It is 9:45 on a crisp autumn Saturday night.
You’re sitting at a computer wondering the following:
Is San Jose State bad enough to get beat by 56? Can Hawaii put up 60? And where the hell did it all go wrong? At some point, you’ll place a frivolous bet and you might not even stay up to watch it. God bless college football.
I heard Bloguin was launching a college-football blog and I took their offices hostages until they agreed to let me write a weekly column on gambling. And I am not going to lie — In my years of gambling on college football, I’ve never hit it big or come up with some super scheme to win unlimited money. But I enjoy yelling at the TV and, even more, I love that sinking feeling I get when I know I am about to lose a game. Nothing like it.
So anyway, as the fun is about to get started, a few things I’ve learned over the years.
1. Stay the hell away from bookies:
Learned my lesson in college. My Christmas money one year went to some guy named Jim. Still really bitter about it. There are two perfectly fine sportsbook to bet online. Betus.com and Bodog.com. Big-time FYI, though: If your account is empty, load it during the week; don’t wait until Saturday morning. Usually by 10am, the online sportsbooks have already maxed on their credit-card charges. Don’t ask me how I know this; just take my word for it.
2. Find your team:
True story: Last year, Oregon basically paid my mortgage for three months. 12-1 straight-up winners, only 7-6 against the spread, but check out the Overs:
Gotta love that Portland St. game. Losses like that will appear on my upcoming “Intervention” episode that A&E probably already has planned.
3. Always bet against New Mexico St.:
Just because.
4. Find the team that is going to screw you and get it out of the way:
Last year, I had this thing for Navy. They were giving 6.5 points to a terrible (or so I thought) Maryland team. Navy either fumbled or turned the ball over on downs 3 times inside Maryland’s 10. Disgusting. Three weeks later, I forgive Navy, and take them against Wake Forest. They lose. Lesson: There will be a team that screws you this season. After it happens, put your pants back on and leave like a man.
5. Never back Dave Wannstedt in a big game:
Yeah, he isn’t around this year, but one day he’ll return. You’ve been warned.
6. Don’t back a team whose coach got kicked out of a casino in the offseason:
WVU just seems destined to fail this year. Dana Holgorsen just seems unstable. I watched an interview with him on ESPN earlier this off-season. He basically said he will not be coaching the defense at all. Yeah, that won’t backfire at some point.
7. Do your homework:
So many sites with so many different stat overlays and information. My favorite is Covers.com. It basically has all you need to know. They break down every matchup with a solid buffet of options. Just an example:
If you take your time, the information is there. And hopefully it will be here in this column, too. Hopefully we can build a community here and help each other out. Most likely this space will feature you all mocking me. But I’ve already come to terms with that.
If you have any rules you live by, feel free to leave them in the comments or shoot me an email. derekjrocco@gmail.com or hit me up on Twitter: @tpbderek.
For Thursday night:
You’ll be tempted to take Wisconsin giving -35 to UNLV…especially after I tell you UNLV was 0-7 on the road against the spread last year.
No one is even sure if Wisconsin is that good. 35 is a little steep for them.
Other games worth taking a look at:
Syracuse (-6½) vs. Wake Forest: Wake Forest was God-awful last year. Syracuse is a tough place to play. Not taking this game because I don’t trust Syracuse. It is hard to pass up, though, because Wake Forest is actually that bad.
Kentucky @ Western Kentucky Over of 51: Last season, Kentucky won a shootout 63-28. But Kentucky isn’t going to have the same offensive power they did last season. Western Kentucky…well, actually no one gives a shit about Western Kentucky, so forget that.
Game to bet:
(20) Mississippi State -29 vs. Memphis: Memphis really sucks — like really bad. Mississippi State returns most of a team that destroyed Memphis in last year’s opener, 49-7. The Bulldogs’ head coach Dan Mullen is all kinds of fired up for this game. QB Chris Relf starts the game as the most experienced QB in the SEC since Jordan Jefferson can’t stop assaulting people. The Bulldogs should roll.
Weekend:
FRIDAY
TCU -4 ½ @ Baylor:
Interesting line movement already in this game. Last year TCU torched Baylor. This year, no one is really sure what TCU can do.
The line opened as high as TCU-10, and is now down to 4 ½ hmmm… Covers.com describes what this could mean in their FAQ.
Watch this game from the sidelines. Something smells fishy.
SATURDAY
Three best plays:
Tusla at Oklahoma OVER of 64 ½: Oklahoma is going to score in this game. Probably at least 42 points. Can Tulsa keep up? I think so. Even though Todd Graham left, last years QB coach Bill Blankenship takes over. So you can almost guarantee not much has changed. Tulsa also returns G.J Kinne who went off for almost 4,200 yards and 31 TD’s last year. Could be a 49-31 like game.
Michigan (-13 ½) vs Western Michigan: With the Rich Rod era over at Michigan, Michigan might be a safer play this season. Denard Robinson is a stud, but he was mismanaged last year. Michigan has a better all around run game. I like Michigan by the spread, but I really like them straight up. Could be a good addition to a big time parlay.
Notre Dame (-10) vs. South Florida: South Florida isn’t terrible. But Notre Dame has a chance to be really good. If anything, taking Notre Dame will determine whether or not they can be trusted.
Best parlay:
Boise St. straight up over Georgia
Oregon -3 over LSU
Good luck this weekend
For updates on late-breaking news, opinion and everything else in the world of college football, follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter @CrystalBallRun.
Follow Derek on Twitter @tpbderek.
