The bickering in the Lone Star State this off-season might have you thinking that no one in the Big 12 is happy.
Texas A&M hates the Longhorn Network to the point that the Aggies are leaving the conference for a league where they could very well be cast off into oblivion. Texas fans can’t ogle 14-year-old football players in high definition like ESPN promised them. Baylor is fretting over an impending financial apocalypse.
Dan Beebe? He sees vultures circling overhead his cubicle next to DeLoss Dodds’ office at conference headquarters in Dallas.
Yet, if the Big 12 is going down, it’s going down guns blazing. The conference has three teams ranked in the preseason top 10 in both major polls, more than any other league. That trio includes the consensus No. 1 team in Oklahoma.
The new-look Big 12 may not be long for this world, but it’s in position to go out with a bang.
Offense
Best Quarterback: Landry Jones, Oklahoma.
If there’s one thing the Big 12 knows, it’s quarterbacks. Guys like Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State and Baylor’s Robert Griffin III would almost certainly start at 90 percent of FBS programs this year.
It’s a virtual toss-up between Landry Jones of Oklahoma, Weeden and Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M for top honors. Jones gets the nod in this case, though, because he won the conferene last season while working with a brutally inefficient running game. The Sooners essentially put the offense on Jones’ back all year, and he delivered a conference championship.
Best Running Back: Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M
As good as the Big 12 is in terms of QBs, the opposite is true at running back. Cyrus Gray proved last season that he can carry the Aggies’ water, and he really gets the preseason designation as the league’s best back almost by default.
This is a seriously weak group of tailbacks.
Best Wide Receiver: Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
The wide receivers in the Big 12 are even better than the quarterbacks.
With Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles and Jeff Fuller opting to stay in school for one more year, the three best pass catchers in the country not named Alshon Jeffrey all call the league home.
Stinks to have to pick just one, but Blackmon takes the cake. He stretches the defense, gets after the jump ball and is big enough to create separation both downfield and on quick timing patterns.
Best Offensive Lineman: Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State
The Iowa State Cyclones probably won’t win more than four or five games this season. If it’s any consolation, though, ISU does happen to have the best offensive lineman in the league, Kelechi Osemele.
He may be toiling away in obscurity up in Ames, but Osemele isn’t going unnoticed by the NFL. An honorable mention pick on last year’s All-Big 12 team, Osemele’s size (6-6, 354 lbs.), athleticism and nastiness have scouts salivating.
On the Spot: Texas Offensive Line
For as well as Mack Brown stockpiles talented players at Texas, there’s a glaring shortage of quality blockers walking the streets of Austin lately.
Two years ago, QB Colt McCoy’s mobility and improvisational wizardry masked the Longhorns’ underwhelming offensive line play. Last season, though, the unit tuned into a tire fire, unable to protect signal caller Garrett Gilbert with any consistency and opening few holes in the run game.
Now, new line coach Stacy Searles from Georgia is responsible for getting UT’s big uglies ready for Bryan Harsin’s Boise State-like offense. Until the blocking improves, Harsin will face significant limitations on his ability to install the power running game that both he and Mack Brown covet.
Busting Out: James Franklin, Missouri
Remember all those great quarterbacks I mentioned earlier? We’ll be mentioning Missouri’s James Franklin in the same breath at the end of the season.
While Gary Pinkel’s aerial attack tends to get all the play, his spread definitely benefits from a QB who can tuck it under and run when the play isn’t there. A dual-threat passer out of Texas, Franklin definitely fits that bill. Expect him to roll up even bigger numbers this season than Blaine Gabbert did in ’10.
Wildcard: Garrett Gilbert, Texas
Hometown hero Garrett Gilbert’s first year as Texas’ starting quarterback didn’t go nearly according to plan. He has had to fight for his job in the off-season, and the buzz in Austin is that he came out on top of the Longhorns’ four-man competition.
The reality is that if UT hopes to fast track its rise back to the top of the Big 12 and college football world this year, Gilbert has to be the one to lead the Burnt Orange. If the junior Gilbert can’t move past his dreadful 2010, Texas’ coaching staff will have no choice but to pull the plug and play a youngster like true freshman David Ash. That will seriously limit this squad’s upside this year.
Defense
Best Defensive Lineman: Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas
Mountainous defensive linemen with 4.2 40s don’t exactly grow on trees in Big 12 country like they do to the south and east of the Plains States. You’re more likely to find dynamic speed rushers like Texas sophomore Jackson Jeffcoat.
Nagging injuries put the clamps on a promising start to Jeffcoat’s freshman campaign, but when he was at full speed, he was a force. With Aldon Smith and Jeremy Beal and the rest of the old guard off to the pros, Jeffcoat will likely become the most devastating down lineman in the conference.
Best Linebacker: Travis Lewis, Oklahoma
Aside from a broken toe, what’s not to like about Oklahoma weakside linebacker Travis Lewis? He has led the Sooners in tackles for three consecutive seasons, notching nearly 400 stops in his career. He has picked off eight passes in that time, too, and made the all-conference team three years.
Yet, Lewis brings far more to the table than just tons of tackles and turnovers. He is the emotional leader of the Sooner D and de facto team spokesman. OU can certainly survive Lewis’ absence to start the season, but no one in Norman likes the idea.
Best Defensive Back: Jamell Fleming, Oklahoma
For a while, it looked like OU would be without the services of senior cornerback Jamell Fleming in 2011. In an off-season filled with plenty of bad news for OU, Fleming’s return from academic issues made for a nice pick-me-up.
Fleming will pair with running mate Demontre Hurst to give Oklahoma the best cornerback combo in the country.
On the Spot: Oklahoma’s Fill-in Linebackers
Multi-year starter Austin Box’s tragic death in the off-season left a huge hole in the middle of the Sooner D, not only in terms of athletic ability but leadership. In steps third-year sophomore Tom Wort at middle linebacker to replace Box’s savvy and uncanny knack for finding the ball.
Travis Lewis’ broken toe in fall camp makes that leadership void all the more glaring. Talented sophomore Corey Nelson will take over in Lewis’ absence and will have to play like every bit the all-star his mentor is if the Sooners are to survive an early trip to Florida State.
Busting Out: Missouri Defense
Would it surprise you to know that the Missouri defense finished 2010 ranked 28th in the nation in total defense? (Football Outsiders rated Mizzou the 16th-best defense overall on the year using its innovative F+ metric.)
Although the offensive fireworks at Missouri generate the headlines, the Tigers have developed a sneaky good group on the other side of the ball under no-nonsense coordinator Dave Steckel. Zaviar Gooden leads a salty crew of linebackers. Mizzou does have to replace DE Aldon Smith, a top 10 selection in the NFL draft in the spring, but the front four is solid, too.
Wildcard: Oklahoma State Front Seven
The Cowboys have a national championship O. The Pokes are relying on veteran coordinator Bill Young to get a D featuring seven new starters up to par. Five of those new starters will be in the OSU front seven, where star DE Ugo Chinasa has graduated.
Coaches
Hottest Seat: Mack Brown, Texas
OK, let’s get one thing straight: Mack Brown isn’t going anywhere. It would take at least another 5-7 season to get that kind of talk started. Even then, the talk would like be more “under your breath” than “boardroom debate.”
Still, the debacle of last fall took a substantial dump on the reputation of Texas’ head coach, who canned a number of long-time cronies in the fallout. Now, Brown is embracing the notion of remaking his team from the inside out and counting on his whiz kid coaching staff to help him regain a measure of his rep.
Up and Coming: Paul Rhoads, Iowa State
Cyclone fans won’t like hearing this, but Iowa State is far from a destination job. Credit high-energy head man Paul Rhoads for taking the gig from Gene Chizik and running with it.
Unlike your Nick Sabans and Urban Meyers, Rhoads doesn’t take himself too seriously and happily uses whatever unconventional means are necessary to promote his program. He delivers a helluva post-game speech, too.
Bottom line is that other coaches may be winning more games, but none seem to enjoy their job more than Rhoads.
Top Technician: Joe Wickline, Oklahoma State
When you think of college football’s true savants, Joe Wickline doesn’t get mentioned all that often. That’s what happens when you’re the offensive line coach at Oklahoma State.
Wickline may go about his business quietly, but the results he gets from his players on an annual basis speak volumes. Behind – or, more accurately, in front of – all those runners and passers putting up video game offensive numbers is an offensive line as well schooled as you will find.
Games
Cupcake City: Oklahoma
Yes, there’s a formidable non-conference test awaiting the Sooners in Tallahassee on Sept. 17. In terms of Big 12 play, though, the schedule actually looks pretty manageable. The Red River Shootout is at the Cotton Bowl, per usual. A&M, Mizzou and Texas Tech all travel to Norman. The season finale at Stillwater isn’t ideal, but OU has had its share of success there in the past.
Death March: Oklahoma State
Oh, Dan Beebe, Mr. T. Boone Pickens would like a word with you.
Who knows what the Cowboys did to piss off the folks in the league office, but they have road games at Texas, A&M and Missouri this season.
Game of the Year: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Dec. 3)
The Big 12 schedule-makers opted to push the Bedlam game back to the first weekend in December to keep the conference relevant late in the year. This season, it looks like they will get their wish, as the in-state rivals meet in a game that could serve as the de facto Big 12 championship.
Predictions
Back in the dark ages when the Big 12 had a conference championship game, Bob Stoops and the Oklahoma Sooners made it their personal playground, winning seven of eight appearances in the span of a dozen years. Now that the league has ditched the title game, has the time come for someone to end that run of dominance?
Probably not this year.
I could plow through and explain the strengths and weaknesses of every team, but why complicate things?
OU has the best coach in Big 12 history. OU has the most favorable schedule of any of the legitimate contenders for the conference crown. OU has a decent edge in talent on every team in the league except for, arguably, Texas – a team that won five games in 2010 and is going through a massive overhaul on both sides of the ball.
Even with the unexpected hits sustained on defense, the defending Big 12 champs are in better position to win the league than every other team in every meaningful way.
It may be a new day in the Big 12, but for now, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Here’s what the rest of the Crystal Ball Run staff has to say:
Aaron Torres: What I find most interesting about the Big XII this year is that despite losing two teams, overall this may be the “strongest” I can remember the conference being overall. For so long the Big XII came down to Texas or Oklahoma, Oklahoma or Texas, with another school (maybe a Texas Tech) competing every so often. But, ultimately, whoever won in the Cotton Bowl in October almost always took home the crown.
Well, this year, I feel like there are three really good teams, all of which with the right breaks can take home the conference crown. Oklahoma State basically returns everyone on offense and could – in theory – have be the most explosive offense overall in the country. Texas A&M has the most dynamic pass-run combo in Tannehill and Gray, and Texas and Baylor should be pretty good, too. Missouri is always dangerous, and I expect better things from Kansas State, as Bill Synder works his old-man, moth-ball-induced magic.
Ultimately, though, I find it impossible to bet against Oklahoma. They’ve got a quarterback who should be the overwhelming Heisman favorite (I’m not saying he’s the most talented, but is in the right offense at the right time); great receivers with Ryan Broyles, Kenny Stills (who, to his credit, Allen has been telling me about before he even enrolled) and DeJuan Miller; and plenty of emerging young talent at running back, too. The offensive line is experienced after taking some lumps a few years ago, and the defense is stacked, too, despite some losses to both injury, and the unfortunate death of Austin Box.
With that said, Allen hit on the biggest point, the schedule. The Sooners get A&M and Missouri at home (their two losses last year), and even though they go to Oklahoma State, the Sooners don’t ever actually seem to lose there.
It isn’t impossible to envision Oklahoma getting tripped up and maybe losing a game at some point in conference play.
But overall, give me the Sooners to represent the conference in the Fiesta Bowl… if not in New Orleans playing for a title.
Tom Perry: Oklahoma passes the smell test with me. Allen is right. OU has the best coach and the best players. So all is right in the Big 12.
But for some reason I just feel this is the year that Oklahoma State figures it out. I keep envisioning No. 1 Oklahoma at 11-0 traveling to Stillwater on Dec. 3 to play No. 3 Oklahoma State at 11-0. Kirk Herbstreit would actually wet himself if this happens, and I actually worry about Allen’s state of mind during the week.
It would be another wild game, and somehow Mike Gundy’s team finally wins a big one… sort of like Texas Tech beating Texas a few years ago.
OK, maybe I’m daydreaming, but it could happen.
Michael Felder: It seems appropriate that the league with Missouri, the “Show Me State,” would have the “show me” tag slapped all over it. For Mizzou, show me why I should pick you to beat teams like Texas and Oklahoma that you haven’t been able to pass en route to a Big XII title. For Oklahoma State, show me why this is the year you finally get it together and win those games that will put you over the hump. For Texas A&M, show me that you’re more than hype and that last year was a start, not a finish.
Ah, and Texas, show me that you’re closer to what you were two years ago than what you were in 2010. Show me this staff overall doesn’t spell rebuild like it would at any other school in the nation. Show me that you’re committed to running the ball. Show me that you’re not asleep at the wheel.
Show me.
Until someone shows me something, I’m going to bet the favorite; Boomer Sooner.
Kevin McGuire: When I look at the Big 12, I can’t help but think this almost looks too good to be true for Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State and Missouri have failed to capture a Big 12 title since the formation of the conference, Texas is still looking to rebound from what I believe was an off-year in 2010 and Texas A&M is a team that I just can’t buy in to the hype (yet). With Nebraska moving on to the Big Ten, is there anyone that can legitimately challenge Oklahoma this season? The answer is yes, but when all is said and done, I see no reason that Oklahoma won’t once again represent the conference in the BCS rotation.
The team with the best chance to dethrone the Sooners is their in-state rival, Oklahoma State, and I would not be surprised if the two meet with a combined one loss or fewer in December. It would bring new meaning to the term “bedlam.” I’ll take the Sooners, who could be thinking about a bigger prize than another Big 12 championship.
Follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter @CrystalBallRun.
