The Pac 12 takes the field for the first time this Fall as Utah and Colorado join the conference and the league splits into two divisions – Gates and Schwarzenegger. Wait, you mean the Pac 12 didn’t give their conferences ridiculously laughable names? You mean it’s just North and South? Well, that’s disappointingly normal. Oh well, I suppose we should go ahead and preview the conference anyways…
The biggest story in the newly minted Pac 12 is obviously just that, the newly minted Pac 12 and the unfolding success of Larry Scott’s mission to slowly take over the world.
Seemingly everything the new commish has touched has turned to gold. First, there was the capture of Colorado and Utah (and rumors of moving further eastward through more inevitable expansion). Then, there was the uniquely awesome idea of holding the first Pac 12 title game on campus of the school with the best record. Finally, there was the innovative TV deal with both ESPN and Fox that will additionally see the creation of several regional networks.
There’s plenty of compelling on-field stuff too, but with all the off-field turmoil happening in college athletics, Scott is one of the few people making sense.
Players
Offense
Best QB – Andrew Luck, Stanford
Andrew Luck will win the Heisman Trophy, erase the country’s debt, and find a way to get Lou Holtz and Mark May off our television screens this year according to pundits. (You can debate for yourselves which one of those three is most important for the future of our nation.) Luck turned down a chance to be the #1 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft for one more run at Stanford. Even though Luck’s statistics don’t stand out in one area, he was Top 10 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs, and QB rating. He’s not just a pocket passer either…
As much as Cam Newton dominated the national scene in college football last year, the reigning Heisman runner-up has the starpower and the game to do the same in 2011.
Best RB – LaMichael James, Oregon
The reigning Heisman third place finisher is another frontrunner for this year’s Trophy along with Pac 12 counterpart Andrew Luck. LaMichael James led the country in rushing with 1,731 yards and finished second in TDs with 21 scores in 2010. In the regular season, LMJ was at his best in Oregon’s biggest games – 257 and 3 scores against Stanford and 239 and 3 scores at USC. James should have plenty of motivation after his numbers against Auburn though, only 13 carries and 49 yards. The virtual duel between James and Luck should be a fun one to chart throughout the season…
Best WR – James Rodgers, Oregon State
With no real superstar receivers in the Pac 12, let me go off the beaten path to Corvallis and select the other Rodgers brother. James Rodgers has been forced into the small but prodigious shadow of brother Jacquizz, but has now outlasted his younger brother at Oregon State thanks to a medical redshirt. He lost most of last season due to injury, but had over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 2009. Did you know at the time of his injury last year, Rodgers was 4th in the country at 184.3 all purpose yards per game? Oregon State will need him to produce those kind of numbers again to carry the Beavers. Too bad for Mike Riley there aren’t any more Rodgers brothers on which to lean his program on.
Best OL – Matt Kalil, USC
If the name sounds familiar, it should, because Matt’s brother Ryan Kalil was a great lineman at SC and is now a starter with the Carolina Panthers. It would be no shock at all to see Matt Kalil follow his brother to the pros, perhaps as a future first round pick in the NFL Draft.
On the Spot: Darron Thomas – QB, Oregon
There’s only one player in the country on a college campus that has started a national championship game at quarterback – Darron Thomas of Oregon. Thomas is amazing running the lightining fast spread option attack of the Ducks, but can he do it again with his legs and more importantly his arm, for a second season in a row? Thomas had 363 yards passing in the title game last year, but two costly INTs as well. He needs to keep getting better (and stay out of trouble) to take Oregon back for another trip.
Where’s the Love?: Nick Foles – QB, Arizona
If you want to win some money from your friends, ask them who led the Pac 10 in passing yards per game last season. It wasn’t Andrew Luck (256.8), but Arizona’s Nick Foles (290.1). The Pac 10 is going through a mini quarterbacking Golden Age. Luck and Matt Barkley will soon join former Washington QB Jake Locker as Top 10 NFL picks. It’s understandable that Foles would get lost in the fold although he did have one moment to shine early last season in Zona’s win over Iowa. With a full compliment of weapons returning, Foles could have another outstanding under-the-radar season in the desert.
Busting Out: WR Robert Woods, USC
The youngster starred last year as a freshman and should only get more balls from Matt Barkley with the departure of Ronald Johnson, continuing the tradition of great USC wide receivers. A dynamite returner as well, expect to see plenty of Woods’ highlights on SportsCenter this season.
Defense
DL – Junior Onyeali, ASU
Let’s see, Arizona State, talented edge rusher, that formula sounds familiar. Onyeali follows in those footsteps of Terrell Suggs as a terror to block as a pass rusher and had 6.5 sacks as a freshman last season. He’s a near universal pick across the defensive front on All Pac 12 teams across cybespace and should see those sack numbers continue to increase.
LB – Vontaze Burfict, ASU
Burfict is the best and most ferocious linebacker in the nation. He’s a popular pick as a First Team Preseason All-American… and he’s also a madman on the field who has been labeled as the meanest player in college football. If you love big hits, intensity, and an old school middle linebacker that is out to bring violence back to the game in a world that’s gone soft, make a point to watch ASU games this year…
DB – Cliff Harris, Oregon
Harris was the leading interceptor in the conference and the top punt returner as well. He is clearly the best defensive back in the Pac 12 and can be this year’s Patrick Peterson in terms of impact. In fact, Tom even put him in the running for best player in the nation last week. That makes his suspension against LSU a huge deal, especially when a loss could end Oregon’s national championship hopes before they begin…
On the Spot: John Boyett, Oregon
…which leads us to the defensive player on the spot – Harris’ secondary partner John Boyett. Boyett is no slouch himself, finishing T-2 in the Pac 12 in INTs last year with five behind Harris’ six. Oregon does get a break in the first game against LSU because Jordan Jefferson isn’t exactly Sam Bradford in the passing game. Throughout the season though, Boyett’s partnership with Harris will key Oregon’s chance at repeating in the Pac 12.
Where’s the Love?: TJ McDonald, USC
TJ McDonald has great safety play in his blood – his dad Tim was an All-American at USC and a Pro Bowler in the NFL, winning a Super Bowl with the 49ers. TJ burst onto the scene last year with 89 tackles and 3 INTs in his sophomore year at SC and continues the type of NFL talent and pedigree that has been commonplace for Trojan safeties. But, with the off-field trouble at SC, Lane Kiffin’s hot wife, and Matt Barkley’s rising star, McDonald’s true value gets lost in the shuffle.
Busting Out: Datone Jones, UCLA
Jones was favored to have a big season last year in his Junior year at UCLA, but had to miss the entire season due to injury. While the Bruin offense has been brutal in recent years, Jones’ addition will help UCLA’s defense at least keep the Bruins in games. He had four sacks as a sophomore in 2009.
Coaches
The Pac 12 may be the most fascinating coaching conference in the country (sorry, SEC/B1G fans). It’s nearly impossible to name just one coach on the hot seat or one coordinator with the most important job to do this season. Instead, here’s a short list of the coaches in the Pac 12 with the most to prove and the one word that describes their mission for 2011…
Chip Kelly – Survive
Kelly is somewhat lucky his scandal at Oregon coincided with a college football offseason that looked like a cheap, futuristic blow-up-the-earth sci fi thriller. Jim Tressel and Butch Davis didn’t survive scandals that rocked their programs, Chip Kelly has… so far. If The Vest can go though, no coach in America is ultimately “safe.” Kelly must fight a two fronted battle this season – avoid a title game loss letdown and keep the investigators and the media at bay.
David Shaw – Thrive
Can you think of a better scenario to make your head coaching debut than with the runaway frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy? New Stanford Head Coach David Shaw moves one office over to take the reigns from the departed Jim Harbaugh, who he joined at Stanford in 2007. Stanford’s offense has shown a consistent ability to succeed under Shaw’s guidance and there’s an emphatic confidence in his ability to succeed as the program’s head man.
Norm Chow – Resurrect
Chow’s strange post-USC odyssey now takes him back to his alma mater, Utah, as the new OC for the Utes. Chow was the offensive mastermind of college football in the early 2000s, but found that life was much harder without players the caliber of Palmer, Leinart, and Bush. His UCLA passing offense ranked 116th out of 120 last year. The only teams to finish behind UCLA were all triple option teams. Norm has some work to do to rebuild his reputation and Utah (with sneaky good QB Jordan Wynn) may be the perfect place to do it.
Paul Wulff – Persist
The Cougs’ rebuilding project is making the Great Pyramids of Egypt look like a rearranging of the furniture. Could this be the toughest coaching job in the country? Methinks it’s certainly in the running. Wulff’s 5-32 career record at his alma mater in Pullman isn’t exactly cause for a tidal wave of optimism, but there have been flashes of light… well, lets call them areas of less than total darkness, in the rebuild. If Wulff can somehow string a couple wins together, it can bring some hope to a Wazzu fanbase that is dying for a team that can compete with Eastern Washington.
Rick Neuheisel – Pray
At this point, only divine intervention will save Neuheisel’s job in Los Angeles. The way things have been going at UCLA, divine intervention may be needed just to get bowl eligible.
Wild Card
Gus Johnson
You can’t expect me of all people to go through a Pac 12 football preview and not mention the new voice of Pac 12 football. HA HA!!! Gus Johnson’s move to Fox was perhaps the most talked about sports media story of the spring, and this fall we’ll see him in action as he transitions from college basketball to college football. If Gus brings the same excitement he was known for from March Madness to the Pac 12 booth, it will make people want to tune into Fox for the specific reason of watching Pac 12 football. That kind of impact really can’t be underestimated in terms of the Pac 12’s profile on the national stage. If someone as popular as Gus Johnson can become synonymous with the Pac 12, it will only help the league in the long run.
Games
Cupcake City: How about this stroke of luck – in its first year in a BCS conference, Utah gets the huge break of avoiding both Stanford AND Oregon in a year where they both start the season as Top 10 teams. Talk about having the cards fall your way. Playing in the weaker South division, the only hugely difficult task the Utes face is a Week 2 road trip to the Coliseum to face USC. Other than that, the toughest conference games are vs ASU, at Cal, and at Arizona – challenges, but not games that give you nightmares when you’re a program moving up in weight class. Considering SC isn’t even eligible for the Pac 12 title game, Utah may make history in their first year in the conference.
Death March: Washington. The Huskies do not have it easy. Of course, they get North division rivals Oregon and Stanford, but they also have to play at USC and Utah on the road, the two best teams in the South. But hey, at least they get to try to win the Apple Cup in Qwest Field this year.
Game of the Year: Oregon @ Stanford Nov. 12
Clearly this game will have the most consequences for the Heisman, conference and national title pictures. It should be the most significant game in the Pac 12 by far and may be one of the most entertaining games in the nation. The two teams combined for 83 points and 1,144 yards as Oregon won a 52-31 shootout last year. Andrew Luck had over 300 yards passing and LMJ ran for over 250. This time though, the Ducks visit the Farm and the early November date has the potential to raise the stakes even higher.
Prediction
First, let’s see what our esteemed CBR staff has to say…
Tom Perry: While the North is the stronger of the two divisions, it’s still Oregon’s to lose. Chip Kelly’s offense is unstoppable until the Ducks play in a BCS Bowl. It would be a nice story for Andrew Luck to lead Stanford to a championship, but the loss of Jim Harbaugh is too much to overcome.
What’s interesting is the South. It may not be packed with the same talent as the North, but the race is somewhat wide open. Like Michael said earlier, if USC were eligible I’d go with the Trojans. But that leaves the race to Arizona State, Utah and Arizona. The Wildcats have a tough start to the season, so Mike Stoops’ team will likely be out of contention by Oct. 1. Like most everyone else, I’m going with Dennis Erickson the Sun Devils. Maybe it’s the new uniforms or maybe because Vontaze Burfict promises to be on his best behavior.
As much as I’d like to see ASU win the Pac-12 title game, I have to go with the proven Ducks.
Allen Kenney: The South division clearly lacks a squad that anyone would peg as a definitive favorite. Matt’s observations about Utah’s schedule make a compelling case for the Utes, but, honestly, I wasn’t impressed by what I saw from that team last year. It makes me wonder if that team is ready to step up in competition. I’ll take Arizona State on the strength of the Sun Devils’ nasty defense.
To the north, I’ve gone back and forth between Stanford and Oregon. I think the Cardinal has a shot to knock off the Ducks in Palo Alto in November. On the other hand, with Jim Harbaugh leaving for the pros, I have more faith in Chip Kelly and the Blur to bring it every week. Gimme Oregon.
Assuming the conference championship game is at Autzen Field, I will take the Ducks in a laugher.
Aaron Torres: Truthfully, I’m not totally sold on Oregon as a national championship contender like some, but I just don’t see anyone beating them in this conference. From what I can tell, Washington and Arizona are going to be going through re-building years, and Cal and Oregon State won’t be much better than they were a year ago. I’m not totally sold on Stanford without Jim Harbaugh, and poor Arizona State can’t seem to keep anyone healthy (although maybe that’s because Vontaze Burfict keeps knocking everyone out). Quite frankly, I think that USC might be the best team in this conference besides the Ducks, but even if they go 12-0 in the regular season, they can’t play in the Pac-12 title game.
So give me Oregon. They have the best coach, best running back and a darn good quarterback (albeit sometimes an absent-minded one) in Darron Thomas. Yes, the Ducks have questions along the lines, but have had them in the past, and always seem to get things figured out.
11-2 with a Pac-12 championship and a trip to the Rose Bowl seems about right for these guys.
Michael Felder: I’d take Southern Cal just because I’m a not so closeted Laner fan, but they can’t acually “win” the Pac-12, so that’s out.
In the South I’m going to roll the dice on Arizona State. After getting so close in 2007, going 10-3 overall and 7-2 in the league, I think Erickson’s got some of the pieces he needs to make things interesting. It also helps that in his division UCLA is on life support, USC is rolling with a skeleton crew, Arizona seems to love the November skid, Colorado is still lost in the woods and Utah of 2011 is not quite the 2008 edition.
Up north, I’ll take the popular pick of Oregon. I really have no faith in Stanford and David Shaw, even with Andrew Luck at the helm. The Cardinal have lost too much to make them appetizing for me. Jim Harbaugh was Stanford and while I don’t expect them to return to 2002-2008 form I do expect to see some crucial losses.
In the title game, I’ll roll the dice on the Sun Devils. This is not 2010 and the stars aren’t aligned for Oregon as they were a season ago. Arizona State goes to Eugene in October and if they can get to the Pac-12 title game for a second meeting they’ll be in the rare “re-match” position that helps a team fine tune their gameplan.
A risky pick? Sure, but I think getting familiar with Oregon by seeing them more than once, outside of having weeks to prepare, will be the best way to get a team ready to beat them.
Kevin McGuire: The Pac-12 may be a two-team race this season but the new era in the conference is an intriguing one to me.
I’ll start in the North, where the conference championship game will probably be played before the actual game, when Oregon and Stanford meet. To me, Oregon is still the team to beat even though I am a huge Andrew Luck fan. As long as the off-field issues don’t derail the Ducks, I think they will once again come out on top. I’m curious to see how the coaching change affects Stanford. I know Luck is going to be Heisman-worthy all year, but what will the loss of Harbaugh have on the team? His intensity translated to his team, so we’ll have to wait and see if David Shaw can do the same. Not saying he can’t, just wondering if he will.
But the South should not be forgotten and with USC out of the official mix, I’m looking for the Trojans to play the role of the motivated spoiler in the conference. Once that postseason ban is lifted I think it will be a short time until we’re talking about USC in the Pac-12 championship picture once again. But this season even though USC may be the best, the championship may go through newcomer Utah. I know Arizona State has some good things going for them but I think the way things play out for Utah can play in their favor this season. The home game against the Sun Devils is the one I believe will decide the Pac-12 South championship.
I’ll go with Oregon and Utah in their respective decisions, with the Ducks winning the trip to the Rose Bowl. No BCS title shot this season.
My Take:
The Pac 12 South takes a bit of a hit in intrigue with USC finishing out their postseason ban. They may indeed finish first in the South Division but not appear in the first Pac 12 title game. The other three contenders down south are Utah, Arizona State, and Arizona. Arizona has Nick Foles and a talented receiving corps, Arizona State has plenty of talent on defense and a senior laden (yet injury plagued) roster, and Utah enters as the mysterious, formidable newcomer. Take your pick amongst the three, but I favor Utah. For one, the schedule is much easier, missing Oregon and Stanford (that’s like picking up two bonus games) and they get main rival Arizona State at home. The Sun Devils have the roster to win, but would you put any faith whatsoever in Dennis Erickson? The Wildcats may be a dark horse pick to win the division, but still may be a year or two away from truly contending.
Up north, the debate basically comes down to that November 12th game in Palo Alto. If I have to pick right now (and I kinda have to), I’m going with Stanford. Too many intangibles are working in the favor of the Cardinal to pick against them… and they have the most influential player in college football this season. While Stanford loses a lot of pieces, there’s just too much turmoil surrounding Oregon football for me to feel comfortable to pick them winning against a Top 10 team on the road.
In predicting a Utah @ Stanford conference title game, the easy pick is Stanford. The North winner will be a heavy, heavy favorite in the first Pac 12 title game and will likely have homefield advantage as well. Utah can hang with their competition in the South Division, but will be met with a late but rude official welcome to the Pac 12 when they meet Andrew Luck. Stanford is far from perfect, but we’ve seen plenty of not-so-perfect teams win conferences and more in years past. Winning the first ever Pac 12 title game might not be the only trophy the Cardinal raise this year…
Follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter @CrystalBallRun.
Follow Matt on Twitter @MYoder84 and @AwfulAnnouncing.
