It was all going according to plan for the Mountain West Conference.
Already home to the mighty TCU Horned Frogs, perennial mid-major power Boise State joins the league this year. Losing BYU to independence hurt, but the conference was still positioning itself to take a step up in prestige and a possible automatic BCS bid.
Then, TCU decided to bolt for the Big East, and now the league is back to square one.
Jeremy Mauss manages MWC-centric blog Mountain West Connection and is one of the conference’s most outspoken advocates. Time for his turn to answer “Five Burning Questions” on his favorite college football league.
1. With TCU – wait, let’s call it Texas Christian – I just like the sound of that better. With Texas Christian leaving the conference in 2012, does it feel like the MWC remains stuck in neutral on the national scene?
Pretty much. They will be viewed as a beefed-up WAC with Boise State being the league leader. However, I can argue that adding Nevada, Fresno State and Hawai’i the league becomes much more deep. Those three teams that are coming in for the 2012 season have a history of success by going to a BCS bowl game in Hawai’i, with Fresno State and Nevada being above-average bowl teams.
Assuming San Diego State keeps their upward trajectory and Air Force stays as they have, the new Mountain West will have six above-average teams who should be bowl eligible almost every year. The average fan of the BCS leagues and even some of the national media who do not follow the league closely at all will see the MWC as just a one-team league with Boise State. I actually could see the Mountain West taking a hit nationally if Boise State is the only ranked team for a year or two and no other team cracks the rankings for a significant amount of time. That is my worry, but those who follow the league or at least do some decent research will see that the league will have more depth and should still be considered at worst the seventh-best league and on certain years as high as fifth, challenging the ACC and Big East.
2. What is the greatest misperception about the MWC?
The league is more deep than people think. Last season, three teams were in the top 25 at one point throughout the season and San Diego State was hovering around in the others receiving votes category and if not for a botched replay call at BYU, they would have been most likely ranked. Even with Utah and BYU gone, the league has a solid corp of four teams in Boise State, TCU, Air Force and San Diego State.
In my opinion any one of those four teams could win the league and could go undefeated. Boise is the favorite but every team has questions. Boise needs to break in new wide receivers, as does San Diego State, TCU is replacing Andy Dalton at quarterback and Air Force has the least to replace, but fullback is a key position that they are unsettled on, as is one of their cornerback spots.
3. If not Texas Christian or Boise, who?
As mentioned above, Air Force and San Diego State have a shot.
Air Force is returning quarterback Tim Jefferson and running back Asher Clark. Those two players are very dangerous in the triple-option game the Falcons run. The only problem is their schedule. They have a four week stretch that is brutal: at Navy, at Notre Dame, Thursday home game against San Diego State and at Boise State. While only two are conference games in that group, they are all tough. I think they can beat Boise State, because the triple option is very tough to defend and Boise State has never played against that offense.
San Diego State has the running back in Ronnie Hillman and the quarterback in Ryan Lindley, who are great players. The problem for San Diego State is the need for quality wide receivers and they have a new coach in Rocky Long. If the Aztec offense can keep humming along like last year, then they will be in every game and have a good shot at winning those games.
4. Give us a player who may not be a “name” nationally, but will have a big hand in determining how the conference plays out this season.
This is tough. I will go with Air Force quarterback Tim Jefferson. This is partially due to the triple-option offense that Air Force runs. It is confusing and difficult to defend. However, the difference for Jefferson is that he has a good arm and can beat defenses that cheat by moving up their cornerbacks and safeties by throwing over the top on the deep ball. He is a senior now and does not make those rookie mistakes. Also, back to the throwing game, he led the Mountain West in yards per attempt at 9.2 and had a gaudy 17.79 yards per completion.
A lot of love went to Navy’s Ricky Dobbs, but Jefferson is on that same level, and he is looking to rush for 1,000 yards and pass for 1,750 yards. If he does that then there is a good chance that Air Force can win the Mountain West.
5. Is tailgating in Provo everything I imagine it would be?
If you thought it would be non-existent, then you would be correct.
Follow Crystal Ball Run on Twitter at @CrystalBallRun.
Keep up with Jeremy on all the happenings in Mountain West at Mountain West Connection.
