who a team has beat or strength of schedule and more interested in assessing who would beat whom on a given day. The oddsmakers don’t care if Team X has two losses and Team Y is undefeated. They’re simply trying to figure out who should be favored and by how much.
The bookies’ two top-rated teams, Alabama and Oklahoma, shouldn’t surprise anyone. But let’s take a look at who’s underrated and overrated in their eyes.
Underrated
*Stanford – Vegas actually rates Stanford the third best team in the country, ahead of LSU. Bookies love a great quarterback, and the Cardinal clearly have that in Andrew Luck. More importantly, Stanford is 5-0 against the spread this season, and the Cardinal have generally covered by a healthy margin.
Next up: Saturday at Washington State (Stanford -21)
*Notre Dame – The oddsmakers are definitely buying the Fightin’ Irish, ranking ND ninth overall. The Irish aren’t even ranked in the latest AP poll. Chalk this up to a healthy respect for ND’s talent and the coaching of Brian Kelly.
Next up: Oct. 22 vs. USC
*Georgia – Yet again, the bookies are giving a nod to the talented Bulldogs squad. They have Mark Richt’s team ranked 14th, tied with Arizona State. UGa failed to make the latest AP poll, like ND.
Next up: Saturday at Vanderbilt (Georgia -10.5)
*Florida State – Sure, the Seminoles have a losing record. Vegas still rates them as the 18th best team in the country. FSU has a loaded roster from a talent perspective, and two of its three losses have come at the hands of Oklahoma and Clemson, the teams ranked second and 12th, respectively.
Next up: Saturday at Duke (Florida St. -13.5)
Overrated
*LSU – Surprisingly, the bookies don’t quite have the same level of respect for the Bayou Bengals as the rest of the country. While the AP poll has LSU at No. 1, Vegas has the Tigers fourth. It’s not a dramatic difference, but it stands out when the public consensus is that LSU is the best team in the country.
Next up: Saturday at Tennessee (LSU -17)
*Clemson – I get the feeling that the linemakers are just waiting for Clemson coach Dabo Swinney to blow it. They have the Tigers ranked 12th overall, which isn’t bad. However, Clemson checks in at No. 8 in the AP poll, suggesting the Tigers may be punching above their weight at the moment. (Don’t be surprised if Clemson struggles this week in College Park.)
Next up: Saturday at Maryland (Clemson -8)
