For years, the mantra of non-AQ college football programs was simple: “Make the big boys notice us.”
Well, consider it done.
In the last few years alone, Utah (no longer a non-AQ) beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, TCU beat Wisconsin in the “Granddaddy of them All,” and Boise has beaten Virginia Tech, Oregon and Oklahoma either on the road or on neutral fields. Not to mention the Broncos also have wins over the Ducks and cross-state Oregon State at home, and a Fiesta Bowl victory over the Horned Frogs. Needless to say, it’s never been better to be a non-AQ.
And whether the big boys like it or not, they, the Sisters of the Poor, have arrived and are here to stay. Boise and TCU are widely regarded as some of the best overall programs in college football, with San Diego State, Air Force and Houston capable of beating most teams on any given day. Then there’s the re-emergence of Notre Dame into a legitimate Top 25 team, and BYU as an independent, only strengthening the non-AQ’s claim.
But still, despite all their successes in the bowl games and beyond, there is one thing the non-AQ schools are missing: A coveted BCS title, or even the chance to compete for one. Utah finished 2008 as the only undefeated team in college football but never got a chance to play for a title, and a year later, Boise and TCU were both undefeated at the end of the regular season, but were left out of the BCS title game party thanks to Texas and Alabama running the table as well. Then there was last year, when the Horned Frogs had maybe their best team ever, and were relegated to the Rose Bowl (as if “relegated” is an entirely appropriate term), while Auburn played Oregon “For all the Tostitos.”
So with that, college football’s non-AQ’s have turned into Sisyphus from Greek mythology; just as soon as they push that boulder up right up to the top of that BCS mountain, it comes crashing back down on them again. Then another season begins, and they’re forced to start from the beginning.
Is this the year that a non-AQ finally wins a BCS championship? More importantly, is this the year they finally get their shot?
All of college football will be watching to find out.
Offense:
Best Quarterback: Far and away the easiest question on the board. If this were a Jeopardy Daily Double, I’d say, “Let’s risk it all Alex!!”
And the answer of course is, “Who is Kellen Moore?”
Sure we can talk about everything the Boise State quarterback is not in this space. Off the field, poor Kellen still probably gets carded for R-rated movies and on the field it, has throwing mechanics that would make Vince Young cringe. Not to mention that when the football God’s were handing out things like “size, speed and arm-strength,” Moore apparently had disappeared to the film room, because he’s lacking there as well.
But everything that Moore isn’t underlies everything that he’s becoming, which will likely include the title of “College football’s winningest quarterback,” bythe time this season is done (just as long as he doesn’t get hurt). Not to mention his stats…ohh my, look at those stats. Last year Moore completed a staggering 71 percent of his pass for 35 touchdowns and six interceptions, numbers incredibly, that were worse than what he put up the season before. In 2009 Moore was better statistically, when he threw for an absolutely absurd 39 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
Now is where it gets interesting though. For the last two years, Moore was flanked by two of the best wide receivers in college football, Austin Pettis and Titus Young. But with both gone to the NFL now, and no one outside of Boise totally sure what their backups are capable of, we’ll quickly find out the answer to this: How much did Moore make Pettis and Young? And how much did the two wide receivers make their quarterback?
From a strictly fundamental, quarterbacking standpoint, Moore will be better this year. He’s just the kind of player who always gets better, regardless of the talent around him.
But what will it mean with Boise’s win-loss record moving into the tougher Mountain West?
That’s the question.
Running Back: From an aesthetically pleasing vantage point, Boise’s Doug Martin is probably the best non-AQ running back. Martin runs low to the ground and hard between the holes, and it showed on the stat sheet last year. He finished 2010 with over 1,200 yards on the ground.
With that said, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention TCU’s Ed Wesley. The junior burst onto the scene from the Horned Frogs opening game last year, when he put up 134 yards in a 30-21 win at Jerry’s World in Dallas against Oregon State. From there his play only improved, as he finished the season with 1,078 yards overall, as well as the title of “Aaron’s Official 2010 College Football Man-Crush.” (The award is not officially sanctioned by the NCAA). Nobody runs harder than Wesley, and barring injury, I don’t know that any non-AQ back is in for a bigger season.
Also, much like Moore, look for Wesley to take on a bigger role in 2011, with both quarterback Andy Dalton and top wide receiver Jeremy Kerley now collecting NFL paychecks.
Wide Receiver: While Stephen Garcia got the offseason pub for “Player who almost threw his career away thanks to alcohol,” Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd finished a close second. A DUI arrest this spring was Floyd’s third alcohol related offense in his short time in South Bend, and nearly cost him his career.
What’s interesting of course, is that Floyd was still even on the Notre Dame campus to begin with. You know, since last spring he could’ve easily cashed in the green of the Irish for the green of an NFL contract. Based on pure football skill, Floyd would’ve almost assuredly been a first round pick.
But Floyd decided to come back, and when it comes to on the field production, few are better. Despite battling major injuries for parts of his career, Floyd still has the most touchdown catches in Notre Dame history (28), and has another season to add onto that. He had 12 in 2010 alone.
Off the field, Floyd has apparently turned his life around, and it’s everyone’s hope (including this writer’s) that he can stay out of trouble and just focus on football.
When he does that, there aren’t many any better.
Offensive Line: Boise’s Nate Potter could very be not only the best offensive lineman in non-AQ college football, but just plain college football in general. The 6’6 300 lb. Potter will very likely be a first round pick in next spring’s NFL Draft.
On The Spot: Hey Casey Pachall, welcome to college football! As your first order of business, all you’ve got to do is replace a guy who threw for 60 touchdowns over the last two years, and won 37 games over the last three. Not to mention, was also recently honored as one of Time Magazine’s “30 Most Influential Redheads Under 30.” No pressure or anything Casey!
Look, anyone saying that they know what to expect out of the new TCU quarterback is either lying or Gary Patterson. There’s no middle ground. Luckily, with Wesley at running back and Antoine Hicks on the outside, Pachall at least has a chance to succeed. Especially if TCU’s defense can even be half as good as it was last year.
Then again, poor Pachall is in kind of a no-win situation at the same time. No matter what he does, it’s going to be next-to-impossible for him to get out of the big, bright-red shadow that Dalton left behind.
Regardless, there isn’t anyone (short of the guy replacing Cam Newton) who is “On the Spot,” quite like Pachall is this year.
Busting Out: Because of the nature of non-AQ’s in general, it’s hard to pick a guy ready to “bust out.” After all, these were under-recruited players to begin with, competing at schools that by nature we don’t pay close enough to as it is. So as much as I’d like to throw out the new starting outside linebacker at North Texas as a guy to watch out for, I won’t bother. You guys are too smart for me to pull a fast one like that.
Anyway, I’m rambling, so with that said, let’s go with someone who isn’t completely off the radar and head down to Central Florida, where quarterback Jeff Godfrey is poised to improve on his breakout freshman year.
Godfrey recently made headlines as part of the collateral damage in the Nevin Shapiro case (Godfrey was said to have dealt with Shapiro when he was recruited by Miami), but on the field, was sneaky good last year. As a true freshman, Godfrey completed a respectable 66 percent of his passes in 2010, and threw for 13 touchdowns, while running for nine more.
Expect an even bigger and better 2011 for the sophomore.
Wildcard: Another category, and another Conference USA quarterback. But this time, instead of going with an inexperienced sophomore, we’ll go with a sixth-year senior, Case Keenum.
Truthfully, this guy is the definition of “Wildcard.” Two years ago, Keenum threw for a still-hard-to-comprehend 5,671 yards and 44 touchdowns, and in the process led Houston to 10 wins, including seven in their first eight games. Last year, Keenum was on his way to another statistically absurd season, throwing for just under 600 yards in two games, before being lost for the year in Week 3 against UCLA.
So what should we expect from Keenum in 2011? It’s kinda impossible to say. Assuming he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think that Keenum won’t put up more huge numbers, in theory anyway. That’s especially true since Houston returns its top two wide receivers off last year’s team.
Remember this though: The year that Keenum put up his monster numbers, don’t forget that his offensive coordinator was current West Virginia head coach, and resident mad genius, Dana Holgorsen. Considering Holgorsen’s prowess in turning Brandon Weeden into a stud last year at Oklahoma State, the case for Keenum (see what I did there?) needs to be made: Did the quarterback make the system? Or did the system make the quarterback?
That my friends, is a Wildcard if I’ve ever seen one.
Defense:
Defensive Line: There’s no doubt that when you’re talking about the best defensive line combination in non-AQ football, the edge has to go to Shea McClellin and Billy Winn of Boise. McClellin in specific had a monster 2010 season, with 9.5 sacks.
With that said though, we’re going to go way off the map to Huntington, West Virginia and Marshall University, to make the case for defensive end Vinnie Curry. Curry led the nation with 94 total tackles last year, and wasn’t too shabby rushing the passer either, finishing 2010 with 12 sacks.
Curry’s not a name you might not know now, but believe us, you should get to know it. NFL teams certainly do.
Linebacker: Well, now you’ve done it.
How dare you?
Who do you think you are anyway?
Wondering what you did yet? Well, you made me choose between my two favorite linebackers not just at non-AQ schools, but in all of college football: Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o and TCU’s Tank Carder.
If you’re going to insist that I choose one, I’d probably have to take Te’o. He’s not as big as Carder (although certainly not small), but is just as physical, and probably faster. Not to mention that when Noah Webster put the term “sideline-to-sideline defender,” in his first Dictionary, he had Te’o in mind when doing so (Ok, so maybe it didn’t happen exactly like that. But you get the point).
As for Carder, well he’s pretty much all those things that Te’o is, except with just a hint more craziness to him.
Wait, why are you making me choose again? Can’t I just have both?
Defensive Back: It really wasn’t my intention to go with so many Boise State guys in this preview, but with so much talent, that’s just kind of how things ended up. What can I say? The Broncos are a pretty darn good team.
Either way, of every defensive back at a non-AQ school, go ahead and give me Boise’s George Iloka. The senior safety was an All-WAC pick last year, and is durable, starting 27 straight games over the last two years.
On The Spot: So to all those BYU fans wondering why we haven’t mentioned college football’s newest independent, now seems like as good a time as any. Let’s rock and roll.
On offense, the Cougars should be just fine. They return basically everyone of substance, including emerging quarterback Jake Heaps, emerging running back J.J. Di Luigi and emerging wide receiver McKay Jacobson. Heaps, Di Luigi and Jacobsen. Sounds like pretty much the worst law firm ever, if you don’t mind me saying.
Anyway, I digress, because as good as the offense is, the defense will likely struggle, at least in the secondary, where only senior safety Travis Uale returns. Uale will have a lot of work to do to get the young troops in order, especially with a stacked early schedule that includes trips to Ole Miss and Texas, and visits from Utah and Central Florida to Provo, all by the end of September.
For a team as talented as BYU, all those games are winnable. But with such a young secondary too, they are just as loseable. Mr. Uale, you’re on the spot.
Busting Out: We’ve discussed Notre Dame at length in this preview, in large part because they’re a legit Top 15 team. Because of it, there aren’t a lot of “Busting Out,” candidates on Brian Kelly’s roster, but one that comes to mind is freshman defensive end Aaron Lynch.
Lynch was part of Kelly’s vaunted first full recruiting haul, one that saw three elite, frontline defensive players, sign with the Irish. Stephen Pruitt and Ishaq Williams were joined Lynch in South Bend, but at 6’6 260 lbs., and with a full spring practice under his belt, it appears the latter to be the most likely to step up.
Wildcard: Ok, so he’s not a Wildcard, but I just wanted to throw Navy defensive end Jabari Tuani in here.
Why throw him in? Well, because coach Ken Niumatalolo believes he’s one of the best defensive ends to ever play at the Naval Academy. And because Tuani, who had 15.5 tackles for loss last year and 72 tackles overall, has the stats to back it up.
And because this is my column, and I just wanted to write the words “Jabari Tuani.” Take that.
Coaches:
Hottest Seat: Whether anyone wants to admit it or not, the stakes aren’t quite as high at most non-AQ schools (save Notre Dame), meaning that the hot seats just aren’t as hot either.
Of the obvious hot seat candidates, the one that most comes to mind is Tulane’s Bob Toledo. For all the success the guy had UCLA, he can’t seem to come anywhere close to replicating it the same at Tulane, where’s he’s got a not-so-sparkling 13-35 record in his four years at the school.
Also, we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention Mike Locksley at New Mexico. Granted Locksley is only in his third year, so the hot seat is quite smoldering yet. But whenever you’re 2-22 through those first two years (with one of those wins against winless New Mexico State last year), you’re always a candidate to lose your job.
Up and Coming: You’d think that with so many young coaches trying to establish themselves at the non-AQ level, there’d be plenty of up-and-coming talent here. If only it were that easy.
Looking across the board, there really aren’t a lot of great choices. The best and the brightest in the Mountain West (Gary Patterson, Chris Petersen, Troy Calhoun) aren’t really up-and-coming, and it’s the same story in Conference USA, where George O’Leary, June Jones, Mike Price and Toledo give the conference an almost “Island of Misfit Coaches,” feel to it. The MAC has also been stripped of its best of late, with Butch Jones (Central Michigan for Cincinnati), Al Golden (Temple for Miami), Jerry Kill (Northern Illinois to Minnesota) and Mike Haywood (Miami of Ohio for Pitt for the unemployment) all exiting stage left within the last two years. Kevin Sumlin lost quite a bit of his luster with Houston’s disappointing 5-7 record last year.
In the end, the best bet is Southern Miss’s Larry Fedora. Fedora isn’t young at 48, but is still young enough, and if he continues to win, will likely get a serious look from either a second-tier SEC school (paging Ole Miss!) or maybe even someone out of the Big XII as well. In three years as the head man in Hattiesburg, Fedora has gotten the Golden Eagles to three bowl games, and with quarterback Austin Davis back this year, should have no problem going four for four.
Top Technician: Couldn’t you make the case that June Jones is one of the top technicians anywhere?
It doesn’t seem to matter whether he’s on Hawaii or the mainland now at SMU, his run-and-shoot offense always seems to put up stats. Last year the Mustangs finished 21st in the country in passing with junior Kyle Padron under center, and with nine starters back on offense in 2011, there’s no reason to believe they won’t be one of the top offenses in college football.
Chris Petersen is a good candidate here too, and Gary Patterson’s defenses are second to none, literally.
But go ahead and give me Jones.
Games:
Cupcake City: Simply put, there isn’t a single non-AQ club whose schedule I would consider “cupcake city.” With so much revenue generated by guarantee games, small, non-AQ schools have no choice but to go on the road and play major schools, sometimes two or three weeks in a row.
So while no one’s schedule is “easy,” I’d say that Ohio’s is probably most manageable. A year after losing 43-7 at Ohio State in one of those guarantee games, the Bobcats toughest out of conference opponent is a road trip to Rutgers, which is arguably one of the worst, of all AQ conference schools. From there, their non-conference opponents are at New Mexico State (2-10 last year), I-AA Gardner-Webb at home, and Marshall in Athens a week later. The Bobcats also avoid MAC heavyweight Toledo, and get both Temple and Miami (OH) (each expected to be top teams) at home.
Death March: The biggest reason I’m not keen on TCU this year has nothing to do with new quarterback Casey Pachall. It does have everything to do with the schedule however.
Look closely, and you’ll see that TCU’s four toughest games are all on the road. That’s right, amongst Baylor, Air Force, Boise and San Diego State, not a single one of them comes in Ft. Worth. To make matters worse, two of them are in the first two weeks of the season… at Baylor on college football’s opening Friday night, and at Air Force a week later.
For that reason alone, I expect TCU to finish no better than 10-2 this year.
Game of the Year: As I just mentioned, I don’t expect TCU to finish undefeated this year, but that hardly takes away from their matchup with Boise on the Blue Turf on November 12.
If the non-AQ’s are serious about having a National Championship contender, it could all come down to this.
Predictions:
Let’s make a quick run through the conferences:
Conference USA: Too much Jeff Godfrey. Too much George O’Leary. Give me UCF over Houston for the conference crown.
MAC: Toledo won five of their last seven games to close 2010, and return 19 starters this year. And unlike fellow MAC heavyweights Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Temple, they didn’t lose their head coach in the offseason either.
Mountain West: Boise for all the reasons already mentioned. There’s plenty of talent, the best quarterback in the conference, and their toughest game at home. There’s no reason to believe that this team can’t get back to a BCS bowl game, after a one year hiatus.
Sun Belt: Your guess is as good as mine, but Mario Cristobal has been building things up at Florida International for a few years now. Coming off the first bowl win in school history, I’ll take them to win the conference outright in 2011.
WAC: With Hawaii replacing basically their whole offense except Bryant Moniz, and Nevada doing likewise without Colin Kaepernick, the play here is Fresno. Robbie Rouse returns to Fresno, after rushing for over 1,100 yards last year.
Independents: Obviously the club that I expect the most from is Notre Dame. With their schedule, and their returning talent, nine wins and a BCS bowl game seems feasible.
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