After Michael Felder opened up the Crystal Ball Preseason Preseason Top 10 by disccussing the South Carolina Gamecocks this morning, it’s time to head to the Big XII, and discuss the Oklahoma State Cowboys. After taking home one-third of last year’s Big XII South title, can they win things outright this year? Or, with Dana Holgorsen now at West Virginia, will it be back to the drawing board?
Matt Yoder of Awful Announcing discusses:
Crystal Ball Run Preseason Top 10
No. 9 – Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State in a Word: Explosive
From a scintillating offense to a porous defense, to fresh new facilities funded by uber-billionaire T. Boone Pickens, and even to a head coach who is still a man… the Oklahoma State program is all about explosiveness. If you love exciting, high-scoring football games, this is your team. A team that finished 3rd in the NCAA last season in points per game (44.2) returns 10 starters on offense for the coming season, including 2010 Bilitnekoff Award winner Justin Blackmon. On the other side, the 61st ranked scoring defense loses seven starters, including leading tackler Orie Lemon. Pistol Pete will be right at home this season with plenty of shootouts expected.
Why Oklahoma State Will Live Up to Billing:
Justin Blackmon. He may be simply the most gifted player in college football and a surefire Heisman candidate in 2011. Give Oklahoma State credit, it has become a wide receiver’s paradise. From Rashaun and D’Juan Woods to Dez Bryant and now Blackmon, the Cowboys have developed quite the tradition of talented pass catchers. Blackmon finished 3rd in the FBS in receptions (111), 2nd in receiving yards (1,782) and 1st in receiving TDs (20) last year. With Brandon Weeden tossing him the rock once again, I’d be stunned if all of those numbers don’t continue to improve in his junior season.
Why Oklahoma State Will Disappoint:
Take a look at OSU’s most important games of the last three years – 47 points allowed versus Oklahoma and 51 points versus Nebraska in 2010; 41 points versus Texas in 2009; and 56 and 61 versus Texas Tech and OU, respectively, in 2008. Now, those may be decent numbers for Travis Ford, but not Mike Gundy. The key play of OSU’s season last year was a 3rd and 12 late in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma, trailing 33-31. Of course, the Oklahoma St. defense responded by allowing an 86-yard TD pass from Landry Jones to Cameron Kenney. That wasn’t all though. After the ensuing kickoff return was sent in for a Cowboys TD, OSU was down 40-38 still with two timeouts and needing a stop to get the ball back. Two plays later, it was a 76-yard TD pass to James Hanna that finally finished the Cowboys.
If that sequence doesn’t perfectly describe Oklahoma State football, I don’t know what does. Greg Robinson could improve this defense. Maybe Mike Gundy should give Don Nelson or Mike D’Antoni a call to try and find a way for his players to toughen up on defense and actually consider stopping somebody. Come to think of it, I’ve seen more defensive intensity from Roger Dorn. Oklahoma St. can score all the points it wants, but until the Pokes show even the slightest ability to slow down their top competition, they’ll be a fun-to-watch team that goes no further than the mid-teens in the polls.
Key Game: Oklahoma (Dec. 3)
Without a Big XII title game this year, the Bedlam Series may in fact be the de facto championship tilt in the Big XII That’s Really X. As I just mentioned, Oklahoma State showed it could trade touchdowns with Oklahoma, but could never get the stop needed in the fourth quarter, losing 47-41. The Cowboys have slowly turned into a legit top 15 program under Mike Gundy, but have never been able to get over the Boomer Sooner hump. A putrid record of 17-81-7 all time is highlighted by eight straight losses against Oklahoma, the last three of which came with OSU ranked in the top 12. In the last two meetings in Stillwater, Oklahoma St. has scored 41 in each and lost by 20 and then 6. If the Cowboys hold the Sooners under 45 this year, they may have a chance to finally get a victory.
On the Spot: Joseph Randle
With all the talk of Oklahoma St.’s offensive success and 10 returning starters… it’s the one replacement who will be the most pivotal element to OSU’s success. Sophomore runner Joseph Randle fills the shoes of the vastly underrated Kendall Hunter and will need to provide balance on the ground for the dynamic passing attack of the Cowboys. As a freshman, Randle averaged 5.5 yards a carry in spot duty. The four-star recruit has the talent, but can he provide enough consistency and explosiveness in the running game to keep the offense firing with all chambers filled?
Final Verdict:
Oklahoma State was done no favors by the new round-robin Big XII schedule. The Cowboys get rival Oklahoma at home, but travel to Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas. If they can somehow get through those three road games unscathed, the Bedlam Series game could have all the makings of the most important game in series history.
Undefeated seasons, a conference title and even a national title berth could all be on the line.
Best Case Scenario: 13-0, Big XII and BCS champs. This team can very well be this year’s Oregon, and I don’t see any newly wealthy Juco transfers walking into any SEC schools… yet.
Worst Case Scenario: 8-5. Oklahoma State crumbles on the road against its toughest tests and is demoralized again by big brother Oklahoma. The Cowboys then allow 98 points to Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl. Mike Gundy removes his defense from the field in the fourth quarter and attempts to stop Northwestern on his own, finding relative success.
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Follow Matt on Twitter @MYoder84.
