Throughout the week, we at Crystal Ball Run are debating and discussing the biggest stories in college football in a series we call “Meeting of the Minds.” Check out this morning’s roundtable discussion on how conference realignment will shake out. Now we’re moving on to the reclamation projects underway at Texas and Florida.
Allen Kenney: I don’t think anyone could have predicted the huge drop-offs we saw in Austin and Gainesville. Now, both Texas and Florida are essentially starting over from scratch. Which program gets back to an “acceptable” level of success first?
Texas is a strange situation, in my opinion, because Mack Brown prefers a more CEO-like approach as a head coach. He’s banking on having hired the right guys this off-season, and he has never worked with any of them before. To a large degree, the Longhorns’ future is in the new hires’ hands.
As a Nick Saban disciple, Will Muschamp will take a more direct role in the on-field product, especially the Gators defense. You can count on his fingerprints being all over his team.
Long term, Florida’s approach appears more stable, assuming Coach Boom is everything he’s been made out to be. Right now, though, I can see UT getting back to that annual threshold of 9-10 wins quicker. The SEC is some tough real estate, and UF will have to contend with getting through Alabama, LSU, Auburn from the SEC West and Georgia and South Carolina in its own division. (Maybe even Texas A&M, too – that should strike fear into some Gator hearts.)
Texas has a massive talent edge on every program in the Big 12 not named Oklahoma. One 5-7 season, as stunningly awful as it was, is no reason to think the rest of the conference can overcome that personnel advantage every year.
Kevin McGuire: I think Texas being quicker to rebound is a legitimate expectation, but Florida may have the better team quicker. As Allen said, Florida plays in a much tougher conference and Muschamp is going to be a fine recruiter for them. Head to head, the Gators will most likely be the favorite should they meet Texas, but I would count on the Longhorns making a return to the BCS table sooner than the Gators.
Tom Perry: What happened at Texas last year was a blip. The Longhorns were without their leader Colt McCoy and it appeared no one really stepped up and filled that void. You almost got the feeling that Mack Brown and his staff had become complacent, along with the players. Texas had talent last year and everyone just thought they could roll out and whip anyone they played. Well, we learned how much talent there really is out there in college football and you can’t take good teams for granted.
That said, Texas is going to rebound big this year. I don’t see the Longhorns beating Oklahoma or Okie State, but I like them to finish third and beat aTm.
Florida is another story. The Gators were one of the most undisciplined teams in the nation, and it felt like Urban Meyer sort of mailed in last season. Once Tebow left his heart just wasn’t in it any longer. The Gators have talent and will continue to get top talent. However, what Jimbo Fisher is doing at Florida State could have a bigger overall impact on the Gators than what any team can do to Texas’ recruiting. I like Texas in the long run.
Matt Yoder: The money from the Longhorn Network is only going to cement the long-term greatness of Texas. Last year was a blip as Tom pointed out and the competition aspect alone leads me to answer Texas. Mack Brown has won a national championship as a head coach. At Florida, his former protege Will Muschamp is going to his first rodeo, and it’s a big one. I’m not saying he’ll be Ron Zook, but the last place I would want to be a first year head coach is in the SEC. With the talent great at both places, the stability at Texas and the competition make them the answer to have more success quicker.
Michael Felder: I’m going to weigh in and just say it now; respect “The Process.” The Process has won 2 national titles. The Process has been to plenty of BCS Bowls. The Process has 2 teams in the Top 10. The Process is the single greatest thing in college football right now.
Will Muschamp is a believer in The Process and he’s far from Mack Brown’s protege. He’s Nick Saban’s guy. That is who created this animal that is going to take the SEC East back with brute force. Much like I’ll bet on The Process to overtake the ACC and resurrect Tennessee, I’ll bet on The Process over Mack Brown trying to keep his ship floating through flooding the zone with hiring and infiltrating every level of Texas football.
Muschamp’s hired well too and he’s a hands on, excited ball coach that is going to max out his players effort. This is his team now and after seeing the looks of disdain on his face during Texas’ campaign last year I don’t think he will be anything like Mack. The Process doesn’t afford for a season long tailspin. The Process doesn’t walk into a room midway through the year and try to go back to the drawing board.
Most importantly The Process doesn’t allow for no running game and panicking from the players.
Cast your lot with a Mack Brown trying to re-engineer things in Austin. Me? I take The Process.
Tom Perry: Michael sure loves him some Will Muschamp.
Matt Yoder: Did I just have a spell cast on me?
Michael Felder: I love Nick Saban. I think Jimbo, thanks to CNS, is going to pulverize folks in the ACC.
Matt Yoder: As great as The Process may be, I think it’ll take some time at Florida. Is The Process powerful enough to save John Brantley?
Michael Felder: Some time? The cupboard isn’t bare; this isn’t a rebuild. They’ve been recruiting at an elite level for the entire time that Urban Meyer was at the helm. Muschamp brought in quality kids. The staff is well experienced, and, most importantly, they’re good teachers.
If Brantley gets “saved” or not, I expect solid quarterback play out of the Gators. Muschamp landed the target he wanted for the future and if Jeff Driskell is pressed into action early then so be it.
Matt Yoder: Neither school is your prototypical rebuild, and the talent at Florida is certainly there… as it is at Texas. But as AK pointed out in the intro, Texas has a massive edge over everyone not named Oklahoma in the Big XII (for as long as it actually stays together). Will Muschamp can have an outstanding first year at Florida and still lose 3-4 games. If we’re calling the talent even, or giving Florida a slight edge, for that matter, there is still far less work for Texas to do to get back to the top, even though they admittedly had a rougher year last year. It’s all about the path of least resistance.
Now if the Horns lose to Iowa State again, I’ll reconsider…
Michael Felder: I think the paths are about as similar as possible – LSU, Bama, Sakerlina and Georgia versus OU, Okie State, aTm and Mizzou? Where’s this massive difference that we’re talking about from a schedules standpoint? For one, Bama cycles off the schedule after this year, and South Carolina’s set to return to the pack with departures of Stephen Garcia and probably Alshon Jeffrey. Throw in UGA and the Mark Richt era slowly fading in the last three years, and I’m not seeing the clear “advantage” Texas has. Especially playing 9 conference games.
Allen Kenney: Chances are that A&M is going to be off Texas’ schedule pretty soon and be replaced by Houston. But I don’t want to digress.
Michael raised the most interesting point in all of this to me. In some ways, Mack Brown seems to treat his coaching staff like picking an all-star team. Rather than having an overarching philosophy or system and working within that, he seems to prefer identifying talented coaches, bringing them aboard and then letting them do their thing.
One way to think about it: Try defining “Mack Brown football.”
Will Muschamp worked for Mack and undoubtedly picked up his share of pointers at Texas. But I think you’d have a hard time convincing anyone that he’s anything less 95 percent Saban. That means managing all the fine points in the day-to-day running of the team – the ones a “CEO coach” tends to delegate. Not only that, but carrying those things out his way, and coaching his coaches in that system, too.
Both approaches can be successful, but it seems like the Muschamp/Saban model sets up for longer-term consistency.
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