Folks, the off-season is upon us, meaning that college football news is just…about…set…to slow down to a trickle. The champion has been crowned, Signing Day has come and gone, and we are still another few weeks away from Spring Ball kicking off. These are dire times to be a college football fan.
Thankfully at Crystal Ball Run, we’ve got you covered. Our motto here is that “If there’s not news to report on, we’ll make it ourselves!” Sure I just made up that motto in the last 30 seconds, but believe me, it’s still one we take quite seriously.
Which is why starting today, we as a staff have decided to give you a conference by conference breakdown of what off-season story lines to look at, as what you need to watch for heading into spring ball and through the summer. Granted, we may still be 207 days and counting away from the first Saturday of the season, but that doesn’t mean we have to wait until then to start talking college football.
As for the previews themselves, it only seems appropriate that we start in the SEC, home of the six-time defending BCS National champions. That’s right, Nick Saban’s boys are kings of college football, but believe me when I say, they are hardly the only big story line in town.
As a matter of fact, things may be more interesting than ever heading into this off-season. Here are 10 things to look out for:
10. Can Hugh Freeze Restore Some Pride In The Palmetto State?
If you’re a regular reader at Crystal Ball Run, you know that over time, we’ve had some fun with former Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt. And by “having fun,” what I really mean is “Made fun of him mercilessly, to the point that if one of his family members stumbled across this website, they’d probably sue for defamation.” (Then again, Nutt is also in the process of collecting checks on a $6 million buyout over the next few years. Maybe he’s the one getting the last laugh after all).
Yup, that’s right, Nutt was nothing if not an unmitigated disaster at Ole Miss. But rather than reliving it all; the losses to Vandy and Kentucky, the cavalcade of transfers into and out of the program, and the defeat by umm… Jacksonville State, maybe the thing that stung Ole Miss fans above everything else is this: For the first time since the 1940’s, the Rebels have lost three straight Egg Bowls to Mississippi State. That might not mean much to you, but they’re none too happy about it in Oxford.
Which is where Hugh Freeze comes in.
The truth is that nobody in Oxford expects their new coach to build a powerhouse program over night, or for that matter, even get to bowl eligibility next year. What’s most important though, is restoring a little bit of pride. This program has become both a laughingstock off the field, and on it, things are even worse. As we just mentioned, it’s one thing to lose to Alabama and LSU. It’s quite another to get tripped up by Vandy and Kentucky.
Well Freeze is in town, and seems like the perfect man to lead this program going forward. He’s a Mississippi guy, who looks at the Rebs program as a destination job and not a stepping stone, and above all wants to restore a little respect back into the proceedings. Oh, and the fact that he won 10 games at Arkansas State this year doesn’t hurt all that much either.
Whether wins or loses come is kind of secondary at this point, as much as restoring pride in the program.
And oh, if Freeze can notch a win or two over Dan Mullen and State? They might just build the guy a statue.
9. You Down With DGB?
In case you hadn’t heard, there will be two new teams at the SEC rodeo this fall. But while the welcome red carpet has been rolled out big-time for Texas A&M, what everyone seems to forget is that Missouri is coming to the Southeastern Conference with them. And interestingly, the Tigers are the team better built to win right away. Mizzou returns quarterback James Franklin, 1,000 rusher Henry Josey and a good portion of their defense, and also get the benefit of playing in the “weaker” Eastern Division. Although really isn’t calling anything weak in the SEC just kinda stupid?
But of all the reasons to like Missouri this fall, the best one comes in the form of one, three-letter acronym: DGB, aka Dorial Beckham-Green, the No. 1 recruit in high school football this past fall. By 
now you know his story as well as we do, as the 6’6 Missouri native turned down overtures from basically every school in the country to stay home, and re-write history in the Show Me State.
Now of course the question becomes, can one man- especially a wide receiver- change the culture of a football program? It seems unlikely, but if there’s one man who can do it, it’s DGB. If the kid is even half as good as advertised, he will automatically step into the SEC and be amongst the league’s best receivers (although Justin Hunter and Malcolm Mitchell might have something to stay about that), as well as a downright terrifying red zone threat. At worst, he’s a significant upgrade over anyone the Tigers have, and should help improve their 62nd ranked passing attack.
To which I ask: You down with DGB? Missouri fans sure are.
8. How Healthy Is Marcus Lattimore’s Knee:
Lost in the shuffle of the first 11-win season in South Carolina history, is the fact that the Gamecocks essentially did it all without their best player. While Alshon Jeffery and the defense got all the headlines in Columbia, star running back Marcus Lattimore spent most of the season on sidelines, after injuring his knee early in the year.
Well, Lattimore will spend the spring rehabbing his knee, and should be healthy come fall, and if you don’t mind me saying: Myyyyyy goodness will South Carolina need him at 100 percent for Week 1. Remember, despite being an 11-win team in 2011, the Gamecocks relied heavily one of college football’s best defenses (as well as the freakish athleticism of Jeffery) to pull out a handful of close games. Offensively they finished just 73rd nationally, buoyed in large part by a couple of big, early season performances (yeah, we’re looking at you Kentucky). Simply put, South Carolina just wasn’t all that good on offense in 2011.
Meaning that for things to pick up in 2012, they’ll need a major return to form from Lattimore. The soon-to-be junior finished with over 1,100 yards as a freshman, and maybe even more impressively put up over 800 in less than half a season in 2011. And with developing quarterback Connor Shaw, and no clear-cut go-to receiver, more than ever, the success and failures of this offense will fall on Lattimore’s shoulders and legs.
7. What The Heck Should We Expect From Florida’s Offense?
Of every unit in the SEC entering the spring, none is shrouded in more secrecy and downright confusion than Florida’s offense.
Looking at them realistically, there really are no answers to any of the basic questions. As things stand, we don’t know the quarterback will be (it’ll be an open competition between Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel), who will get the bulk of the carries at running back (Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey are gone), or even if there’s a go-to wide receiver (Deonte Thompson is gone, and Trey Burton is more H-Back then pass catcher). Heck, at this point we don’t even know what scheme they’ll be running; Brent Pease comes to Gainesville as the new offensive coordinator from Boise State, where the Broncos literally threw everything but the kitchen sink at opposing defenses.
And what’s maybe scariest for Florida, is that it’s not like they had a lot of answers to begin with. Florida ranked just 73rd nationally in scoring last season at just over 20 points a game, and only seemed to get worse as the season went on. Other than a late season win over an FCS opponent, the Gators didn’t score over 26 points in any of their last eight games.
So what should we expect down in Gainesville? The unexpected… and not a lot of points.
That is, unless Pease has some magic up his sleeve.
6. How Good Were Alabama’s Defensive Backups This Year?
If we’ve learned anything through the years, it’s that Nick Saban is known for two things (besides his killer smile of course): Winning a lot of football games on the field, and winning even more recruiting battles off of it. Well entering 2012, to do the former, he’s going to have to hope that the latter has worked out well for him through the years.
That’s because looking over Alabama’s defensive depth chart right now is like getting acquainted in your dormitory the first day of your freshman year of college: Essentially, there are a whole lot of new faces. Gone are stalwarts like Dre Kirkpatrick, Dont’a Hightower and Mark Barron, not to mention Courtney Upshaw, Josh Chapman and DeQuan Menzie. A few familiar names like Quinton Dial, Jesse Williams and Nico Johnson will be back, but not nearly enough to make Crimson Tide fans- or Saban for that matter- truly comfortable.
Which is where Saban’s recruiting prowess comes in. According to Rivals.com, the Crimson Tide have pulled in three top ranked recruiting classes in the last four years, and frankly, Saban will need those guys to step up. Those outside Tuscaloosa might not be familiar with names like Trey DePriest (linebacker), John Fulton (cornerback) or Dee Milliner (corner) now, but as fans nationally, we’re all going to get to know them quickly.
And if they can gel together? Well there’s enough on offense where the Crimson Tide can again be a National Championship contender.
We’re still a long way away from that, though.
5. Is Texas A&M Ready For The Rigors Of The West?
We already touched on a bit of realignment chatter in the DGB segment of this preview, but just know this: For all the inherent advantages that Texas A&M has over their fellow Big XII realignment buddy Missouri, it’s the Tigers who have a much better chance at success in their first season in the SEC. Texas A&M plays in the tougher division and returns less talent, not to mention is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff. Kevin Sumlin may end up a Hall of Famer at some point in his career for all we know. But in the present, he inherits nothing short of a mess in College Station.
Speaking of which, what is a realistic expectation for A&M entering year one in the SEC? We all know the coaching will be better, but what does that mean when you’ve added LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn to the schedule? Is six wins and bowl eligibility too much to ask for Sumlin in year one?
We’re going to find out.
The truth is, when Texas A&M moved from the Big XII to the SEC, it was to improve their national brand, academic standing, and oh yes, their football program too. Wins are expected, even if the talent on the field indicates they probably shouldn’t be.
You ready Coach Sumlin? The pressure is on.
4. How Hot Is Derek Dooley’s Hot Seat Exactly?
If you’re to believe the local media in Knoxville, Derek Dooley’s seat isn’t just hot, but downright scotching. Crystal Ball Run has even been told by a reliable source that Dooley knows that if he can’t get to eight wins, he could be out the door in Knoxville.
Luckily for him, things should be as manageable in 2012, as they have been since he arrived three years ago.
Entering 2012, Florida and South Carolina appear set to take a step back (for reasons listed above), and Vanderbilt isn’t quite yet at the peak on the upward trajectory James Franklin currently has them on. Missouri is a total wild card at this point, meaning that really only Georgia stands in the way as a clear road block to the top of the SEC East standings. The Vols also benefit from a manageable home schedule, with both the Gators and Alabama coming to Rocky Top. Arkansas and LSU- who were both on the schedule in 2011- are gone in 2012. Meaning there’s no reason that the wins on the field shouldn’t increase exponentially next season.
As for the actual guys on the field, well on offense the Vols should be downright explosive. Tyler Bray has as big an arm as anyone in college football, and super-freak wide receiver Justin Hunter (who had 17 catches in just two and one quarter games last year) returns from a knee injury. So too do fellow wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers and tight end Mychal Rivera. The defense will definitely be a work in progress, but does bring back stud freshman A.J. Johnson.
With Dooley, there’s no doubt that the pressure is on. But if everyone can stay healthy and on track, the Vols should be able to work through it, and win a lot of football games.
3. Is It Arkansas’ Time?
I know, I know, it seems like every year we ask “Is this when Arkansas breaks through,” before they go on to win a whole lot of football games, before falling at the hands of LSU and Alabama. Obviously you can’t blame the Hogs for that (especially since Alabama and LSU were the consensus No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country last year), but still, at some point, if they want to be taken seriously, they’ve got to knock one of those big boys off.
Well, if there was ever a year to do it, this would be it. Arkansas returns All-SEC quarterback Tyler Wilson to the fold, along with Knile Davis, who could very well be the best running back in college football next year. Davis missed all of last season with an ankle injury, but in 2010 rushed for over 1,000 yards.
Then there’s the schedule, which incredibly is actually quite manageable given the circumstances. The Hogs get manageable games against Kentucky and at South Carolina, with the other tough road game at Auburn. However, the home slate is the one to watch out for, as both LSU and Alabama come to town.
Again, we’re not saying this is definitively the year for Bobby Petrino’s boys. But if they’re ever gonna do, now would be a pretty good time.
2. How Good Can LSU Be?:
Look, at this point, Crystal Ball Run has already gone way, WAY in-depth about just how talented the 2012 LSU Tigers can be. As you probably know, they return plenty of talent all over the defense, plenty of playmakers on offense, and the best stable of running backs in the game. They also have the benefit of playing Alabama at home, as opposed to in Tuscaloosa.
Now the only question that remains is whether Zach Mettenberger is ready or not at quarterback. Again, you all know the story of the former Georgia quarterback who ended up on the Bayou, by way of junior college. Well, with both Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee now gone, he is the man.
He’s also the only thing standing between another LSU run to a title, and…
1. No. 7
You know it, I know it, we all know it. Until someone knocks off the SEC as the top dogs, they’ll be the kings of college football.
Can the conference claim its seventh straight National Championship?
We’re going to start to find out soon enough.
For all his insight, opinion and analysis on sports, be sure to follow Aaron Torres on Twitter @Aaron_Torres, as well as the entire Crystal Ball Run staff @CrystalBallRun.
